nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒04‒24
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. The effects of social pensions on mortality among the extreme poor elderly By Jose Valderrama; Javier Olivera
  2. It never rains but it pours: Austerity and mortality rate in peripheral areas By Guccio, C.; Pignatora, G.; Vidoli, F.
  3. Gendered parenthood-employment gaps in midlife: a demographic perspective across three different welfare systems By Lorenti, Angelo; Jessica, Nisen; Mencarini, Letizia; Myrskylä, Mikko
  4. Maternal Mortality and Women's Political Voice: Historical Evidence from the U.S. By Sonia Bhalotra; Damian Clarke; Joseph F. Gomes; Atheendar Venkataramani
  5. Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration By Sofía Fernández Guerrico
  6. Working Longer, Working Stronger? The Forward-Looking Effects of Increasing the Retirement Age on (Un)employment Behaviour By Niklas Gohl

  1. By: Jose Valderrama; Javier Olivera
    Abstract: We study the effects of Peru’s social pension programme Pension 65 on mortality. The programme provides a lifetime pension equivalent to 32 US dollars per month to individuals aged 65 and older who do not have other pensions and are officially classified as extreme poor. The analysis relies on survey data obtained at the baseline, which we match to mortality records for the period 2012 to 2019. We exploit the discontinuity around the welfare index used by the programme to determine eligibility, and estimate intention-to-treat effects in a regression discontinuity setting. We find that after seven years, the programme can reduce mortality among eligible people by about 11.4 percentage points. The programme could also increase the life expectancy of eligible people by one year. The results and back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that the policy is cost effective.
    Keywords: non-contributory pensions; mortality; regression discontinuity; old-age poverty
    JEL: H55 I38 J14
    Date: 2023–04
  2. By: Guccio, C.; Pignatora, G.; Vidoli, F.
    Abstract: Austerity policies have been widely adopted in advanced countries to reduce public deficits. However, they can have unintended consequences, including negative impacts on population health. In this paper, taking advantage of temporal and geographical discontinuity of regional healthcare recovery plans (RPs) adopted in Italy since 2007 and employing a matching estimator in a discrete spatial non-stationarity framework, the impact of RPs on mortality rates at the municipal level has been tested for the period 2003 to 2018. We find that austerity has had unintentional negative effects on the mortality rate, particularly in peripheral areas and for the most vulnerable population.
    Keywords: austerity; health outcomes; mortality rate; spatial non-stationarity; difference-in-difference;
    JEL: C23 E32 I10 I18
    Date: 2023–03
  3. By: Lorenti, Angelo; Jessica, Nisen; Mencarini, Letizia; Myrskylä, Mikko
    Abstract: Women’s labor force participation has increased remarkably in western countries, but important gender gaps still remain, especially among parents. This paper uses a novel comparative perspective assessing women’s and men’s mid-life employment trajectories by parity and education. We provide new insight into the gendered parenthood penalty by analyzing the long-term implications, beyond the core childbearing ages by decomposing years lived between ages 40 to 74 into years in employment, inactivity, and retirement. We compare three countries with very different institutional settings and cultural norms: Finland, Italy, and the U.S. Our empirical approach uses the multistate incidence-based life table method. Our results document large cross-national variation, and the key role that education plays. In Finland years employed increase with parity for women and men and the gender gap is small; in the U.S. the relation between parity and years is relatively flat, whereas among those with two or more children a gender gap emerges; and in Italy, years employed decreases sharply with parity for women, and increases for men. Education elevates years employed similarly for all groups in Finland; but in the U.S and Italy, highly educated mothers experience only half of the gender gap compared to low-educated mothers. The employment trajectories of childless women and men differ greatly across countries.
    Date: 2023–03–12
  4. By: Sonia Bhalotra (University of Warwick); Damian Clarke (Universidad de Chile); Joseph F. Gomes (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Atheendar Venkataramani (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We show that large declines in maternal mortality can be achieved by raising women's political voice. Using an event study approach, we show that the arrival of first antibiotics (sulfa drugs) in the U.S. in 1937, which were effective in treating peripartum bacterial infections, led to larger reductions in maternal mortality in states that extended suffrage to women prior to the 19th Constitutional Amendment of 1920, a national mandate that extended the franchise to all women. These findings suggest important complementarities between women's voice in politics and health-improving technologies. In terms of mechanisms, we argue that earlier suffrage and the longer history of women's political participation arising from it may have laid the groundwork for greater acceptability and quicker uptake of technologies that improved women's health. We also show that earlier suffrage led to a higher likelihood of women holding Senate seats, consistent with a channel where suffrage shaped policymaking through women leaders.
    Keywords: Maternal mortality, women's political representation, gender, suffrage, Sulfa
    JEL: I14 I15 O15
    Date: 2023–03–20
  5. By: Sofía Fernández Guerrico
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of trade-induced changes in Mexican labor demand on population growth and migration responses at the local level. It exploits cross-municipality variation in exposure to a change in trade policy between the United States and China that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports, negatively affecting Mexican manufacturing exports to the United States. Municipalities more exposed to the policy change, via their industry structure, experienced greater employment loss. In the five years following the change in trade policy, more exposed municipalities experience increased population growth, driven by declines in out-migration. Conversely, 6 to 10 years after the change in trade policy, exposure to increased trade competition is associated with decreased population growth, driven by declines in in-migration and return migration rates, and increased out-migration. The sluggish regional adjustment is consistent with high moving costs and transitions across sectors in the short term.
    Keywords: Trade competition; Job displacement; Population growth
    JEL: F16 J23 O12 R12 R23
    Date: 2023–02–27
  6. By: Niklas Gohl
    Abstract: Leveraging two cohort-specific pension reforms, this paper estimates the forward-looking effects of an exogenous increase in the working horizon on (un)employment behaviour for individuals with a long remaining statutory working life. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches based on administrative and survey data, I show that a longer legal working horizon increases individuals’ subjective expectations about the length of their work life, raises the probability of employment, decreases the probability of unemployment, and increases the intensity of job search among the unemployed. Heterogeneity analyses show that the demonstrated employment effects are strongest for women and in occupations with comparatively low physical intensity, i.e., occupations that can be performed at older ages.
    Keywords: retirement policies, employment, DiD
    JEL: J24 J26 H21
    Date: 2023–03–28

This nep-dem issue is ©2023 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.