nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒04‒03
eight papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Motherhood, Pregnancy or Marriage effects? By María Edo; Inés Berniell; Lucila Berniell; Dolores De la Mata; Mariana Marchionni; Matilde Machado; Yarine Fawaz
  2. Gendered parenthood-employment gaps in midlife: a demographic perspective across three different welfare systems By Angelo Lorenti; Jessica Nisén; Letizia Mencarini; Mikko Myrskylä
  3. Is ‘employment during motherhood’ a ‘value changing experience’? By Borrell Porta, Mireia; Contreras Silva, Valentina; Costa-Font, Joan
  4. Future fertility scenarios in Finland: a computational forecasting approach By Daniel Ciganda; Julia Hellstrand; Mikko Myrskylä
  5. A global assessment of the impact of violence on lifetime uncertainty By Aburto, José Manuel; di Lego, Vanessa; Riffe, Tim; Kashyap, Ridhi; van Raalte, Alyson; Torrisi, Orsola
  6. Conditioning public pensions on health: effects on capital accumulation and welfare By Giorgio Fabbri; Marie-Louise Leroux; Paolo Melindi-Ghidi; Willem Sas
  7. Should we adjust health expenditure for age structure on health systems efficiency? A worldwide analysis By Santos, João Vasco; Martins, Filipa Santos; Pestana, Joana; Souza, Júlio; Freitas, Alberto; Cylus, Jonathan
  8. Measuring Preferences Over Intertemporal Profiles By Chen Sun

  1. By: María Edo; Inés Berniell; Lucila Berniell; Dolores De la Mata; Mariana Marchionni; Matilde Machado; Yarine Fawaz
    Keywords: Pregnancy, Non-live births, Marriage, Child penalty, Motherhood, SHARE data
    JEL: J13 J16
    Date: 2021–11
  2. By: Angelo Lorenti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jessica Nisén (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Letizia Mencarini; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Women’s labor force participation has increased remarkably in western countries, but important gender gaps still remain, especially among parents. This paper uses a novel comparative perspective assessing women’s and men’s mid-life employment trajectories by parity and education. We provide new insight into the gendered parenthood penalty by analyzing the long-term implications, beyond the core childbearing ages by decomposing years lived between ages 40 to 74 into years in employment, inactivity, and retirement. We compare three countries with very different institutional settings and cultural norms: Finland, Italy, and the U.S. Our empirical approach uses the multistate incidence-based life table method. Our results document large cross-national variation, and the key role that education plays. In Finland years employed increase with parity for women and men and the gender gap is small; in the U.S. the relation between parity and years is relatively flat, whereas among those with two or more children a gender gap emerges; and in Italy, years employed decreases sharply with parity for women, and increases for men. Education elevates years employed similarly for all groups in Finland; but in the U.S and Italy, highly educated mothers experience only half of the gender gap compared to low-educated mothers. The employment trajectories of childless women and men differ greatly across countries.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Borrell Porta, Mireia; Contreras Silva, Valentina; Costa-Font, Joan
    Abstract: We study whether the experience of ‘employment during motherhood’ (EDM) exerts an effect on attitudes towards the welfare effects of EDM, which proxy gender norms with regards to employment. We examine unique evidence from a large, representative, and longitudinal data set that collects attitudinal data over about a decade in the United Kingdom. We draw on an instrumental variable (IV) strategy that exploits variation in local labour markets using a Bartik instrument for employment to address the potential endogeneity of EDM experience in explaining attitudes. We find that both childless women who work and mothers who do not work are more likely to agree with the statement that ’pre-school children suffer if their mothers work’, which we interpret as more traditional gender values. However, this is not the case for women who work and have children. These findings suggest that motherhood confirms individuals’ priors, and suggest that EDM is a value preserving rather than a value changing experience. These results suggest that the so-called ‘motherhood penalty’ in employment trajectories cannot be fully explained by a change in attitudes after giving birth.
    Keywords: Elsevier deal
    JEL: J22
    Date: 2023–06–01
  4. By: Daniel Ciganda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Julia Hellstrand (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Aburto, José Manuel; di Lego, Vanessa; Riffe, Tim; Kashyap, Ridhi; van Raalte, Alyson; Torrisi, Orsola
    Abstract: Uncertainty around age at death, or lifetime uncertainty, is a key public health indicator and a marker of inequality in survival. How does the extent of violence affect lifetime uncertainty? We address this question by quantifying the impact of violence on dispersion in the ages at death, the metric most used to measure lifetime uncertainty. Using mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease Study and the Internal Peace Index between 2008 and 2017, we find that the most violent countries are also those with the highest lifetime uncertainty. In the Middle East, conflict-related deaths are the largest contributor to lifetime uncertainty. In Latin America, a similar pattern is attributable to homicides. The effects are larger in magnitude for men, but the consequences remain considerable for women. Our study points to a double burden of violence on longevity: Not only does violence shorten individual lives, but it also makes the length of life less predictable.
    Keywords: agency; anticipation; Latin America; materiality; sovereignty; technopolitics; Frank I Müller holds a Global Fellowship from ERC’s Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Program (Grant No. 898538 – Social Housing).
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2023–02–03
  6. By: Giorgio Fabbri; Marie-Louise Leroux; Paolo Melindi-Ghidi; Willem Sas
    Abstract: This paper develops an overlapping generations model which links a public health system to a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system. It relies on two assumptions. First, the health system directly finances curative health spending on the elderly. Second, public pensions partially depend on health status during old age, by introducing a component which is indexed to society’s average level of disability. This way, reducing disability during old age lowers the pension benefit as the need to finance long-term care services also drops. We then study the effects of introducing such a ‘comprehensive’ social security system on individual decisions, capital accumulation, and welfare. We first show that under certain conditions, health investments can boost savings and capital accumulation in the long run. Second, we show that if individuals are sufficiently concerned with their health when old, it is optimal to introduce a health-dependant pension system, as this will raise social welfare compared to a system where pensions are not tied to the society’s average level of old-age disability. Our analysis thus highlights an important policy recommendation: making PAYG pension schemes partially health-dependent can be beneficial to society.
    Keywords: Curative Health Investments, PAYG Pension System, Disability, Overlapping Generations, Long-term Care
    JEL: H55 I15 O41
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Santos, João Vasco; Martins, Filipa Santos; Pestana, Joana; Souza, Júlio; Freitas, Alberto; Cylus, Jonathan
    Abstract: Introduction: Healthcare expenditure, a common input used in health systems efficiency analyses is affected by population age structure. However, while age structure is usually considered to adjust health system outputs, health expenditure and other inputs are seldom adjusted. We propose methods for adjusting Health Expenditure per Capita (HEpC) for population age structure on health system efficiency analyses and assess the goodness-of-fit, correlation, reliability and disagreement of different approaches. Methods: We performed a worldwide (188 countries) cross-sectional study of efficiency in 2015, using a stochastic frontier analysis. As single outputs, healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth and at 65 years-old were considered in different models. We developed five models using as inputs: (1) HEpC (unadjusted); (2) age-adjusted HEpC; (3) HEpC and the proportion of 0–14, 15–64 and 65 + years-old; (4) HEpC and 5-year age-groups; and (5) HEpC ageing index. Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, Spearman’s rank correlation, intraclass correlation coefficient and information-based measure of disagreement were computed. Results: Models 1 and 2 showed the highest correlation (0.981 and 0.986 for HALE at birth and HALE at 65 years-old, respectively) and reliability (0.986 and 0.988) and the lowest disagreement (0.011 and 0.014). Model 2, with age-adjusted HEpC, presented the lowest information criteria values. Conclusions: Despite different models showing good correlation and reliability and low disagreement, there was important variability when age structure is considered that cannot be disregarded. The age-adjusted HE model provided the best goodness-of-fit and was the closest option to the current standard.
    Keywords: age adjustment; efficiency; frontier models; health system; uropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No.721402
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–02–13
  8. By: Chen Sun (HU Berlin)
    Abstract: Growing evidence indicates that utility over time is different from utility under risk. Hence, measuring intertemporal preferences (discounting and utility) exclusively from intertemporal choices is desirable. We develop a simple method for measuring intertemporal preferences. It is parameter-free in both discounting and utility, and allows a wider range of models to be measured than preceding methods. It is easy to implement, clear to subjects, incentive compatible, and does not require more measurements than existing methods if identical assumptions are imposed. In an experiment, we illustrate how the method can be used to test recent models with unconventional assumptions non-parametrically.
    Keywords: measuring time preferences; intertemporal profile; parameter-free;
    JEL: C91 D12 D91
    Date: 2023–02–13

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