nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒12‒12
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. A Healthy Marriage? Marital Status and Adult Mortality in Landskrona, Sweden, 1905-2015 By van Dijk, Ingrid K; Dribe, Martin
  2. The her in inheritance: how marriage matching has always mattered, Quebec 1800-1970 By Matthew Curtis
  3. Population aging and bank risk-taking By Sebastian Doerr; Gazi Kabas; Steven Ongena
  4. Postponement, career development and fertility rebound By Johanna Etner; Natacha Raffin; Thomas Seegmuller
  5. Public Childcare, Labor Market Outcomes of Caregivers, and Child Development: Experimental Evidence from Brazil By Attanasio, Orazio; de Barros, Ricardo Paes; Carneiro, Pedro; Evans, David K.; Lima, Lycia; Olinto, Pedro; Schady, Norbert

  1. By: van Dijk, Ingrid K; Dribe, Martin
    Abstract: Marriage is protective of survival and contributes to healthy ageing, whereas both singlehood and widowhood are related to increased mortality and poor health. The long-term change in the mortality differentials by marital status, and its interaction with gender and social class, has not been systematically addressed in the literature. In this study, we explore the marriage premium for survival and widowhood, bereavement and divorce penalties for survival over time using an established database for Southern Sweden (SEDD) between 1905 and 2015. We show that married men have and had a survival premium, while especially widowers have increased mortality, most strongly directly after bereavement but also in the longer run. It is remarkable that there is such stability in the survival advantage of married men, despite massive social, economic and demographic changes. Mortality differentials by marital status are smaller for women and absent for much of the twentieth century. Over time, it appears that there has been convergence in the patterns of mortality by marital status between men and women. The divergence in mortality by marital status for women started in the blue-collar class. White-collar and blue-collar men were similarly affected by marital status. Overall, we conclude that marital status is important for longevity, and has been so for the entire twentieth century for men, and increasingly also for women.
    Date: 2022–07–27
  2. By: Matthew Curtis
    Abstract: When did marriage become strongly assortative? Is it a recent development, aconsequence of increased female employment and a cause of rising inequality? A longrun perspective is necessary to answer this question. This paper uses a uniquely suitabledatabase from Quebec 1800{1970 to provide such a perspective. First, it develops anovel method which reveals that marriage was highly assortative as far back as the earlynineteenth century. Next, it shows this matching depended on the individual humancapital of women, not just on family backgrounds. Finally, it shows that mothers hada causal impact on child outcomes independently from fathers. Thus, despite deeplyconservative gender norms, marriage matching
    Keywords: Assortative mating; marriage matching; sorting; human captial; intergenerational mobility
    JEL: J12 J62 N31 N32
    Date: 2022–11
  3. By: Sebastian Doerr; Gazi Kabas; Steven Ongena
    Abstract: What are the implications of an aging population for financial stability? To examine this question, we exploit geographic variation in aging across U.S. counties. We establish that banks with higher exposure to aging counties increase loan-to-income ratios, especially where they operate no branches. Laxer lending standards also lead to higher nonperforming loans during downturns, suggesting higher credit risk. Inspecting the mechanism shows that aging drives risk-taking through two contemporaneous channels: deposit in ows due to seniors' propensity to save in deposits; and depressed local investment opportunities due to seniors' lower credit demand. Banks thus look for riskier clients in no-branch counties.
    Keywords: risk-taking, financial stability, low interest rates, population aging, demographics.
    JEL: E51 G21
    Date: 2022–11
  4. By: Johanna Etner (EconomiX,Univ Paris Nanterre, CNRS. F92000 Nanterre, France.); Natacha Raffin (Universite Paris-Saclay, ENS Paris-Saclay, Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.); Thomas Seegmuller (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France.)
    Abstract: We use an overlapping generations setup with two reproductive periods to explore how fertility decisions may differ in response to economic incentives in early and late adulthood. In particular, we analyze the interplay between fertility choices-related to career opportunities-and wages, and investigate the role played by late fertility. We show that young adults only postpone parenthood above a certain wage threshold and that late fertility increases with investment in human capital. The long run trend is either to a low productivity equilibrium, involving high early fertility, no investment in human capital and relatively low income, or to a high productivity equilibrium, where households postpone parenthood to invest in their human capital, with higher late fertility and higher levels of income. A convergence to the latter state would explain the postponement of parenthood and the fertility rebound observed in Europe in recent decades.
    Keywords: fertility, postponement, reproductive health, overlapping generations
    JEL: J11 J13 E21
    Date: 2022–11
  5. By: Attanasio, Orazio (Yale University); de Barros, Ricardo Paes (Insper, São Paulo); Carneiro, Pedro (University College London); Evans, David K. (Center for Global Development); Lima, Lycia (Sao Paulo School of Economics); Olinto, Pedro (World Bank); Schady, Norbert (World Bank)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of publicly provided daycare for children aged 0-3 on outcomes of children and their caregivers over the course of seven years after enrollment into daycare. At the end of 2007, the city of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil used a lottery to assign children to limited public daycare openings. Winning the lottery translated to a 34 percent increase in time in daycare during a child's first four years of life. This allowed caregivers more time to work, resulting in higher incomes for beneciary households in the first year of daycare attendance and 4 years later (but not after 7 years, by which time all children were eligible for universal schooling). The rise in labor force participation is driven primarily by grandparents and by adolescent siblings residing in the same household as (and possibly caring for) the child, and not by parents, most of whom were already working. Beneciary children saw sustained gains in height-for-age and weight-for-age, due to better nutritional intake at school and at home. Gains in beneciary children's cognitive development were observed 4 years after enrolment but not later.
    Keywords: early child development, childcare, Brazil
    JEL: I21 I28 J22 O15
    Date: 2022–11

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