nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒05‒08
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Trends in the Female Longevity Advantage of 19th-Century Birth Cohorts: Exploring the Role of Place and Fertility By Fletcher, Jason M.; Topping, Michael; Joo, Won-tak
  2. Labour market dualization, permanent insecurity and fertility: the case of ultra-low fertility in South Korea By Fleckenstein, Timo; Lee, Soohyun Christine; Mohun Himmelweit, Sam
  3. Early Child Care and Labor Supply of Lower-SES Mothers: A Randomized Controlled Trial By Henning Hermes; Marina Krauss; Philipp Lergetporer; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold
  4. Discrimination on the Child Care Market: A Nationwide Field Experiment By Henning Hermes; Philipp Lergetporer; Fabian Mierisch; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold
  5. Occupations Shape Retirement across Countries By Philip Sauré; Arthur Seibold; Elizaveta Smorodenkova; Hosny Zoabi
  6. Optimal self-protection and health risk perception: bridging the gap between risk theory and the Health Belief Model By Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron; Marc Leandri
  7. Distributionally Sensitive Measurement and Valuation of Population Health By Shaun Da Costa; Owen O'Donnell; Raf Van Gestel

  1. By: Fletcher, Jason M. (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Topping, Michael (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Joo, Won-tak (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: This paper uses massive online genealogy data from the United States over the 19th century to estimate period and cohort-based sex differences in longevity. Following previous work, we find a longevity reversal in the mid-19th century that expanded rapidly for at least a half century. For measures of conditional survival past childbearing age, females enjoyed a longevity advantage for the whole century. Unlike most mortality databases of this period, genealogical data allows analysis of spatial patterns and of the impacts of fertility on longevity. Our results suggest very limited evidence of spatial (state) variation in these patterns. We do, however, find evidence that the associations between fertility and longevity partially explain the trends.
    Keywords: longevity, sex differences, US, genealogy
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2023–03
  2. By: Fleckenstein, Timo; Lee, Soohyun Christine; Mohun Himmelweit, Sam
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between labour market dualization, insecurity and low fertility, through a case study of South Korea, an extreme case of ultra-low fertility where the total fertility rate fell to 0.84 in 2020. It is argued that the long-term nature of the insecurity associated with dualization, as well as its impact on people’s perceptions of present and future insecurity, mark dualization out as a particular phenomenon whose impact on fertility current demographic approaches struggle to fully understand. Rather than restricting the focus to the education-employment transition, we show how permanent insecurity in highly dualized labour markets depresses fertility.
    Keywords: fertility; labour markets; family; inequality; gender inequality; social policy; T&F deal
    JEL: J13 J16
    Date: 2023–03–09
  3. By: Henning Hermes (University of Düsseldorf, Institute for Competition Economics); Marina Krauss (University of Augsburg, Department of Economics); Philipp Lergetporer (Technical University of Munich, School of Management); Frauke Peter (Deutsches Zentrum für Hochschul- und Wissenschaftsforschung); Simon Wiederhold (University of Ingolstadt, D-85049 Ingolstadt)
    Abstract: We present experimental evidence that enabling access to universal early child care for families with lower socioeconomic status (SES) increases maternal labor supply. Our intervention provides families with customized help for child care applications, resulting in a large increase in enrollment among lower-SES families. The treatment increases lower-SES mothers' full-time employment rates by 9 percentage points (+160%), household income by 10%, and mothers' earnings by 22%. The effect on full-time employment is largely driven by increased care hours provided by child care centers and fathers. Overall, the treatment substantially improves intra-household gender equality in terms of child care duties and earnings.
    Keywords: Child care, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial
    JEL: D90 J13 J18 J22 C93
    Date: 2023–04
  4. By: Henning Hermes; Philipp Lergetporer; Fabian Mierisch; Frauke Peter; Simon Wiederhold
    Abstract: emails from fictitious parents to > 18, 000 early child care centers across Germany, asking if there is a slot available and how to apply. Randomly varying names to signal migration background, we find that migrants receive 4.4 percentage points fewer responses. Responses to migrants also contain substantially fewer slot offers, are shorter, and less encouraging. Exploring channels, discrimination against migrants does not differ by the perceived educational background of the email sender. However, it does differ by regional characteristics, being stronger in areas with lower shares of migrants in child care, higher right-wing vote shares, and lower financial resources. Discrimination on the child care market likely perpetuates existing inequalities of opportunities for disadvantaged children.
    Keywords: child care, discrimination, information provision, inequality, field experiment
    JEL: J13 J18 J22 C93
    Date: 2023–04
  5. By: Philip Sauré; Arthur Seibold; Elizaveta Smorodenkova; Hosny Zoabi
    Abstract: We study how occupations shape individual and aggregate retirement behavior. First, we document large differences in individual retirement ages across occupations in U.S. data. We then show that retirement behavior among European workers is strongly correlated with U.S. occupational retirement ages, indicating an inherent association between occupations and retirement that is present across institutional settings. Finally, we find that occupational composition is highly predictive of aggregate retirement behavior across 45 countries. Our findings suggest that events affecting occupational structure, such as skill-biased technological change or international trade, have consequences for aggregate retirement behavior and social security systems.
    Keywords: retirement, occupational distribution, cross-country analysis
    JEL: E24 H55 J14 J24 J26 J82
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron; Marc Leandri
    Abstract: In this contribution to the longstanding risk theory debate on optimal self-protection, we aim to bridge the gap between the microeconomic modeling of self-protection, in the wake of Ehrlich and Becker (1972), and the Health Belief Model, a conceptual framework extremely influential in Public Health studies (Janz and Becker, 1984). In doing so, we highlight the crucial role of risk perception in the individual decision to adopt a preventive behavior towards a generic health risk. We discuss the optimal prevention effort engaged by an agent displaying either imperfect knowledge of the susceptibility (probability of occurrence) or the severity (magnitude of the loss) of a health hazard, or facing uncertainty on these risk components. We assess the impact of risk aversion and prudence on the optimal level of self-protection, an issue at the core of the risk and insurance economic literature. Our results also pave the way for the design of efficient information instruments to improve health prevention when risk perceptions are biased.
    Keywords: Prevention, Self-protection, Health Belief Model, Risk perception, Risk aversion, Prudence
    JEL: D81 I12 D9
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Shaun Da Costa (Paris School of Economics); Owen O'Donnell (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Raf Van Gestel (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We introduce a measure of population health that is sensitive to dispersion in both age-specific health and lifespan. The measure generalises health-adjusted life expectancy without requiring more data. A transformation of change in the measure gives a distributionally sensitive monetary valuation of change in population health and disease burden. Application to Sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and 2019 reveals that the change in population health is sensitive to allowing for lifespan dispersion but is less sensitive to age-specific health dispersion. Distributional sensitivity changes relative burdens of diseases, reduces convergence between the burdens of communicable and non-communicable diseases, and so could influence disease prioritisation. It increases the value of health improvements relative to GDP.
    Keywords: Health, Lifespan, Life Expectancy, Inequality, Global Burden of Disease, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: I14 I15 J11 J17 O15
    Date: 2023–03–24

This nep-dem issue is ©2023 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.