nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒08‒21
ten papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Assessing the Fertility Effects of Childcare Cost Subsidies: Evidence from the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit By Averett, Susan L.; Wang, Yang
  2. Only-child matching penalty in the marriage market By Keisuke Kawata; Mizuki Komura
  3. The long-term integration of refugee children:Swedish experiences after the Yugoslav Wars By Åslund, Olof; Liljeberg, Linus; Roman, Sara
  4. The Demographic Challenges to Ukraine’s Economic Reconstruction By Maryna Tverdostup
  5. The integration of migrants in the German labor market: Evidence over 50 years By Berbée, Paul; Stuhler, Jan
  6. Education and Later-life Mortality: Evidence from a School Reform in Japan By Kazuya Masuda; Hitoshi Shigeoka
  7. Racial Discrimination in Child Protection By E. Jason Baron; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Natalia Emanuel; Peter Hull; Joseph P. Ryan
  8. Extended School Day and Teenage Fertility in Dominican Republic By Santiago Garganta; María Florencia Pinto; Joaquín Zentner
  9. Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: More Restrictive Gun Laws Mitigate the Effect of Temperature on Violence By Jonathan Colmer; Jennifer L. Doleac
  10. Mental Health in European Economics Departments By Macchi, Elisa; Sievert, Clara; Bolotnyy, Valentin; Barreira, Paul

  1. By: Averett, Susan L. (Lafayette College); Wang, Yang (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) on fertility and parental investment in children. The CDCTC aims to support working parents but its availability only to families with children incentivizing having more children or increasing investment in existing ones. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the National Center for Health Statistics' Natality data, we analyze the effects of state-level CDCTC policies on fertility and birth outcomes. Results indicate that the CDCTC increases labor force participation rates for married mothers, potentially suppressing fertility rates. Additionally, it has a positive effect on gestational age.
    Keywords: fertility, birth outcomes, child and dependent care tax credit
    JEL: I38 J13
    Date: 2023–06
  2. By: Keisuke Kawata (Institute of Social Sciences, University of Tokyo); Mizuki Komura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: This study explores the marriage matching of only-child individuals and its outcome. Specifically, we analyze two aspects. First, we investigate how marital status (i.e., marriage with an only child, that with a non-only child and remaining single) differs between only children and non-only children. This analysis allows us to know whether people choose mates in a positive or a negative assortative manner regarding only-child status, and to predict whether only-child individuals benefit from marriage matching premiums or are subject to penalties regarding partner attractiveness. Second, we measure the premium/penalty by the size of the gap in partner's socio economic status (SES, here, years of schooling) between only-child and non-only-child individuals. The conventional economic theory and the observed marriage patterns of positive assortative mating on only-child status predict that only-child individuals are subject to a matching penalty in the marriage market, especially when their partner is also an only child. Furthermore, our estimation confirms that among especially women marrying an only-child husband, only children are penalized in terms of 0.57-years-lower educational attainment on the part of the partner.
    Keywords: marriage matching; only children; gender; machine learning
    JEL: J11 J12 J14 J16
    Date: 2023–07
  3. By: Åslund, Olof (Uppsala University, Department of Economics); Liljeberg, Linus (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Roman, Sara (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: We study the economic and social integration of refugee children. The analysis follows war refugees arriving from former Yugoslavia to Sweden in the early 1990s for up to 25 years. We find strong educational and economic integration, although differing by age at migration and gender. By contrast, segregation is striking in family formation. Those under 7 at migration had grades and high school completion on par with natives. Poor initial school performance among teenage refugees was partly compensated by education at higher ages. By 2019 there was on average full labor market assimilation among women while a small gap remained among men. However, refugees arriving before school start outperformed their native peers. Endogamy was common; even among preschoolers, 60–70 percent had their first child with a partner of Yugoslavian descent. Many of the partners migrated after the refugee had turned 20. Intermarriage is gendered and related to socioeconomic status. Residential and workplace segregation decreased over time but remained pronounced among people without tertiary education.
    Keywords: Refugee children; migrants; economic and social integration
    JEL: F22 J15 J18
    Date: 2023–06–27
  4. By: Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Even before the war started, Ukrainian demographic prospects were almost uniquely negative, even in the context of CESEE. Ukrainian population declined steadily over last decade and the war has significantly worsened Ukraine’s already negative demographic outlook, to the extent that a shortage of labour, particularly in certain parts of the country, is highly likely to be one of the main challenges of post-war reconstruction. Our findings show that, regardless of our assumptions regarding the duration of the war and further military escalation, Ukraine’s population will not return to its pre-war level even in 2040, and the decline will be most pronounced in the working-age population. Although the population will rise somewhat in the years following the war, as soon as return migration flows run low, the population dynamic will turn negative again. Simulated population size ranges between 34.6m and 35m in 2040, which is around 20% below the 2021 level, with an improved fertility rate and declining mortality having very limited capacity to offset the rapid population decline. Our results suggest that over 20% of refugees will not return after the war, with many of those being working-age Ukrainians and their children, resulting in a long-lasting negative impact on Ukraine’s population and reconstruction prospects.
    Keywords: Ukraine, demographic trends, outward and return migration, post-war reconstruction
    JEL: J11 J13 O15
    Date: 2023–07
  5. By: Berbée, Paul; Stuhler, Jan
    Abstract: Germany has become the second-most important destination for migrants worldwide. Using all waves from the microcensus, we study their labor market integration over the last 50 years, and document key differences to the US case. While the employment gaps between immigrant and native men decline in the first years after arrival, they remain large for most cohorts; the average gap one decade after arrival is around 10 percentage points. Income gaps are instead widening with time spent in Germany. Differences in educational and demographic characteristics explain how those gaps vary across groups, and why they widened over time: accounting for composition, integration outcomes show no systematic trend. However, economic conditions do matter, and the employment rate of some earlier cohorts collapsed when structural shocks hit the German labor market in the 1990s. Finally, we study the likely integration path of recent arrivals during the European refugee 'crisis' and the Russo-Ukrainian war.
    Keywords: Immigration, labor market integration, long-run trends
    JEL: J11 J61 J68
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Kazuya Masuda; Hitoshi Shigeoka
    Abstract: We examine the mortality effects of a 1947 school reform in Japan, which extended compulsory schooling from primary to secondary school by as much as 3 years. The abolition of secondary school fees also indicates that those affected by the reform likely came from disadvantaged families who could have benefited the most from schooling. Even in this relatively favorable setting, we fail to find that the reform improved later-life mortality up to the age of 87 years, although it significantly increased years of schooling. This finding suggests limited health returns to schooling at the lower level of educational attainment.
    JEL: H52 I12 I21 I28
    Date: 2023–07
  7. By: E. Jason Baron; Joseph J. Doyle Jr.; Natalia Emanuel; Peter Hull; Joseph P. Ryan
    Abstract: Ten percent of Black children in the U.S. spend time in foster care—twice the rate of white children. We estimate unwarranted disparities in foster care placement decisions, adjusting for differences in the potential for future maltreatment by leveraging the quasi-random assignment of cases to investigators. Using a sample of nearly 220, 000 maltreatment investigations, we find that Black children are 1.7 percentage points (50%) more likely to be placed into foster care following an investigation than white children conditional on subsequent maltreatment potential. This disparity is entirely driven by white investigators and by cases where maltreatment potential is present, in which Black children are twice as likely to be placed as white children (12% vs. 6%). These results suggest white children may be harmed by “under-placement” in high-risk situations via the leniency that white investigators afford to white parents. Leveraging the additional quasi-random assignment of hotline call screeners, we find that both screeners and investigators are responsible for unwarranted disparities in placement, with investigators amplifying the disparity for cases with subsequent maltreatment potential and mitigating it for lower-risk cases. This finding highlights the importance of “systems-based” analyses of inequity in high-stakes decisions, where discrimination can compound across multiple decision-makers.
    JEL: C26 I31 J13 J15
    Date: 2023–07
  8. By: Santiago Garganta (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); María Florencia Pinto (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Joaquín Zentner (Inter-American Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the potential impact of extended school days in reducing teenage fertility. We study the Jornada Escolar Extendida program, which doubled the school-day length from 4 to 8 hours in the Dominican Republic, and exploit the geographic and time variation induced by its gradual implementation. We find evidence that a higher exposure to JEE in the municipality, measured as the percentage of secondary students covered by the program, reduces the incidence of teenage pregnancies, and that the effect is stronger after the program has reached at least half of secondary students in the municipality. The estimates are robust to various specifications and alternative checks. These results suggest that extended school-day policies can have spillover effects regarding teenagers’ fertility choices.
    JEL: O1 I31 I24
    Date: 2023–08
  9. By: Jonathan Colmer; Jennifer L. Doleac
    Abstract: Gun violence is a major problem in the United States, and extensive prior work has shown that higher temperatures increase violent behavior. In this paper, we consider whether restricting the concealed carry of firearms mitigates or exacerbates the effect of temperature on violence. We use two identification strategies that exploit daily variation in temperature and variation in gun control policies between and within states. Our findings suggest that more prohibitive concealed carry laws attenuate the temperature-homicide relationship. Additional results suggest that restrictions primarily decrease the lethality of temperature-driven violent crimes, rather than their overall occurrence, but may be less effective at reducing access to guns in more urban areas.
    Keywords: right-to-carry, temperature, crime, homicide
    JEL: K42 Q51 I18
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Macchi, Elisa (Brown University); Sievert, Clara (Harvard University); Bolotnyy, Valentin (Stanford University); Barreira, Paul (Harvard University)
    Abstract: We study the mental health of graduate students and faculty at 14 Economics departments in Europe. Using clinically validated surveys sent out in the fall of 2021, we find that 34.7% of graduate students experience moderate to severe symptoms of depression or anxiety and 17.3% report suicidal or self-harm ideation in a two-week period. Only 19.2% of students with significant symptoms are in treatment. 15.8% of faculty members experience moderate to severe depression or anxiety symptoms, with prevalence higher among non-tenure track (42.9%) and tenure track (31.4%) faculty than tenured (9.6%) faculty. We estimate that the COVID-19 pandemic accounts for about 74% of the higher prevalence of depression symptoms and 30% of the higher prevalence of anxiety symptoms in our European sample relative to a 2017 U.S. sample of economics graduate students. We also document issues in the work environment, including a high incidence of sexual harassment, and make recommendations for improvement.
    Keywords: student mental health, faculty mental health, wellbeing
    JEL: A23 I12 I18 I23
    Date: 2023–07

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