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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Pashchenko, Svetlana; Porapakkarm, Ponpoje; Jang, Youngsoo |
| Abstract: | How should we compare welfare across pension systems in presence of differential mortality? A commonly used standard utilitarian criterion implicitly favors the long-lived over the short-lived. We investigate under what conditions this ranking is reversed. We clearly distinguish between the redistribution along mortality and income dimensions, and thus between mortality and income progressivity. We show that when mortality is independent of income, mortality progressivity can be optimal only when (i) there is more aversion to inequality in lifetime utilities compared to aversion to consumption inequality, (ii) life is valuable. When the short-lived tend to have lower income, mortality progressivity can be also optimal when income redistribution tools are limited. In this case, mortality progressivity is used to substitute for income progressivity. |
| Keywords: | Mortality-related redistribution, Pensions, Social Security, Annuities, Life-Cycle Model |
| JEL: | G22 H21 H55 I38 |
| Date: | 2023–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117936&r=dem |
| By: | Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dmitri A. Jdanov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); David A. Leon |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-032&r=dem |
| By: | Liliana P. Calderón Bernal (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Diego Alburez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Genealogies are promising sources for addressing many questions in historical and kinship demography. So far, an incomplete understanding of the biases that affect their representativeness has hindered their full exploitation. Here, we report on a series of experiments on synthetic populations aimed at understanding how different sources of bias in ascendant genealogies can affect the accuracy of demographic estimates. We use the SOCSIM demographic microsimulation program and data for Sweden from the Human Fertility Collection (1751-1890), the Human Fertility Database (1891-2022), and the Human Mortality Database (1751-2022). We analyze three sources of bias: selection in direct lineages, incomplete reconstruction of family trees, and missing information on some subpopulations. We evaluate their effect by comparing common demographic measures estimated from ‘perfectly-recorded’ and ‘bias-infused’ synthetic populations. Our results show that including only direct lineages leads to an underestimation of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (c.a. −39% or 0.61 times lower) before the onset of fertility decline, and an overestimation of life expectancy at birth (e0) over the first two centuries (c.a. +42.2%). However, after adding selected collateral kin, the accuracy of the estimates improves: TFR is underestimated by only −0.11% during the first century and e0 is overestimated by only +1.5% over the whole period. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-034&r=dem |
| By: | Jangyoun Lee (Incheon National University); Hyunduk Suh (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.78, reaching the state of super low fertility, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for old generations. |
| Keywords: | super low fertility, OLG model, housing markets, housing supply, LTV policy |
| JEL: | J11 J13 R21 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2023-2&r=dem |
| By: | Jonathan Heathcote; Fabrizio Perri; Giovanni L. Violante; Lichen Zhang |
| Abstract: | Heathcote et al. (2010) conducted an empirical analysis of several dimensions of inequality in the United States over the years 1967-2006, using publicly-available survey data. This paper expands the analysis, and extends it to 2021. We find that since the early 2000s, the college wage premium has stopped growing, and the race wage gap has stalled. However, the gender wage gap has kept shrinking. Both individual- and household-level income inequality have continued to rise at the top, while the cyclical component of inequality dominates dynamics below the median. Inequality in consumption expenditures has remained remarkably stable over time. Income pooling within the family and redistribution by the government have enormous impacts on the dynamics of household-level inequality, with the role of the family diminishing and that of the government growing over time. In particular, largely due to generous government transfers, the COVID recession has been the first downturn in fifty years in which inequality in disposable income and consumption actually declined. |
| JEL: | D12 D31 E21 H53 J31 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31486&r=dem |
| By: | Adriana Corredor-Waldron; Janet Currie |
| Abstract: | Rising reports of suicidal behaviors in children and adolescents have led to the recognition of a youth mental health crisis. However, reported rates can be influenced by access to screening and changes in reporting conventions, as well as by changes in social stigma. Using data on all hospital visits in New Jersey from 2008-2019, we investigate two inflection points in adolescent suicide-related visits and show that a rise in 2012 followed changes in screening recommendations, while a sharp rise in 2016-2017 followed changes in the coding of suicidal ideation. Rates of other suicidal behaviors including self-harm, attempted suicides, and completed suicides were essentially flat over this period. These results suggest that underlying suicide-related behaviors among children, while alarmingly high, may not have risen as sharply as reported rates suggest. Hence, researchers should approach reported trends cautiously. |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31493&r=dem |
| By: | Farré, Lídia (University of Barcelona); Felfe, Christina (University of Würzburg); Gonzalez, Libertad (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Schneider, Patrick (University of Würzburg) |
| Abstract: | Social norms are an important barrier to gender convergence. We show that public policy designed to promote gender equality at home can pave the way towards gender convergence by shaping gender norms in the next generation. We combine the introduction of paternity leave in Spain with a large-scale lab-in-the field experiment in secondary schools. Following a local difference-in-differences approach, we show that children born after the policy change exhibit more gender egalitarian attitudes and perceive less stereotypical social norms. They are also more likely to engage in counter-stereotypical day-to-day behaviors and to deviate from the male-breadwinner model in the future. |
| Keywords: | gender equality, gender norms, paternity leave permits |
| JEL: | J08 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16341&r=dem |