nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒01‒23
four papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. The Subjective Cost of Young Children: A European Comparison By Angela Greulich; Sonja Spitzer; Bernhard Hammer
  2. Measuring the Child Penalty Early in a Career By Stephen Bazen; Xavier Joutard; Hélène Périvier
  3. The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Marriage and Fertility: Evidence from Indian Census By Sengupta, Shruti; Azam, Mehtabul
  4. Population ageing and the public finance burden of dementia: A simulation analysis By Maria Noel Pi Alperin; Magali Perquin; Giordana Gastón

  1. By: Angela Greulich (OSC - Observatoire sociologique du changement (Sciences Po, CNRS) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Sonja Spitzer (University of Vienna [Vienna], Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital - Vienna Institute of Demography/Austrian Academy of Sciences); Bernhard Hammer (Technical University of Vienna, VID - Vienna Institute of Demography - OeAW - Austrian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: Abstract Understanding child-related costs is crucial given their impact on fertility and labour supply decisions. We explore the subjective cost of young children in Europe by analysing the effect of child births on parents' self-reported ability to make ends meet, and link it to changes in objective economic well-being such as income, benefits, and employment. The study is based on EU-SILC longitudinal data for 30 European countries from 2004 to 2019, enabling comparisons between country groups of different welfare regimes. Results show that newborns decrease subjective economic well-being in all regions, yet with economies of scale for the number of children. Mediation analyses reveal that the substantial labour income losses of mothers (indirect costs) explain only a small part of subjective child costs. In the first year after birth, these losses are mostly compensated for via public transfers or increased labour income of fathers, except in regions where women take extensive parental leave. This suggests that the initial drop in subjective economic well-being after childbirth is caused by increased expenses due to the birth of a child (direct costs) and other drivers such as stress that are reflected in the self-reported indicator.
    Date: 2022–05–15
  2. By: Stephen Bazen; Xavier Joutard; Hélène Périvier (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: There is a large literature on the existence of a child penalty for mothers after the birth of a child. There is little discernible effect on fathers' labour incomes, although some studies find that there is a premium. We measure the penalty due to the birth of a first child for both parents for cohorts of young adults after leaving the educational system. Using an event study approach, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the child penalty in France not only in terms of monthly earnings, but also the employment rate, working hours, hourly earnings, and other outcomes. Using on a rich dataset, we estimate child penalty by educational level and for different cohorts. We find evidence of a significant child penalty for mothers: 23% in monthly earnings overall, rising to 35% for those with secondary education only. For the 2010 cohort, we observe the same level of absolute child penalties for mothers, whereas the relative penalty has narrowed. This is due to a decrease in monthly earnings, and more precisely in employment rate of fathers before and after the birth of the child in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.
    Keywords: child penalty, young adults, event study
    Date: 2021–10–01
  3. By: Sengupta, Shruti (Oklahoma State University); Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University)
    Abstract: Using a district-level panel constructed from five waves of decennial Indian censuses covering 1971-2011, we examine the medium-term (1991-2001) and long-term (1991-2011) impacts of the 1991 Indian trade liberalization on marriage and fertility rates among young women aged 15-34 years. We exploit the fact that countrywide tariff reductions varied across industries creating exogenous local labor market shocks based on the initial employment composition of the district. We find heterogeneous results across urban and rural areas. We find that urban areas of the districts that experienced larger tariff cuts experienced relative increase in marriage rate compared to the districts that experienced smaller tariff cuts. Moreover, tariff cuts positively affect the workforce participation among both young men and women in urban areas. However, there is no impact of tariff cuts on marriage rate or workforce participation among young for rural areas. In contrast, tariff cuts reduced fertility rate mostly in rural areas.
    Keywords: marriage, fertility, trade liberalization
    JEL: J12 J13 O12
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Maria Noel Pi Alperin; Magali Perquin; Giordana Gastón
    Abstract: This paper uses long-term population projections to study the evolution of dementia in Luxembourg through 2070, as well as its impact on public expenditure through healthcare and long-term care. We extend the Giordana and Pi Alperin (2022) model by adding an algorithm to identify individuals suffering from dementia. This allows us to simulate dementia prevalence among individuals aged 50 and more in several scenarios incorporating alternative hypotheses about risk factors, new treatments and comorbidities (including long-run effects of COVID-19). Public health policies reducing stroke and hypertension risk could lower dementia prevalence by 17% and public expenditure on healthcare for dementia patients by a similar amount. A new treatment extending the mild dementia phase could nearly double prevalence and possibly triple the associated healthcare costs. Finally, past exposure to COVID-19 could raise prevalence by 12% to 24% in the medium term and public expenditure on dementia healthcare by 6% to 12%. Public expenditure on long-term care for dementia patients would increase even more, generally doubling by 2070.
    Keywords: Dementia; Luxembourg; Dynamic micro-simulation; SHARE; Healthcare; Health-related public expenditure; Long-term care
    JEL: D03 H30 I10 I12 I18
    Date: 2023–01

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