nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
seventeen papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Who cares: Deciphering China's female employment paradox By Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong
  2. Maternal and Infant Health Inequality: New Evidence from Linked Administrative Data By Kennedy-Moulton, Kate; Miller, Sarah; Persson, Petra; Rossin-Slater, Maya; Wherry, Laura R.; Aldana, Gloria
  3. Employment uncertainty and non-coresidential partnership in very-low fertility countries: Italy and Japan By Ryohei Mogi; Ryota Mugiyama; Giammarco Alderotti
  4. Stable marital histories predict happiness and health across educational groups By Miika Mäki; Anna Erika Hägglund; Anna Rotkirch; Sangita Kulathinal; Mikko Myrskylä
  5. Children and Grandchildren of Union Army Veterans: New Data Collections to Study the Persistence of Longevity and Socioeconomic Status Across Generations By Dora Costa; CoraLee Lewis; Noelle Yetter
  6. The Effect of Financial Resources on Homeownership, Marriage, and Fertility: Evidence from State Lotteries By George Bulman; Sarena Goodman; Adam Isen
  7. Early child care and labor supply of lower-SES mothers: A randomized controlled trial By Hermes, Henning; Krauß, Marina; Lergetporer, Philipp; Peter, Frauke; Wiederhold, Simon
  8. Like father like son? Intergenerational immobility in England, 1851-1911 By Zhu, Ziming
  9. The Impact of Paid Family Leave on Families with Health Shocks By Courtney Coile; Maya Rossin-Slater; Amanda Su
  10. The Social Tax: Redistributive Pressure and Labor Supply By Carranza, Eliana; Donald, Aletheia; Grosset, Florian; Kaur, Supreet
  11. Aging in Style: Does How We Write Matter? By Hamermesh, Daniel S.; Kosnik, Lea-Rachel
  12. The Impact of the Age Distribution on Unemployment: Evidence from US States By Bruce Fallick; Christopher L. Foote
  13. Population ageing and government revenue: Expected trends and policy considerations to boost revenue By David Crowe; Jörg Haas; Valentine Millot; Łukasz Rawdanowicz; Sébastien Turban
  14. Does parental separation moderate the heritability of health risk behavior among adolescents? By Philipp Dierker; Mine Kühn; Bastian Mönkediek
  15. Domestic Violence and the Mental Health and Well-being of Victims and Their Children By Bhuller, Manudeep; Dahl, Gordon B.; Løken, Katrine V.; Mogstad, Magne
  16. Counting Missing Women – A Reconciliation of the 'Flow Measure' and the 'Stock Measure' By Ebert, Cara; Klasen, Stephan; Vollmer, Sebastian
  17. Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labor Supply By Theloudis, Alexandros; Velilla, Jorge; Chiappori, Pierre-André; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto

  1. By: Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong
    Abstract: Female post-childbirth labor market participation and labor intensity are extraordinarily high in China, given that public childcare subsidies are limited and supportive policies for childbearing female employees are largely absent. Establishing a panel dataset that tracks female employment and childbirth, we find that such a paradox is well-explained by the intra-family childcare support provided by grandparents. Correcting the selection bias that stems from women's fertility choices using the propensity score matching difference-in-difference model, we find that women without grandparental support suffer a substantial drop in post-childbirth employment, while women with grandparental support even experience a rise in employment after childbirth. It takes women without grandparental support twice as long to recover their employment after childbirth. Finally, we find that childbirth does not decrease women's labor intensity due to a lack of labor market flexibility, and that women face a stay-or-quit dilemma when grandparental childcare support is absent.
    Keywords: Financial frictions,management practices,CO2 emissions,energy efficiencygrandparental childcare,PSM-DID,fertility choice,female employment,labor intensity
    JEL: C24 J13 J22
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Kennedy-Moulton, Kate (Columbia University); Miller, Sarah (University of Michigan); Persson, Petra (Stanford University); Rossin-Slater, Maya (Stanford University); Wherry, Laura R. (New York University); Aldana, Gloria (US Census Bureau)
    Abstract: We use linked administrative data on the universe of California births to provide novel evidence on economic inequality in infant and maternal health. Infants and mothers at the top of the income distribution have worse birth and morbidity outcomes than their lowest-income counterparts, but are nevertheless the least likely to die in the year following birth. Racial disparities swamp these income disparities, with no racial convergence in health outcomes as income rises. A comparison with Sweden shows that infant and maternal health is worse in California at virtually all income levels.
    Keywords: maternal and infant health, health disparities, administrative data
    JEL: I14
    Date: 2022–11
  3. By: Ryohei Mogi (The Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark); Ryota Mugiyama (Department of Political Studies, Gakushuin University); Giammarco Alderotti (Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Application, University of Florence)
    Abstract: Having a partner is the initial step of any further family formation. Several studies have reported that growing labour market uncertainty has negative effects on both union formation and fertility; however, less is known about the previous step, that is, having a partner. Our study fills this gap in the literature by exploring the relationship between employment uncertainty and non-coresidential partnership status in two very-low fertility countries: Italy and Japan. We use two nationally representative surveys and examine the association between employment status and partnership status among 23–43-year-olds who have not had children and do not live with a partner (either cohabiting or married) based on logistic regression models. Our results show that employment status matters for having a non-coresidential partner only for Japanese women, particularly those unemployed/inactive, those who do not know their contract type and those with a fixed-term contract. We interpret our findings as indicating that in Italy, employment status does not matter for starting a relationship for both men and women because employment uncertainty prevails among young Italians. Regarding Japanese women, unemployed/inactive and fixed-term contractors may have difficulty finding a partner with their desired earning capacity. This study is one of few studies focusing on non-coresidential partnership as the initial step of further family formation. It demonstrates that the decision to have a partner is different from the decision to form a union, at least in terms of the association with employment status.
    Keywords: Non-coresidential partner; Employment uncertainty; Italy; Japan
    JEL: J12 J13
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Miika Mäki; Anna Erika Hägglund; Anna Rotkirch; Sangita Kulathinal; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Couple relations are a key determinant of mental and physical well-being in old age. However, we do not know how the advantages and disadvantages associated with partnership histories vary between socioeconomic groups. We create relationship history typologies for the cohorts 1945-1957 using the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe, and examine, for the first time, how relationship histories relate to multiple indicators of well-being by educational attainment. Results show that stable marriages co-occur with higher well-being, compared to single and less stable partnership histories. All educational groups experience clear and similar benefits from stable unions. The adverse outcomes of union dissolution are more pronounced for those with lower education. The larger drawbacks on well-being among the less educated, especially among men, suggest that those with fewer resources suffer more from losing a partner. The findings underscore that current and past romantic relations predict well-being in old age and help policymakers in identifying vulnerable subgroups among the aging population. Keywords: partnership history, cumulative disadvantage, health, quality of life, aging
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Dora Costa; CoraLee Lewis; Noelle Yetter
    Abstract: This paper introduces four new intergenerational and multigenerational datasets which follow both sons and daughters and which can be used to study the persistence of longevity, socioeconomic status, family structure, and geographic mobility across generations. The data follow the children of Black and White Union Army veterans from birth to death, linking them to the available censuses. The White samples include an over-sample of children of ex-POWs. A separate collection links grandchildren of White Union Army veterans to their death records. The data were created with high quality manual linkage procedures utilizing a wide variety of records to establish links.
    JEL: I14 J01 J10 N01
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: George Bulman; Sarena Goodman; Adam Isen
    Abstract: This paper leverages the universe of U.S. tax data and state lottery wins between 2000 and 2019 to estimate the causal effect of financial resources on three key lifecycle outcomes for young adults. We find large and persistent effects on homeownership, with a response function that exhibits substantial concavity but also an extremely high upper bound, and larger responses among higher-income individuals. Resources generate persistent increases in marriage for single men and women but do not increase the likelihood existing marriages are preserved. Fertility is modestly accelerated by a lottery win, but there is little effect on total fertility. Our results support a causal pathway behind differences in homeownership and marriage by socioeconomic status and inform theories of household formation and the family.
    JEL: D1 G5 J12 J13 R21
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Hermes, Henning; Krauß, Marina; Lergetporer, Philipp; Peter, Frauke; Wiederhold, Simon
    Abstract: We present experimental evidence that enabling access to universal early child care for families with lower socioeconomic status (SES) increases maternal labor supply. Our intervention provides families with customized help for child care applications, resulting in a large increase in enrollment among lower-SES families. The treatment increases lower-SES mothers' full-time employment rates by 9 percentage points (+160%), household income by 10%, and mothers' earnings by 22%. The effect on full-time employment is largely driven by increased care hours provided by child care centers and fathers. Overall, the treatment substantially improves intra-household gender equality in terms of child care duties and earnings.
    Keywords: child care, maternal employment, gender equality, randomized controlled trial
    JEL: D90 J13 J18 J22 C93
    Date: 2022
  8. By: Zhu, Ziming
    Abstract: This paper uses a linked sample of between 67,000 and 160,000 father-son pairs in 1851-1911 to provide revised estimates of intergenerational occupational mobility in England. After correcting for classical measurement errors using instrumental variables, I find that conventional estimates of intergenerational elasticities could severely underestimate the extent of father-son association in socioeconomic status. Instrumenting one measure of the father’s outcome with a second measure of the father’s outcome raises the intergenerational elasticities (β) of occupational status from 0.4 to 0.6-0.7. Victorian England was therefore a society of limited social mobility. The implications of my results for long-run evolution and international comparisons of social mobility in England are discussed.
    Keywords: social mobility; intergenerational mobility; nineteenth century; England
    JEL: J62 N33
    Date: 2022–12–01
  9. By: Courtney Coile; Maya Rossin-Slater; Amanda Su
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of paid family leave (PFL) policies in California, New Jersey, and New York on the labor market and mental health outcomes of individuals whose spouses or children experience health shocks. We use data from the 1996-2019 restricted-use version of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), which provides state of residence and the precise timing of hospitalizations and surgeries, our health shock measures. We use difference-in-difference and event-study models to compare the differences in post-health-shock labor market and mental health outcomes between spouses and parents before and after PFL implementation relative to analogous differences in states with no change in PFL access. We find that PFL access leads to a 7.0 percentage point decline in the likelihood that the (healthy) wives of individuals with medical conditions or limitations who experience a hospitalization or surgery report “leaving a job to care for home or family” in the post-health-shock rounds. Impacts of PFL access on women's mental health outcomes and on men whose spouses have health shocks are more mixed, and we find no effects on parents of children with health shocks. Lastly, we show that improvements in job continuity are concentrated among caregivers with 12 or fewer years of education, suggesting that government-provided PFL might reduce disparities in leave access.
    JEL: I18 J12 J18 J22
    Date: 2022–12
  10. By: Carranza, Eliana (World Bank); Donald, Aletheia (World Bank); Grosset, Florian (Columbia University); Kaur, Supreet (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: In low-income communities in both rich and poor countries, redistributive transfers within kin and social networks are frequent. Such arrangements may distort labor supply—acting as a "social tax" that dampens the incentive to work. We document that across countries, from Cote d'Ivoire to the United States, social groups that undertake more interpersonal transfers work fewer hours. Using a field experiment, we enable piece-rate factory workers in Côte d'Ivoire to shield income using blocked savings accounts over 3-9 months. Workers may only deposit earnings increases, relative to baseline, mitigating income effects on labor supply. We vary whether the offered account is private or known to the worker's network, altering the likelihood of transfer requests against saved income. When accounts are private, take-up is substantively higher (60% vs. 14%). Offering private accounts sharply increases labor supply— raising work attendance by 10% and earnings by 11%. Outgoing transfers do not decline, indicating no loss in redistribution. Our estimates imply a 9-14% social tax rate. The welfare benefits of informal redistribution may come at a cost, depressing labor supply and productivity.
    Keywords: kin tax, informal insurance, illiquid savings, transfers, labor supply
    JEL: J22 J24 H24 D61 O12
    Date: 2022–11
  11. By: Hamermesh, Daniel S. (University of Texas at Austin); Kosnik, Lea-Rachel (University of Missouri-St. Louis)
    Abstract: The scholarly impact of academic research matters for academic promotions, influence, relevance to public policy, and others. Focusing on writing style in top-level professional journals, we examine how it changes with age, how stylistic differences and age affect impact, and how style and prior scholarly output relate to an author's subsequent achievements and labor-force decisions. As top-level scholars age, their writing style increasingly differs from others'. The impact (measured by citations) of each contribution decreases, due to the direct effect of age and the much smaller indirect effects through style. Non-native English speakers write in a different style from others, in ways that reduce the impact of their research. Scholars produce less top-flight work as they age, especially those who have produced less in the recent past, whose work is less cited, and whose styles have been more positive. Previously less productive authors are more likely to retire.
    Keywords: aging, citations, bibliometrics, language
    JEL: B41 A14
    Date: 2022–11
  12. By: Bruce Fallick; Christopher L. Foote
    Abstract: Economists have studied the potential effects of shifts in the age distribution on the unemployment rate for more than 50 years. Most of this analysis uses a “shift-share” method, which assumes that the demographic structure has no indirect effects on age-specific unemployment rates. This paper uses state-level data to revisit the influence of the age distribution on unemployment in the United States. We examine demographic effects across the entire age distribution rather than just the youth share of the population—the focus of most previous work—and extend the date range of analysis beyond that which was available for previous research. We find that shifts in the age distribution move the unemployment rate in the direction that a mechanical shift-share model would predict. But these effects are larger than the mechanical model would generate, indicating the presence of amplifying indirect effects of the age distribution on unemployment.
    Keywords: age distribution; unemployment; shift-share
    JEL: E24 J21
    Date: 2022–10–01
  13. By: David Crowe; Jörg Haas; Valentine Millot; Łukasz Rawdanowicz; Sébastien Turban
    Abstract: Population ageing is expected to result in significantly higher government spending in many OECD countries in the coming decades. This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic consequences of population ageing for government revenue in a framework consistent with the OECD long-term model. If the labour and capital income shares in GDP remain constant and pension income increases in relation to GDP, the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio will increase slightly. However, this will not be enough to cover the total increase in government spending due to population ageing. If governments do not mitigate spending pressures by structural reforms or cuts in pension entitlements, they will have to boost tax revenue significantly to prevent public debt from expanding. In many countries, it will not be possible, nor advisable, to completely finance the increase in long-term spending with only one tax instrument as it would require a massive rise in the tax rate, with risks of ensuing distortions. Thus, governments will have to choose mixes of tax increases, accounting for growth, equity and political considerations. This paper reviews these considerations for several specific tax categories.
    Keywords: pensions, population ageing, public finances, tax policy, tax revenue
    JEL: H21 H23 H24 H55 I38 J14 E17
    Date: 2022–12–13
  14. By: Philipp Dierker (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mine Kühn (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Bastian Mönkediek
    Abstract: Social influences on adolescents’ health risk behavior are well documented, but little is known about the interaction of parental separation with genetic sensitivities. Using data from a German sample of 1, 824 twins, this study examines whether family living arrangements moderate the extent to which health risk behavior among adolescents is influenced by genetic predispositions. Derived from variance decomposition moderator models, the results provide evidence of a significantly larger genetic contribution to smoking among adolescents living in single-mother families than among adolescents living with both parents, but not of the moderation of heritability for drug use and excessive alcohol consumption. Thus, these findings indicate that the unfolding of genetic risk is increased for smoking, but not for other substances. However, the significantly stronger influences of individual experiences of drug use observed in single-mother families reveal the overall vulnerability of families who have experienced parental separation.
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Bhuller, Manudeep (University of Oslo, Statistics Norway, IZA, CEPR, CReAM, CESifo); Dahl, Gordon B. (UC San Diego, Norwegian School of Economics, NBER, IZA, CEPR, CESifo); Løken, Katrine V. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Mogstad, Magne (University of Chicago, Statistics Norway, University of Bergen, University of Oslo, NBER, IZA, IFS, CESifo)
    Abstract: Almost one third of women worldwide report some form of physical or sexual violence by a partner in their lifetime, yet little is known about the mental health and well-being effects for either victims or their children. We study the costs associated with domestic violence (DV) in the context of Norway, where we can link offenders to victims and their children over time. Our difference-in-differences framework uses those who will be victimized in the future as controls. We find that a DV report involving the police is associated with large changes in the home environment, including marital dissolution and a corresponding decline in financial resources. A DV report increases mental health visits by 35% for victims and by 19% for their children in the year of the event, effects which taper off over time for the victim, but not for children. Victims also experience more doctor visits, lower employment, reduced earnings and a higher use of disability insurance while their children are more likely to receive child protective services and commit a crime. Using a complementary RD design, we find that a DV report results in declines both in children’s test scores and completion of the first year of high school.
    Keywords: mental health; domestic violence
    JEL: I10 J12
    Date: 2022–12–14
  16. By: Ebert, Cara (RWI); Klasen, Stephan (University of Göttingen); Vollmer, Sebastian (University of Goettingen)
    Abstract: 'Stock estimates' of missing women suggest that the problem is concentrated in South and East Asia and among young children. In contrast, 'flow estimates' suggest that gender bias in mortality is much larger, is as severe among adults as it is among children in India and China, and is larger in Sub-Saharan Africa than in India and China. We show that the different stock and flow measure results rely on the choice of the reference standard for mortality and an incomplete correction for different disease environments in the flow measure. Alternative reference standards reconcile the results of the two measures.
    Keywords: missing women, gender bias, mortality, disease, age, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, India
    JEL: J16 D63 I14 I15 O15
    Date: 2022–12
  17. By: Theloudis, Alexandros (Tilburg University); Velilla, Jorge (University of Zaragoza); Chiappori, Pierre-André (Columbia University); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza)
    Abstract: The extent to which individuals commit to their partner for life has important implications. This paper develops a lifecycle collective model of the household, through which it characterizes behavior in three prominent alternative types of commitment: full, limited, and no commitment. We propose a test that distinguishes between all three types based on how contemporaneous and historical news affect household behavior. Our test permits heterogeneity in the degree of commitment across households. Using recent data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we reject full and no commitment, while we find strong evidence for limited commitment.
    Keywords: household behavior, intertemporal choice, commitment, collective model, family labor supply, dynamics, wages, PSID
    JEL: D12 D13 D15 J22 J31
    Date: 2022–11

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