nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒05‒15
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. A validation workflow for mortality forecasting By Ricarda Duerst; Jonas Schöley; Christina Bohk-Ewald
  2. Educational inequalities in longevity among OECD countries around 2016 By Fabrice Murtin; Christopher Lübker
  3. Child Penalties in Canada By Marie Connolly; Marie Melanie; Catherine Haeck
  4. The Effect of Removing Early Retirement on Mortality By Cristina Bellés-Obrero; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Han Ye
  5. Price and Prejudice: Housing Rents Reveal Racial Animus By Marius Brülhart; Gian-Paolo Klinke; Andrea Marcucci; Dominic Rohner; Mathias Thoenig

  1. By: Ricarda Duerst (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jonas Schöley (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Christina Bohk-Ewald (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Accurate mortality forecasts are essential for decision makers to plan for changing needs of pension and other social security systems. Researchers have developed a variety of methods with increasing methodological complexity to forecast mortality developments. We introduce a method validation workflow designed for mortality forecasts. The aim of our workflow is to assess the suitability of forecast method depending on the prevailing mortality regime in the country of interest. For our analysis, we apply our workflow to short-term Lee-Carter forecasts for 24 countries to showcase different mortality regimes. We assess Lee-Carter's forecast performance on the life expectancy and lifespan disparity at birth. We show that the mortality regime in the country of interest plays a crucial role for the performance of a forecast method. Thus, our method validation workflow helps researchers to choose an appropriate mortality forecast method.
    Keywords: forecasts, mortality
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Fabrice Murtin; Christopher Lübker
    Abstract: This study examines inequalities in life expectancy by educational status, age-standardised mortality rates, and age-at-death, using high-quality linked and supplementary unlinked data from 25 OECD countries in 2013-19. Absolute gaps in life expectancy at age 25 between high and low education groups are on average equal to 5.2 years and 8.2 years for women and men, respectively. Deaths of despair among women and men aged 25-64 contribute on average 7% and 11% to the total gap in life expectancy between high and low education groups, respectively. Comparing identical country-sources to the previous analysis, absolute gaps in life expectancy at age 25 have increased by 0.5 year and 0.4 year on average for women and men between 2011 and 2016.
    Keywords: death of despair, health inequality, life expectancy, longevity, socio-economic gradient
    JEL: I18 I14
    Date: 2022–08–05
  3. By: Marie Connolly (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Marie Melanie (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal)
    Abstract: Having children has a sizeable impact on women’s labour outcomes, but not on men’s. The differential effects of children by gender are referred to as child penalties, and are now documented in many countries. In this paper, we exploit the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults to estimate Canadian child penalties in both earnings and employment for a period going from five years before the birth of the first child to 10 years after. Using an event study methodology (Kleven et al., 2019a), we find large and persistent negative effects of parenthood for mothers, but not fathers. Mothers’ earnings decrease by 49% the year of birth, with a penalty still at 34.3% 10 years after; the corresponding penalty in employment down 14.2%. We also document larger negative impacts of parenthood for women who had multiple children or those with a lower education level. We finally provide suggestive evidence that family policies such as parental leave and subsidized childcare may help reduce child penalties.
    Keywords: child penalties, family gap, Canada, family policies, subsidized childcare
    JEL: J13 J31 J38
    Date: 2023–03
  4. By: Cristina Bellés-Obrero; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Han Ye
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the mortality effect of delaying retirement by investigating the impacts of the 1967 Spanish pension reform. This reform exogenously changed the early retirement age, depending on the date individuals started contributing to the Social Security system. Those contributing before 1 January 1967 maintained the right to voluntarily retire early (at age 60), while individuals who started contributing after that date could not voluntarily claim a pension until the age of 65. Using the Spanish administrative Social Security data, we find that the reform delayed the individuals’ labour market exit by around half a year and increased the probability that individuals take up disability pensions, partial pensions, and no pensions. We show evidence that delaying exiting employment increases the hazard of dying between the ages of 60 and 69, for almost all individuals. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the increase in mortality is stronger for those employed in low-skilled, physically and psychosocially demanding jobs. Moreover, we show that allowing for flexible retirement schemes, such as partial retirement, mitigates the detrimental effect of delaying retirement on mortality.
    Keywords: Delaying retirement, Mortality, Heterogeneity, Flexible retirement
    JEL: I10 I12 J14 J26
    Date: 2023–04
  5. By: Marius Brülhart; Gian-Paolo Klinke; Andrea Marcucci; Dominic Rohner; Mathias Thoenig
    Abstract: We study market rents in the neighborhood of asylum seeker hosting centers. Our empirical setting exploits the quasi-random opening of centers and spatial allocation of asylum seekers in Switzerland. Rents within 0.7km of an active center are found on average to be 3.8% lower than rents in the control group. The price drop is more pronounced when centers host a higher share of asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan countries. In contrast, neither the religious affiliation of asylum seekers nor their inferred crime propensity affect prices significantly. Our findings are consistent with racial animus as the dominant driver of observed market outcomes.
    Keywords: ethnic prejudice, willingness to pay, housing prices, refugee centers
    JEL: D90 J15 R31
    Date: 2023

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