nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒04‒10
nine papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Intergenerational Correlations in Longevity By Sandra E. Black; Neil Duzett; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Nolan G. Pope; Joseph Price
  2. Non-survival to pension age in Denmark and Sweden: a sub-national investigation By Kashnitsky, Ilya
  3. Longevity, Health and Housing Risks Management in Retirement By Pierre-Carl Michaud; Pascal St-Amour
  4. Do Older Adults Accurately Forecast Their Social Security Benefits? By Grant M. Seiter; Sita Slavov
  5. Women in the workplace: 50 years of change By Stefania Albanesi; Claudia Olivetti; Barbara Petrongolo
  6. Precautionary Fertility: Conceptions, Births, and Abortions around Employment Shocks By Bárdits, Anna; Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna; Bisztray, Márta; Weber, Andrea; Szabó-Morvai, Agnes
  7. Counting missing women: A reconciliation of the "flow measure" and the "stock measure" By Ebert, Cara; Klasen, Stephan; Vollmer, Sebastian
  8. Demographics, labor market power and the spatial equilibrium By Furbach, Nina
  9. Is economics self-correcting? Replications in the American Economic Review By Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Fiala, Nathan; Neubauer, Florian

  1. By: Sandra E. Black; Neil Duzett; Adriana Lleras-Muney; Nolan G. Pope; Joseph Price
    Abstract: While there is substantial research on the intergenerational persistence of economic outcomes such as income and wealth, much less is known about intergenerational persistence in health. We examine the correlation in longevity (an overall measure of health) across generations using a unique dataset containing information about more than 26 million families obtained from the Family Search Family Tree. We find that the intergenerational correlation in longevity is 0.09 and rises to 0.14 if we consider the correlation between children and the average of their parents' longevity. This intergenerational persistence in longevity is much smaller than that of persistence in socio-economic status and lower than existing correlations in health. Moreover, this correlation remained low throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries despite dramatic changes in longevity and its determinants. We also document that the correlations in longevity and in education are largely independent of each other. These patterns are likely explained by the fact that stochastic factors play a large role in the determination of longevity, larger than for other outcomes.
    JEL: I1 I30 J6
    Date: 2023–03
  2. By: Kashnitsky, Ilya (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: Mortality keeps improving even in the most developed countries. Deaths before senior age become more and more occasional and thus are increasingly considered unnecessary and perhaps even avoidable. Denmark belongs to the most developed countries of the world in terms of progress in lowering human mortality levels. Yet there is still much room for large improvements – compared to Sweden, Danish population has almost the same survival profile up to age 50 but then there are striking differences in later ages. Between ages 50 and 65 about 10% of Danish males die while in Sweden this proportion is only about 7%. This paper explores the regularities of non-survival to pension age across Danish municipalities and compares them to ones in Sweden. The main focus of this exploration is identification of the spatial patterns based on the mortality characteristics of the population that are studied using the advanced spatial clustering algorithm that utilizes tree edge removal technique. The methodological challenge resolved along the way is the construction of reliable life table estimates for the small municipal populations. The results suggest that the main reason for the observed gap between Danish and Swedish municipalities, especially for males, is the lagging behind development of the most deprived areas, which corresponds with the results on widening gaps along socioeconomic dimensions.
    Date: 2023–02–21
  3. By: Pierre-Carl Michaud; Pascal St-Amour
    Abstract: Annuities, long-term care insurance and reverse mortgages remain unpopular to manage longevity, medical and housing price risks after retirement. We analyze low demand using a life-cycle model structurally estimated with a unique stated-preference survey experiment of Canadian households. Low risk aversion, substitution between housing and consumption and low marginal utility when in poor health explain most of the reduced demand. Bequests motives are found to be a luxury good and play a limited role. The remaining disinterest is explained by information frictions and behavioural status-quo biases. We find evidence of strong spousal co-insurance motives motivating LTCI and of responsiveness to bundling with a near doubling of demand for annuities when reverse mortgages can be used to annuitize, instead of consuming home equity.
    Keywords: retirement wealth; insurance; health risk; housing risk
    JEL: J14 G52 G53
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Grant M. Seiter; Sita Slavov
    Abstract: How accurate are older people’s expectations about their future Social Security benefits? Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we compare respondents’ observed Social Security claiming ages and benefits with subjective expectations provided during their 50s and early 60s. We find that, while older adults generally have accurate expectations about their claiming age, they underestimate their annual Social Security income by approximately $1, 896 (11.5 percent) on average. However, both accuracy and precision increase with age, and the forecast error for people in their early 60s is not statistically different from zero. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the mailing of Social Security statements, which contain personalized information about future benefits, we show that information provision reduces the forecast error in annual income by $344 (2.1 percent of the average benefit).
    JEL: E21 H55 J14 J26
    Date: 2023–03
  5. By: Stefania Albanesi; Claudia Olivetti; Barbara Petrongolo
    Abstract: Decades of progress have seen greater opportunities for women in the workplace, but sizeable gender gaps remain in most indicators of economic achievement. Stefania Albanesi, Claudia Olivetti and Barbara Petrongolo review the effect of family policies on women's careers and set out the challenges to come.
    Keywords: gender, gender gap, policy, gender gaps, spousal specialisation, family policies
    Date: 2023–02–21
  6. By: Bárdits, Anna (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics); Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics); Bisztray, Márta (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics); Weber, Andrea (Central European University); Szabó-Morvai, Agnes (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics)
    Abstract: We study fertility responses to employment shocks. Using unique Hungarian administrative data that allow linking firm-level mass layoff and closure events to individual-level records on births and abortions, we show that the main response happens in anticipation of the shock. Responses differ by the availability of dismissal protection. While pregnancies increase in anticipation of all events, births only rise in case of mass layoffs when pregnant women are protected from layoffs. If the firm closes protection is lost and we find an increase in abortions. We interpret these results as evidence for precautionary fertility behavior. Women threatened by job displacement bring births forward to exploit dismissal protection, a strategy that breaks down if the firm closes permanently.
    Keywords: abortion, birth, pregnancy, mass layoff, firm closure
    JEL: I12 J13 J65
    Date: 2023–03
  7. By: Ebert, Cara; Klasen, Stephan; Vollmer, Sebastian
    Abstract: Stock estimates' of missing women suggest that the problem is concentrated in South and East Asia and among young children. In contrast, `flow estimates' suggest that gender bias in mortality is much larger, is as severe among adults as it is among children in India and China, and is larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in India and China. We show that the different stock and flow measure results rely on the choice of the reference standard for mortality and an incomplete correction for different disease environments in the flow measure. Alternative reference standards reconcile the results of the two measures.
    Keywords: Missing women, gender bias, mortality, disease, age, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, India
    JEL: J16 D63 I14 I15 O15
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Furbach, Nina
    Abstract: This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce. Using highly disaggregated administrative data from Germany, I find that firms have more labor market power over older workers: The labor supply elasticity decreases from more than 2 to 1 from age 20 to 64. Calibrating the model with the reduced-form elasticity estimates, I find that differences in labor supply elasticities across age groups can explain 4% of the urban wage premium and 2% of the spatial concentration of population. Demographics and skill together account for 10% of the urban wage premium and 2% of agglomeration.
    Keywords: Monopsonistic competition, urban wage premium, demographics, Germany, spatial equilibrium
    JEL: J11 J31 J42 R23
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Fiala, Nathan; Neubauer, Florian
    Abstract: Replication and constructive controversy are essential for scientific progress. This paper reviews the impact of all replications published as comments in the American Economic Review between 2010 and 2020. We investigate the citation rates of comments and whether a comment affects its original paper's citation rates. We find that most comments are barely cited, and they have no impact on the original papers' subsequent citations. This finding holds for original papers for which the comment diagnoses a substantive problem. We conclude from these citation patterns that replications do not update the economics literature. In an online opinion survey, we elicited viewpoints of both comment authors and original authors and find that in most cases, there is no consensus regarding the replication's success and to what extent the original paper's contribution sustains. This resonates with the conventional wisdom that robustness and replicability are hard to define in economics.
    Keywords: Replication, citations, meta-science
    JEL: A11 A14
    Date: 2023

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