nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒04
eight papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, University of Wisconsin

  1. When death was postponed: the effect of hiv medication on work, savings and marriage By Mette Ejrnæs; Esteban García-Miralles; Mette Gørtz; Petter Lundborg
  2. Mothers at Work: How Mandating a Short Maternity Leave Affects Work and Fertility By Girsberger, E. M.; Hassani-Nezhad, L.; Karunanethy, K.; Lalive, R.
  3. Exposure to the One-Child Policy and Fertility among Chinese Immigrants to the US By Lin, Siyuan; Argys, Laura M.; Averett, Susan L.
  4. Prenatal Sugar Consumption and Late-Life Human Capital and Health: Analyses Based on Postwar Rationing and Polygenic Indices By van den Berg, G.J.;; von Hinke, S.;; Wang, R.A.H.;
  5. GWAS 2.0: Correcting for Volunteer Bias in GWAS Uncovers Novel Genetic Variants and Increases Heritability Estimates By Sjoerd van Alten; Benjamin Domingue; Jessica Faul; Titus Galama; Andries Marees
  6. Should Representativeness be Avoided? Reweighting the UK Biobank Corrects for Pervasive Selection Bias due to Volunteering By Sjoerd van Alten; Benjamin Domingue; Jessica Faul; Titus Galama; Andries Marees
  7. Tightening access to early retirement: who can adapt? By Bernhard Boockmann; Martin Kroczek; Natalie Laub
  8. Climate Migration Amplifies Demographic Change and Population Aging By Hauer, Mathew

  1. By: Mette Ejrnæs (University of Copenhagen and CEBI); Esteban García-Miralles (Banco de España); Mette Gørtz (University of Copenhagen, CEBI and IZA); Petter Lundborg (IZA and Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: Longer life expectancy can affect individuals’ incentives to work, save and marry, net of any changes in their underlying health. We test this hypothesis by using the sudden arrival of a new treatment in 1995 that dramatically increased life expectancy for HIV-infected individuals. We compare the behavioural responses of HIV-infected individuals who were still in good health but who differed in their access to the new treatment. Those with access to treatment work substantially more, marry later, but do not save more. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for such incentive effects when valuing increases in life expectancy.
    Keywords: esperanza de vida, empleo, matrimonio, VIH
    JEL: D84 I12 J12 J21
    Date: 2023–06
  2. By: Girsberger, E. M.; Hassani-Nezhad, L.; Karunanethy, K.; Lalive, R.
    Abstract: Switzerland mandated a 14-week paid maternity leave in 2005 when many firms already offered a similar benefit. While the mandate had only small and temporary effects on labor market outcomes of first-time mothers, it raised the share of those having a second child by three percentage points. Women employed in firms with prior paid leave sharply increased their subsequent fertility. In contrast, women employed in other firms did not change their fertility behaviour, but instead saw a persistent increase in their earnings after birth. This pattern of results suggests that firms with pre-mandate leave passed on (some of) their resulting cost-savings to their employees - “trickle down effects” - by making their maternity leave more generous than mandated, hiring temporary replacement workers and/or supporting mothers’ return to work in other ways.
    Keywords: Female labor supply; maternity leave; return-to-work; earnings; fertility
    Date: 2022–12–19
  3. By: Lin, Siyuan (Lehigh University); Argys, Laura M. (University of Colorado Denver); Averett, Susan L. (Lafayette College)
    Abstract: We examine whether women exposed to China's one-child policy (OCP) change their fertility decisions when they migrate to a country without fertility restrictions. Using American Community Survey data (2010–2020), we compare the childbearing decisions of Chinese-born women with varying degrees of exposure before migrating to the US to each other and a control group of other Asian immigrants. We find that Chinese women aged 35-45 exposed to the OCP for a longer duration have significantly fewer children than women who were not exposed to the OCP. These findings are robust to several specification checks.
    Keywords: fertility, one-child policy, immigrants, China
    JEL: F22 I15 J13 N35
    Date: 2023–07
  4. By: van den Berg, G.J.;; von Hinke, S.;; Wang, R.A.H.;
    Abstract: Maternal sugar consumption in utero may have a variety of effects on offspring. We exploit the abolishment of the rationing of sweet confectionery in the UK on April 24, 1949, and its subsequent reintroduction some months later, in an era of otherwise uninterrupted rationing of confectionery (1942-1953), sugar (1940-1953) and many other foods, and we consider effects on late-life cardiovascular disease, BMI, height, type-2 diabetes and the intake of sugar, fat and carbohydrates, as well as cognitive outcomes and birth weight. We use individual-level data from the UK Biobank for cohorts born between April 1947–May 1952. We also explore whether one’s genetic “predisposition†to the outcome can moderate the effects of prenatal sugar exposure. We find that prenatal exposure to derationing increases education and reduces BMI and sugar consumption at higher ages, in line with the “developmental origins†explanatory framework, and that the sugar effects are stronger for those who are genetically “predisposed†to sugar consumption.
    Keywords: nutrition; food consumption; gene-environment interplay; education; developmental origins;
    JEL: I12 I18 I15 D45
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Sjoerd van Alten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Benjamin Domingue; Jessica Faul (University of Michigan); Titus Galama (University of Southern California); Andries Marees (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Selection bias in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) due to volunteer-based sampling (volunteer bias) is poorly understood. The UK Biobank (UKB), one of the largest and most widely used cohorts, is highly selected. We develop inverse probability weighted GWAS (WGWAS) to correct GWAS summary statistics in the UKB for volunteer bias. Across ten phenotypes, WGWAS decreases the effective sample size by 62% on average, compared to GWAS. WGWAS yields novel genome-wide significant associations, larger effect sizes and heritability estimates, and altered gene-set tissue expressions. The extent of volunteer bias’s impact on GWAS results varies by phenotype. Traits related to disease, health behaviors, and socioeconomic status were most affected. These findings suggest that volunteer bias in extant GWASs is substantial and call for a GWAS 2.0: a revisiting of GWAS, based on representative data sets, either through the development of inverse probability (IP) weights, or a greater focus on population-representative sampling.
    Keywords: selection bias, UK Biobank, inverse probability weighting
    JEL: C25 C83 H51
    Date: 2023–08
  6. By: Sjoerd van Alten (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Benjamin Domingue; Jessica Faul (University of Michigan); Titus Galama (University of Southern California); Andries Marees (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: We investigate to what extent volunteer-based sampling of large-scale biobanks biases associations and estimate inverse probability (IP) weights to correct for such bias. Using the UK Biobank (UKB) as an example of a large-scale volunteer-based cohort, and population-representative data from the UK Census as a reference, we compare 21 bivariate associations in both data sets. Volunteer bias in all associations as naively estimated in the UKB is substantial, and in some cases leads to estimates of the wrong sign. For example, older individuals in the UKB report being in better health. Correcting for volunteer bias using IP weights is therefore advised. Applying IP weights reduces 87% of volunteer bias on average and suggests volunteer-based sampling reduces the effective sample size of the UKB to ∼32% of its original size. To aid the construction of the next generation of biobanks, we provide suggestions on how to best ensure representativeness in a volunteer-based design.
    Keywords: volunteer bias, inverse probability weighting, sample size
    JEL: C25 I18 C83
    Date: 2023–08
  7. By: Bernhard Boockmann; Martin Kroczek; Natalie Laub
    Abstract: We study heterogeneity in the effects of two pension reforms in Germany that closed pathways into early retirement: the abolition of an old-age pension scheme for women and the abolition of a pension after unemployment or part-time work. We focus on heterogeneity with respect to several occupational characteristics. Both reforms had significant effects on individual employment states, and in both cases the effects differ significantly by occupation. The positive effect on employment is smaller in occupations with higher job strain and, in case of the old-age pension for women, the effect on unemployment is larger. The effects also differ by occupational tasks, PC use and the introduction of new technologies.
    Keywords: Pension reforms, effect heterogeneity, occupational demands, occupational tasks
    JEL: J18 J22 J26
    Date: 2023–07
  8. By: Hauer, Mathew
    Abstract: The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modelled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change – enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas. Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 years of environmental migration in the US to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible RCP-SSP scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6M - 28M [5.7M - 53M] – 5.3 to 18 times the number of migrants (0.4M - 10M). We also project a significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases – up to 10+ years older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.
    Date: 2023–07–25

This nep-dem issue is ©2023 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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