nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒11‒07
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Demographic Transitions across Time and Space By Delventhal, Matthew J.; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Guner, Nezih
  2. The Geography of Child Penalties and Gender Norms: Evidence from the United States By Henrik Kleven
  3. Women's Careers and Family Formation By Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Clarke, Damian; Walther, Selma
  4. Expansions in Paid Parental Leave and Mothers’ Economic Progress By Corekcioglu, Gozde; Francesconi, Marco; Kunze, Astrid
  5. The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic By Martha J. Bailey; Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt
  6. Pandemic babies? Fertility in the aftermath of the first COVID-19 wave across European regions By Natalie Nitsche; Aiva Jasilioniene; Jessica Nisén; Peng Li; Maxi S. Kniffka; Jonas Schöley; Gunnar Andersson; Christos Bagavos; Ann Berrington; Ivan Čipin; Susana Clemente; Lars Dommermuth; Peter Fallesen; Dovile Galdauskaite; Mathias Lerch; Cadhla McDonnell; Arno Muller; Karel Neels; Olga Pötzsch; Diego Ramiro; Bernhard Riederer; Saskia te Riele; Laura Szabó; Laurent Toulemon; Daniele Vignoli; Kryštof Zeman; Tina Žnidaršič
  7. Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socioeconomic status, and gender in South Africa By Anastasia Lam; Katherine Keenan; Mikko Myrskylä; Hill Kulu

  1. By: Delventhal, Matthew J. (Claremont McKenna College); Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús (University of Pennsylvania); Guner, Nezih (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: The demographic transition –the move from a high fertility/high mortality regime into a low fertility/low mortality regime– is one of the most fundamental transformations that countries undertake. To study demographic transitions across time and space, we compile a data set of birth and death rates for 186 countries spanning more than 250 years. We document that (i) a demographic transition has been completed or is ongoing in nearly every country; (ii) the speed of transition has increased over time; and (iii) having more neighbors that have started the transition is associated with a higher probability of a country beginning its own transition. To account for these observations, we build a quantitative model in which parents choose child quantity and educational quality. Countries differ in geographic location, and improved production and medical technologies diffuse outward from Great Britain, the technological leader. Our framework replicates well the timing and increasing speed of transitions. It also produces a strong correlation between the speeds of fertility transition and increases in schooling similar to the one in the data. Keywords: Demographic transition, skill-biased technological change, diffusion.
    Keywords: demographic transition, skill-biased technological change, diffusion
    JEL: J13 N3 O11 O33 O40
    Date: 2022–09
  2. By: Henrik Kleven (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper develops a new approach to estimating child penalties based on cross-sectional data and pseudo-event studies around child birth. The approach is applied to US data and validated against the state-of-the-art panel data approach. Child penalties can be accurately estimated using cross-sectional data, which are widely available and give more statistical power than typical panel datasets. Five main empirical findings are presented. First, US child penalties have declined significantly over the last five decades, but almost all of this decline occurred during the earlier part of the period. Child penalties have been virtually constant since the 1990s, explaining the slowdown of gender convergence during this period. Second, child penalties vary enormously over space. The employment penalty ranges from 12% in the Dakotas to 38% in Utah, while the earnings penalty ranges from 21% in Vermont to 61% in Utah. Third, child penalties correlate strongly with measures of gender norms. The evolution of child penalties mirrors the evolution of gender progressivity over time, with a greater fall in child penalties in states where gender progressivity has increased more. Fourth, an epidemiological study of gender norms using US-born movers and foreign-born immigrants is presented. The child penalty for US movers is strongly related to the child penalty in their state of birth, adjusting for selection in their state of residence. Parents born in high-penalty states (such as Utah or Idaho) have much larger child penalties than those born in low-penalty states (such as the Dakotas or Rhode Island), conditional on where they live. Similarly, the child penalty for foreign immigrants is strongly related to the child penalty in their country of birth. Immigrants born in high-penalty countries (such as Mexico or Iran) have much larger child penalties than immigrants born in low-penalty countries (such as China or Sweden). Evidence is presented to show that these effects are not driven by selection. Finally, immigrants assimilate to US culture over time: A comparison of child penalties among first-generation and later-generation immigrants shows that differences by country of origin eventually disappear.
    Keywords: Child Penalties, Panel Data Approach, Children, Immigrants, United States
    JEL: C23 J13
    Date: 2022–07
  3. By: Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Warwick); Clarke, Damian (University of Chile); Walther, Selma
    Abstract: This paper discusses research on the relationship between fertility and women's labour force participation. It surveys methods used to obtain causal identification, and provides an overview of the evidence of causal effects in both directions. We highlight a few themes that we regard as important in guiding research and in reading the evidence. These include the importance of distinguishing between extensive and intensive margin changes in both variables; consideration not only of women's participation but also of occupational and sectoral choice and of relative earnings; the relevance of studying dynamic effects and of analysing changes across the lifecycle and across successive cohorts; and of recognizing that women's choices over both fertility and labour force participation are subject to multiple constraints. We observe that, while technological innovations in reproductive health technologies have muted the familycareer tradeoff primarily by allowing women to time their fertility, policy has not achieved as much as it might.
    Keywords: fertility, birth spacing, abortion, ART, IVF, contraception, female labour force participation, gender wage gap, job loss, recession
    JEL: J01 J13 O15
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Corekcioglu, Gozde (Kadir Has University); Francesconi, Marco (University of Essex); Kunze, Astrid (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of government-funded universal paid parental leave extensions on the likelihood that mothers reach top-pay jobs and executive positions, using eight Norwegian reforms. Up to a quarter of a century after childbirth, such reforms neither helped nor hurt mothers’ chances to be at the top of their companies’ pay ranking or in leadership positions. We detect no differential effect across many characteristics, and no impact on other outcomes, such as hours worked and promotions. No reform affected fathers’ pay or the gender pay gaps between mothers and their male colleagues and between mothers and their partners.
    Keywords: Gender inequality; Within-firm pay ranking; Glass ceiling; Leadership; Top executives
    JEL: H42 J13 J16 J18 M12 M14
    Date: 2022–10–05
  5. By: Martha J. Bailey (University of California, Los Angeles); Janet Currie (Princeton University); Hannes Schwandt (Northwestern University)
    Abstract: We use restricted natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 to August 2022 to examine the childbearing response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although fertility rates declined in 2020, these declines appear to reflect reductions in travel to the U.S. Childbearing in the U.S. among foreign-born mothers declined immediately after lockdowns began—nine months too soon to reflect the pandemic’s effects on conceptions. We also find that the COVID pandemic resulted in a small “baby bump†among U.S.-born mothers. The 2021 baby bump is the first major reversal in declining U.S. fertility rates since 2007 and was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, which suggests the pandemic led some women to start their families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was also pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education, who were more likely to benefit from working from home. The data for California track the U.S. data closely and suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through the third quarter of 2022.
    Keywords: Birth Rates, COVID, Fertility, "Baby Bump", Child Bearing, United States
    JEL: J0
    Date: 2022–10
  6. By: Natalie Nitsche (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Aiva Jasilioniene (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jessica Nisén (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Peng Li (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Maxi S. Kniffka (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Jonas Schöley (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Gunnar Andersson (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Christos Bagavos; Ann Berrington; Ivan Čipin; Susana Clemente; Lars Dommermuth; Peter Fallesen; Dovile Galdauskaite (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mathias Lerch (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Cadhla McDonnell; Arno Muller; Karel Neels; Olga Pötzsch; Diego Ramiro; Bernhard Riederer; Saskia te Riele; Laura Szabó; Laurent Toulemon; Daniele Vignoli (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kryštof Zeman (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Tina Žnidaršič
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022
  7. By: Anastasia Lam (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Katherine Keenan; Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Hill Kulu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The burden of multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how many years someone is expected to live with multimorbidity, and how it varies by social and economic factors particularly in low- and middle-income countries. We investigate this in South Africa, where its apartheid history further complicates the roles of race, socioeconomic, and gender inequalities in society. This underlines the importance of taking an intersectional perspective when trying to understand the interplay of these factors and how they influence health and mortality. We introduce the term ‘multimorbid life expectancy’ to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using an incidence-based multistate Markov modeling approach, we find that females had higher multimorbid life expectancy than males (17.7 years vs 9.9 years), and this disparity was consistent across all race and education groups. Asian/Indians and the post-secondary educated had the highest multimorbid life expectancy relative to other groups. White males seemed to benefit the most from having more education, while African males and females seemed to benefit the least. This suggests associations between structural inequalities and multimorbid life expectancy, highlighting the need for health system and educational policy changes that are proportionate to each group’s level of need.
    Keywords: South Africa, adult mortality, apartheid, chronic diseases, education, gender, infectious diseases, life expectancy, morbidity, races, socio-economic status
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2022

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