nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒07‒18
nine papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
University of Wisconsin

  1. Motherhood, Pregnancy or Marriage Effects By Berniell, Inés; Berniell, Lucila; de la Mata, Dolores; Edo, María; Fawaz, Yarine; Machado, Matilde P.
  2. Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting By Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
  3. Trading Social Status for Genetics in Marriage Markets: Evidence from UK Biobank By Abdel Abdellaoui; Oana Borcan; Pierre-André Chiappori; David Hugh-Jones
  4. The optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies policies By Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Gregory Ponthiere
  5. Italy's demographic trap: voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes By Katerina Koka; Chiara Rapallini
  6. The Effect of Removing Early Retirement on Mortality By Cristina Belles; Sergi Jiménez; Han Ye
  7. Unstable Employment Careers and Completed Fertility before and after Labour Market Deregulation in Italy By Giammarco Alderotti; Raffaele Guetto; Paolo Barbieri; Stefani Scherer; Daniele Vignoli
  8. QALYs, DALYs, and HALYs: A Unifying Framework for the Evaluation of Population Health By Moreno-Ternero, Juan D.; Platz, Trine Tornøe; Østerdal, Lars Peter
  9. The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing By Bodnár, Katalin; Nerlich, Carolin

  1. By: Berniell, Inés; Berniell, Lucila; de la Mata, Dolores; Edo, María; Fawaz, Yarine; Machado, Matilde P.
    Abstract: The existence of large child penalties on women’s labor market outcomes has been documented for multiple countries and time periods. In this paper, we assess to what extent marriage decisions and pregnancies (including those ending in non-live births), may explain partly these child penalties. Using data for 29 countries drawn from SHARE, we show that although marriage has a negative effect on women’s employment (3.3%), its magnitude is much smaller compared with the negative effect of a first child (23%). Moreover, we find that pregnancies that end in non-live births have non-statistically significant effects on employment in the following years, supporting the exogeneity assumption underlying the identification in child penalty studies. These new results lend support to the hypothesis that child-rearing, rather than marriage or pregnancy, is responsible for women exiting the labor force upon motherhood.
    Keywords: Economía, Familia, Investigación socioeconómica, Mujer, Niñez,
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Osea Giuntella; Lorenzo Rotunno; Luca Stella
    Abstract: Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the effects of exposure to globalization on the fertility and marital behavior in Germany, until recently a lowest-low fertility setting. We find that exposure to greater import competition from Eastern Europe led to worse labor market outcomes and lower fertility rates. In contrast, workers in industries that benefited from increased exports had better employment prospects and higher fertility. These effects are driven by low-educated, married men, and full-time workers and reflect changes in the likelihood of having any child (extensive margin). While there is evidence of some fertility postponement, we find significant effects on completed fertility. There is instead little evidence of any significant impact on marital behavior.
    JEL: F1 F16 J1 J13
    Date: 2022–06
  3. By: Abdel Abdellaoui; Oana Borcan (University of East Anglia); Pierre-André Chiappori (Columbia University); David Hugh-Jones (University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: If socio-economic status (SES) and genetic variants are both assets in marriage markets, then the two will become associated in spouse pairs, and will be passed on together to future generations. This process provides a new explanation for the surprising persistence of inequality across generations, and for the genes-SES gradient: the genetic differences we observe between high- and low-income people. The gradient includes differences related to human capital and to physical and mental health, so understanding its origins is important for understanding inequality in general, and health inequalities in particular. We model social-genetic assortative mating (SGAM) and test for its existence in a large genetically-informed survey. We compare spouses of individuals with different birth order, which is known to affect socio-economic status and which is exogenous to own genetic endowments among siblings. Spouses of earlier-born individuals have genetic variants that predict higher educational attainment. We provide evidence that this effect is mediated by individuals’ own educational attainment and income. Thus, environmental shocks to socio-economic status are reflected in the DNA of subsequent generations. Our work uncovers a new channel by which economic institutions can affect long-run inequality; suggests that genes-SES gradients may be historically widespread; and shows that genetic variation is endogenous to social institutions.
    Keywords: intergenerational mobility, gene-SES gradient, birth order
    JEL: I14 J12 J13
    Date: 2022–06
  4. By: Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Gregory Ponthiere
    Abstract: This paper studies the optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) policies in an economy where individuals di˙er in their reproductive capacity (or fecundity) and in their wage. We find that the optimal ART policy varies with the postulated social welfare criterion. Utilitarianism redistributes only between individuals with unequal fecundity and wages but not between parents and childless individuals. To the opposite, ex post egalitarianism (which gives absolute priority to the worst-o˙ in realized terms) redistributes from individuals with children toward those without children, and from individuals with high fecundity toward those with low fecundity, so as to compensate for both the monetary cost of ART and for the disutility from involuntary childlessness resulting from unsuccessful ART investments. Under asymmetric information and in order to solve for the incentive problem, utilitarianism recommends also to either tax or subsidize ART investments of low-fecundity-low-productivity individuals depending on the degree of complementarity between fecundity and ART in the fertility technology. On the opposite, ex post egalitarianism always recommends marginal taxation.
    Keywords: fertility, assisted reproductive technologies, non-linear taxation, utilitarian-ism, ex-post egalitarianism.
    JEL: H31 H51 I14 I18 J13
    Date: 2022
  5. By: Katerina Koka; Chiara Rapallini
    Abstract: In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogenous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47-0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic 'trap'.
    Keywords: Endogenous fertility; childcare subsidies; aging population, voting
    JEL: J11 J13 D72
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Cristina Belles; Sergi Jiménez; Han Ye
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the mortality effect of delaying retirement by investigating the Spanish 1967 pension reform that exogenously changed the early retirement age depending on the date individuals started contributing to the social security system. Those that contributed before January 1st, 1967, maintained the right to voluntarily retire early at age 60, while individuals who started contributing after could not voluntarily claim pension until age 65. Using the Spanish administrative social security data, we find that the reform delayed labor market exit by around half a year and increased the probability that individuals take up disability pensions, partial pensions, and no pensions. We show evidence that delaying existing employment increases the harzard of dying between ages 60 and 69. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that the negative impact is driven by those employed in low-skill, physically and psychosocially demanding jobs. Moreover, we show that allowing for flexible retirement schemes, such as partial retirement, mitigates the negative effect of delaying retirement on mortality.
    Date: 2022–06
  7. By: Giammarco Alderotti (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Raffaele Guetto (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Paolo Barbieri (Università di Trento); Stefani Scherer (Università di Trento); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: Labour market instability comes with consequences for fertility decisions. Especially in the southern European context insecure employment situations hamper the transition to parenthood. Most research so far has focused on first childbirth, ignoring potential ‘catching up’ effects and thus the more encompassing view on cohort fertility. This paper extends on this point analysing the consequences of employment insecurities on completed fertility for men and women in Italy. In a cohort perspective, we look at fertility outcomes at age 41 or more among those who experienced labour market deregulation (cohorts born 1966-1975) in comparison with the previous cohort (born 1951-1965), and relate the fertility outcome to the instability of their employment histories. Based on data from a large-scale, nationally representative retrospective survey administrated by the National Statistical Office, we find that fragmented employment careers and atypical employment periods come with lower likelihood to ever become a parent and lower number of children than continuous, stable careers. This paper suggests – for the first time – that the consequences of rising labour market instability for fertility is not only a timing but also a quantum issue, at least for Italy. This is true especially for men and for the younger cohorts.
    JEL: J13 J41 J64
    Date: 2022–06
  8. By: Moreno-Ternero, Juan D. (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Platz, Trine Tornøe; Østerdal, Lars Peter (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: We provide a unifying framework for the evaluation of population health. We formalize several axioms for social preferences over distributions of health. We show that a specific combination of those axioms characterizes a large class of population health evaluation functions combining concerns for quality of life, quantity of life and health shortfalls. We refer to the class as (unweighted) aggregations of health-adjusted life years (HALYs). Two focal (and somewhat polar) members of this family are the (unweighted) aggregations of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). We also provide new characterization results for these focal members that enable us to scrutinize their normative foundations and shed new light on their similarities and differences.
    Keywords: Population health; QALYs; DALYs; HYEs; Axioms
    JEL: D63 I10
    Date: 2022–05–20
  9. By: Bodnár, Katalin; Nerlich, Carolin
    Abstract: The euro area, like many other advanced economies, has entered an era of drastic demographic change. Without appropriate policy responses, population ageing in the euro area is posing formidable challenges for potential growth, monetary policy and public finances. This paper examines – from a central bank’s perspective – the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of population ageing in the euro area and looks at the main challenges ahead in the next decades. Total population in the euro area is projected to decline as of around 2035, while the old-age dependency ratio will rise strongly in the coming 15 years, putting additional burden on pension systems. The analysis in the paper finds that the demographic changes in the euro area present a drag on potential growth, mainly through labour supply and productivity growth – similarly to developments in Japan, which is ahead of the euro area in terms of population ageing. Precautionary savings may be higher, and the natural rate of interest lower, while the effect on trend inflation and wages are not obvious. Population ageing is posing a burden on fiscal policy, through upward pressure on pension spending and adversely affecting the tax bases and the structure of public revenues. Thus, it poses significant challenges for fiscal sustainability, limits fiscal policy space and effectiveness. To safeguard against the adverse economic and fiscal consequences of population ageing, there is a need for fiscal buffers, improved quality of public finance and structural reforms. JEL Classification: E24, E52, E62, J11, J21
    Keywords: euro area, fiscal policy, Japan, labour force, population ageing, potential growth
    Date: 2022–06

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