nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒09‒26
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Family Formation and Crime By Maxim N. Massenkoff; Evan K. Rose
  2. Intergenerational Transmission of Family Influence By Eshaghnia, Sadegh S. M.; Heckman, James J.; Landerso, Rasmus; Qureshi, Rafeh
  3. Unconditional Cash and Family Investments in Infants: Evidence from a Large-Scale Cash Transfer Experiment in the U.S. By Lisa A. Gennetian; Greg Duncan; Nathan A. Fox; Katherine Magnuson; Sarah Halpern-Meekin; Kimberly G. Noble; Hirokazu Yoshikawa
  4. Causal Effects of Early Career Sorting on Labor and Marriage Market Choices: A Foundation for Gender Disparities and Norms By Itzik Fadlon; Frederik Plesner Lyngse; Torben Heien Nielsen
  5. Influenza Mortality in French Regions after the Hong Kong Flu Pandemic By Florian Bonnet; Hippolyte d'Albis; Josselin Thuilliez
  6. Childhood Vaccinations and Demographic Transition: Long-Term Evidence from India By Nandi, Arindam; Summan, Amit; Ngô, D. Thoai; Bloom, David E.

  1. By: Maxim N. Massenkoff; Evan K. Rose
    Abstract: We use administrative data from Washington State to perform a large-scale analysis of the impact of family formation on crime. Our estimates indicate that pregnancy triggers sharp declines in arrests rivaling any known intervention, supporting the view that childbirth is a "turning point" that reduces deviant behavior through social bonds. For mothers, criminal arrests drop precipitously in the first few months of pregnancy, stabilizing at half of pre-pregnancy levels three years after birth. Men show a sustained 20 percent decline in crime that begins at pregnancy, although arrests for domestic violence spike at birth. These effects are concentrated among first-time parents, suggesting that a permanent change in preferences---rather than transitory time and budget shocks---may be responsible. A separate design using parents of stillborn children to estimate counterfactual arrest rates reinforces the main findings. Marriage, in contrast, is not associated with any sudden changes and marks the completion of a gradual 50 percent decline in arrests for both men and women.
    JEL: J0 J12 J13 K14
    Date: 2022–08
  2. By: Eshaghnia, Sadegh S. M. (University of Chicago); Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago); Landerso, Rasmus (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Qureshi, Rafeh (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: This paper studies intergenerational mobility—the transmission of family influence. We develop and estimate measures of lifetime resources (income and wealth) motivated by economic theory that account for generational differences in life-cycle trajectories, uncertainty, and credit constraints. These measures of lifetime resources allow us to estimate the transmission of welfare and lifetime resources at different stages of the life cycle. We compare these measures with traditional ones such as wage income and disposable income measured over narrow windows of age that are used to proxy lifetime wealth. The performance of proxy measures is poor. Parents' expected lifetime resources are stronger predictors of many important child outcomes (including children's own expected lifetime resources and education) than the income measures traditionally used in the literature on social mobility. Changes in patterns of educational attainment across generations explain most of the intergenerational change in life-cycle dynamics. While relative mobility is overstated by the traditional income measures, absolute upward mobility is understated. Recent generations have higher welfare and are better off compared to their parents.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, life-cycle measures of resources, education
    JEL: I24 D31 I30
    Date: 2022–08
  3. By: Lisa A. Gennetian; Greg Duncan; Nathan A. Fox; Katherine Magnuson; Sarah Halpern-Meekin; Kimberly G. Noble; Hirokazu Yoshikawa
    Abstract: A key policy question in evaluating social programs to address childhood poverty is how families receiving unconditional financial support would spend those funds. Economists have limited empirical evidence on this topic in the U.S. We provide causal estimates of financial and time investments in infants among families living in poverty from a large-scale, multi-site randomized controlled study of monthly unconditional cash transfers starting at the time of a child’s birth. We find that the cash transfers increased spending on child-specific goods and mothers’ early-learning activities with their infants. The marginal propensity to consume child-focused items from the cash transfer exceeded that from other income, consistent with the behavioral cues in the cash transfer design. We find no statistically detectable offsets in household earnings nor statistically detectable impacts in other pre-registered outcomes related to general household expenditures, maternal labor supply, infants’ time in childcare, or mothers’ subjective well-being.
    JEL: D13 H31 I30 J13 J18 J22
    Date: 2022–08
  4. By: Itzik Fadlon (University of California, San Diego and NBER); Frederik Plesner Lyngse (University of Copenhagen and CEBI); Torben Heien Nielsen (University of Copenhagen and CEBI)
    Abstract: We study whether and how early labor market choices determine longer-run career versus family outcomes differentially for male and female professionals. We analyze the physician labor market by exploiting a randomized lottery that determines the sorting of Danish physicians into internships across local labor markets. Using administrative data spanning ten years after physicians’ graduations, we find causal effects of early-career sorting on a range of life cycle outcomes that cascade from labor market choices, including human capital accumulation and occupational choice, to marriage market choices, including matching and fertility. The persistent effects are entirely concentrated among women, whereas men experience only temporary career disruptions. The evidence points to differential family-career tradeoffs and the mentorship employers provide as channels underlying this gender divergence. Our findings have implications for policies aimed at gender equality in outcomes, as they reveal how persistent gaps can arise even in institutionally gender-neutral settings with early-stage equality of opportunity.
    Keywords: Economics of Gender, Human Capital, Occupational Choice, Marriage Market, Fertility, Career versus Family Tradeoff, Early Career Sorting
    JEL: J16 J13 J24 R23
    Date: 2022–07–19
  5. By: Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Hippolyte d'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Josselin Thuilliez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956-57) and the Hong-Kong flu (1969-1970). This study's objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969, and decreased from 1970 onward. The Hong-Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density or aging ratio. Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.
    Date: 2022–08
  6. By: Nandi, Arindam (The Population Council); Summan, Amit (One Health Trust); Ngô, D. Thoai (The Population Council); Bloom, David E. (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Childhood vaccines can increase population growth in the short term by improving the survival rates of young children. Over the long run, reductions in child mortality rates are associated with lower demand for children and fertility rates (known as "demographic transition"). Vaccines can potentially aid demographic transition by lowering child mortality and improving future health, schooling, and labor market outcomes of vaccinated mothers, but these long-term demographic benefits remain untested. In this study, we examine the demographic effects of India's national childhood vaccination program (the Universal Immunization Programme or UIP). We combine data on the district-wise rollout of UIP during 1985–1990 with fertility preference data of 625,000 adult women from the National Family Health Survey of India 2015–2016. We include women who were born five years before and after the rollout period (1980–1995) and were cohabiting with a partner at the time of the survey. We divide these 20-36-year-old women into two groups: those who were exposed to UIP at birth (treatment group) and those who were born before the program (control group). After controlling for individual- and household-level factors and age and district fixed effects, treatment group women are 2% less likely to have at least one child and want 2% fewer children in their lifetime as compared with the control group. The negative effect on at least one childbirth is larger for more educated and richer women, while the effect on the desired number of children is larger for uneducated and poorer women.
    Keywords: India, UIP, demographic transition, demand for fertility
    JEL: I15 J13 J18 I10
    Date: 2022–08

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