nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒06‒27
eight papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Stable Income, Stable Family By Lindo, Jason M.; Regmi, Krishna; Swensen, Isaac D.
  2. The Fertility Effect of Laws Granting Undocumented Migrants Access to Driving Licenses in the United States By Gunadi, Christian
  3. Prolonged worklife among grandfathers: Spillover effects on grandchildren's educational outcomes By Jim Been; Anne C. Gielen; Marike Knoef; Gloria Moroni
  4. The Link between Health and Working Longer: Disparities in Work Capacity By Benjamin Berger; Italo Lopez Garcia; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
  5. Leaving the Labor Market Early in Sweden – Learning from International Experience By Bengtsson, Mats; König, Stefanie; Schönbeck, Simon; Wadensjö, Eskil
  6. Days of Work over a Half Century: The Rise of the Four-Day Week By Hamermesh, Daniel S.; Biddle, Jeff E.
  7. Labor force aging and the composition of regional human capital By Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
  8. The Long-Run Effects of Immigration: Evidence Across a Barrier to Refugee Settlement By Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik

  1. By: Lindo, Jason M. (Texas A&M University); Regmi, Krishna (University of Oklahoma); Swensen, Isaac D. (Montana State University)
    Abstract: We document the effect of unemployment insurance generosity on divorce and fertility using an identification strategy that leverages state-level changes in maximum benefits over time and comparisons across workers who have been laid off and those that have not been laid off. The results indicate that higher maximum benefit levels mitigate the effects of layoffs. In particular, they mitigate increases in divorce associated with men's layoffs; increases in separations associated with women's layoffs; reductions in fertility associated with men's layoffs; and increases in fertility associated with women's layoffs.
    Keywords: unemployment insurance, job loss, marriage, divorce, fertility, gender, family
    JEL: J12 J13 J16 J65 H53 I38
    Date: 2022–04
  2. By: Gunadi, Christian
    Abstract: As of 2021, 16 U.S. States and the District of Columbia have implemented laws allowing undocumented migrants to acquire a driver's license. In this paper, I hypothesize that lower barriers to work caused by the ability to obtain driving licenses can affect undocumented migrants' fertility decisions. Using a differencein- differences strategy based on temporal and geographical variation in the implementation of laws granting undocumented migrants access to driving licenses across U.S. states, I find that these laws were associated with about 9% decline in childbirth among likely undocumented married women. Exploring the mechanism, the results of the analysis indicate that granting undocumented migrants access to driving licenses increased the propensity to work along the intensive margin. Among those at work, their usual weekly hours rose by approximately 1.5%.
    Keywords: driving licenses,undocumented immigrants,fertility,labor market impacts
    JEL: J13 I38 J15 K37
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Jim Been (Leiden University); Anne C. Gielen (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Marike Knoef (Leiden University); Gloria Moroni (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: Recent policies aiming to prolong worklives have increased older males’ labor supply. Yet, little is known about their intergenerational effects. Using unique Dutch administrative data covering three consecutive generations, this paper studies the impact of increased grandfathers’ labor supply following a reform in unemployment insurance for persons aged 57.5+ on grandchildren’s educational performance. We find that increased grandfathers’ labor supply increases grandchildren’s test scores in 6th grade. The effect is driven by substitution of grandparents’ informal care by formal childcare.
    Keywords: Intergenerational effects, labor supply, unemployment insurance, child care, child development
    JEL: J13 J14 J22 J26 J65
    Date: 2022–05–28
  4. By: Benjamin Berger; Italo Lopez Garcia; Nicole Maestas; Kathleen J. Mullen
    Abstract: Good health is important for employment at older ages. However, little is known about how health-related functional abilities interact with occupational demands to shape work capacity. Using new data, we quantify individuals’ functional abilities, combine that information with occupation-specific ability requirements, and create new measures of individuals’ potential occupations and earnings. We find that average functional abilities, potential occupations, and potential earnings decline only slightly with age, indicating that many Americans maintain work capacity into their late 60s. Gaps in work capacity by race/ethnicity and gender are small, suggesting health is not a major driver of observed earnings disparities. However, gaps in work capacity by education are large and increase with age, suggesting diminished prospects for working longer among those with less education. Although work capacity among Black respondents improves across cohorts, today’s middle-aged white Americans have lower work capacity than those now at retirement age, suggesting rising rates of work disability as these cohorts age.
    JEL: J14 J15 J24
    Date: 2022–05
  5. By: Bengtsson, Mats (Swedish Social Insurance Inspectorate (ISF)); König, Stefanie (University of Gothenburg); Schönbeck, Simon (University of Gothenburg); Wadensjö, Eskil (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: It is a challenge for politics that an aging population leads to demands that the retirement age is increasing while not everyone is able to work to such a higher age. Sweden, like other countries, has several options for early exit from the labour market. However, the regulations have become more restrictive in the last decade and early retirement usually leads to a lower pension. In this article, we map options for early retirement in other countries. We have found five main types that all have both advantages and disadvantages. There are also problems with integrating them into the Swedish pension system.
    Keywords: retirement, employment, pensions, early exit
    JEL: H55 J11 J14 J21 J26
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Hamermesh, Daniel S. (University of Texas at Austin); Biddle, Jeff E. (Michigan State University)
    Abstract: We examine work patterns in the U.S. from 1973-2018, with the novel focus on days per week, using intermittent CPS samples and one ATUS sample. Among full-time workers the incidence of four-day work tripled, with 8 million additional four-day workers. Similar growth occurred in the Netherlands, Germany, and South Korea. The rise was not due to changes in demographics or industrial structure. Such schedules are more common among less educated, younger, and white non-Hispanic workers, men, natives, and people with young children; police and firefighters, health-care, and restaurant workers. Based on an equilibrium model, we show that they result more from workers’ preferences and/or daily fixed costs of working than production costs. We verify the implication that the wage penalty for four-day work is greater where such work is more prevalent, and we show that the penalty has diminished over time.
    Keywords: days/week, decomposition, labor supply, wage penalties
    JEL: J11 J22
    Date: 2022–05
  7. By: Prenzel, Paula; Iammarino, Simona
    Abstract: Human capital investments are frequently suggested as a policy measure to cope with smaller and older labor forces caused by demographic change across Europe. However, the availability and composition of human capital is fundamentally intertwined with demographic structures, especially at a regional level. This article analyzes how aging is related to the regional composition of human capital for German regions between 2000 and 2010. The findings show that labor force aging is associated with lower educational attainment and that older labor forces have higher shares of traditional vocational degrees. On a national level, education expansion still sufficiently compensates for the effects of population aging, but regional human capital composition shows distinct trends.
    Keywords: demographic change; human capital; regional development; ES/M008436/1; 1378766
    JEL: R10 R12 R23 J21 J24
    Date: 2021–03–15
  8. By: Antonio Ciccone; Jan Nimczik
    Abstract: After the end of World War II in 1945, millions of refugees arrived in what in 1949 became the Federal Republic of Germany. We examine their effect on today’s productivity, wages, income, rents, education, and population density at the municipality level. Our identification strategy is based on a spatial discontinuity in refugee settlement at the border between the French and US occupation zones in the South-West of post-war Germany. These occupation zones were established in 1945 and dissolved in 1949. The spatial discontinuity arose because the US zone admitted refugees during the 1945-1949 occupation period whereas the French zone restricted access. By 1950, refugee settlement had raised population density on the former US side of the 1945-1949 border significantly above density on the former French side. Before the war, there never had been significant differences in population density. The higher density on the former US side persists entirely in 2020 and coincides with higher rents as well as higher productivity, wages, and education levels. We examine whether today’s economic differences across the former border are the result of the difference in refugee admission; the legacy of other policy differences between the 1945-1949 occupation zones; or the consequence of socio-economic differences predating WWII. Taken together, our results indicate that today’s economic differences are the result of agglomeration effects triggered by the arrival of refugees in the former US zone. We estimate that exposure to the arrival of refugees raised income per capita by around 13% and hourly wages by around 10%.
    Keywords: Immigration, productivity, wages, refugees, long-run effects
    JEL: O4 O11 R11
    Date: 2022

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