nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒11
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. The Emergence of the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - insights from early modern academics By Thomas Baudin; David de la Croix
  2. When Women's Work Disappears: Marriage and Fertility Decisions in Peru By Mansour, Hani; Medina, Pamela; Velasquez, Andrea
  3. When It Hurts the Most: Timing of Parental Job Loss and a Child's Education By Bingley, Paul; Cappellari, Lorenzo; Ovidi, Marco
  4. CEO Stress, Aging, and Death By Borgschulte, Mark; Guenzel, Marius; Liu, Canyao; Malmendier, Ulrike
  5. The interplay between refugee inflows and media coverage in determining attitudes towards immigration in Germany By Chia-Jung Tsai; R. Gordon Rinderknecht; Emilio Zagheni

  1. By: Thomas Baudin (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille); David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between family size and human capital among academics in Northern Europe over the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution. To measure scholars' human capital, we develop a novel and consistent approach based on their publications. We find that scholars with a high number of publications shifted from having more siblings to having fewer than others during the first half of the 18th century. This shift is consistent with an evolutionary growth model in which the initial Malthusian constraint leads the high human capital families to reproduce more, before being endogenously substituted by a Beckerian constraint with a child quality-quantity tradeoff. Our results support a reinterpretation of the Galor and Moav (2002)'s approach, in which the decline of Malthusian constraints is linked to human capital accumulation during the 18th century.
    Keywords: Fertility, Human Capital, Premodern Europe, Universities, Academies, Evolution, Natural Selection, Malthusian Stagnation
    JEL: O11 O40 J11 J13 N13 N33
    Date: 2023–08–14
  2. By: Mansour, Hani (University of Colorado Denver); Medina, Pamela (University of Toronto); Velasquez, Andrea (University of Colorado Denver)
    Abstract: This paper studies the gendered labor market and demographic effects of trade liberalization in Peru. To identify these effects, we use variation in the exposure of local labor markets to import competition from China based on their baseline industrial composition. On average, the increase in Chinese imports during 1998-2008 led to a persistent decline in the employment share of low-educated female workers but had smaller and transitory effects on the employment of low-educated men. In contrast to the predictions of Becker's model of household specialization, we find that the increase in import competition during this period increased the share of single low-educated people and decreased their marriage rates. There is little evidence that import competition affected fertility decisions. The results highlight the role of gains from joint consumption in marriage formation.
    Keywords: import competition, marriage formation, fertility
    JEL: J16 J12 J13 J23
    Date: 2023–08
  3. By: Bingley, Paul (VIVE - The Danish Centre for Applied Social Science); Cappellari, Lorenzo (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Ovidi, Marco (Catholic University Milan)
    Abstract: We investigate the stages of childhood at which parental job loss is most consequential for their child's education. Using Danish administrative data linking parents experiencing plant closures to their children, we compare end-of-school outcomes to matched peers and to closures hitting after school completion age. Parental job loss disproportionally reduces test taking, scores, and high school enrolment among children exposed during infancy (age 0-1). Effects are largest for low-income families and low-achieving children. The causal chain from job loss to education likely works through reduced family income. Maternal time investment partially offsets the effect of reduced income.
    Keywords: parental labor market shocks, intergenerational mobility, child development
    JEL: J13 D10 I24
    Date: 2023–08
  4. By: Borgschulte, Mark (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Guenzel, Marius (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania); Liu, Canyao (Yale University); Malmendier, Ulrike (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: We assess the long-term effects of managerial stress on aging and mortality. First, we show that exposure to industry distress shocks during the Great Recession produces visible signs of aging in CEOs. Applying neural-network based machine-learning techniques to pre- and post-distress pictures, we estimate an increase in so-called apparent age by one year. Second, using data on CEOs since the mid-1970s, we estimate a 1.1-year decrease in life expectancy after an industry distress shock, but a two-year increase when anti-takeover laws insulate CEOs from market discipline. The estimated health costs are significant, also relative to other known health risks.
    Keywords: managerial stress, life expectancy, apparent-age estimation, job demands, industry distress, visual machine-learning, corporate governance
    JEL: G34 I12 M12
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Chia-Jung Tsai (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); R. Gordon Rinderknecht (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: In this study, we examined the role media plays in moderating the relationship between refugee influx and anti-immigration attitudes across German regions. Specifically, we focused on the salience of refugees in local news media in each region, and we explored the extent to which such attention heightened the connection between increasing refugees in an area and growth in anti-immigration views. We conducted this analysis using data from the German Socio-Economic-Panel (2011-2017), asylum applications data from the Federal Office of Statistics, and the Gdelt database, which is a real-time news database. Using a mixed effect approach, we found that the effect of refugee influx on anti-immigration attitudes across regions was moderated as expected by the salience of refugees in local news, albeit in former East Germany but not in former West Germany. We contend that this difference between East and West Germany relates to East Germany’s relatively stronger ethnonationalist attitudes. Based on this, we conclude that refugee salience in media plays an essential, albeit inconsistent, role in characterizing changes in population composition as threatening, and thus in triggering anti-immigration attitudes.
    Keywords: Germany, attitude, immigration, media, refugees
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023

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