nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒02‒28
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Fertility and Labor Market Responses to Reductions in Mortality By Sonia Bhalotra; Atheendar Venkataramani; Selma Walther
  2. Impacts of State Paid Family Leave Policies for Older Workers with Spouses or Parents in Poor Health By Braga, Breno; Butrica, Barbara A.; Mudrazija, Stipica; Peters, H.E.
  3. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies By Lanzafame, Matteo
  4. Ageing and Welfare-State Policy: Macroeconomic Perspective By Assaf Razin; Alexander Horst Schwemmer
  5. The rural exodus and the rise of Europe By Thomas BAUDIN; Robert STELTER
  6. Education and Income Gradients in Longevity: The Role of Policy By Adriana Lleras-Muney
  7. Demography and Well-being By Andrew E. Clark

  1. By: Sonia Bhalotra (University of Warwick); Atheendar Venkataramani (University of Pennsylvania); Selma Walther (University of Sussex)
    Abstract: We investigate women’s fertility, labor and marriage market responses to large declines in child mortality. We find delayed childbearing, with lower intensive and extensive margin fertility, a decline in the chances of ever having married, increased labor force participation and an improvement in occupational status. This constitutes the first evidence that improvements in child survival allow women to start fertility later and invest more in the labor market. We present a new theory of fertility that incorporates dynamic choices and reconciles our findings with existing models of behavior.
    Keywords: women’s labor force participation, fertility timing, childlessness, child mortality,medical innovation JEL Classification:J13, I18
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Braga, Breno (Urban Institute); Butrica, Barbara A. (Urban Institute); Mudrazija, Stipica (Urban Institute); Peters, H.E.
    Abstract: Since 2004 six states plus Washington, DC have implemented laws that provide paid leave benefits to workers caring for family members who have a disability or serious medical condition. Focusing on the most established state programs—California and New Jersey—this paper investigates whether paid family leave (PFL) policies facilitate greater labor supply, caregiving, and improvements in health outcomes for those likely to provide family care. Using our preferred estimation method, we find that women with a spouse in poor health are 7.4 percentage points more likely to work while providing care after the implementation of PFL compared to those not living in a PFL state. Similarly, women living within 10 miles of a parent in poor health are more likely to work while providing care (5.6 percentage points) after PFL. The implementation of state PFL also leads to improvements in mental health outcomes for these two groups of women. We fail to find strong evidence that PFL affects labor and care decisions for women living more than 10 miles from a parent in poor health. PFL also has less consistent effects on men.
    Keywords: family leave, older workers, caregiving
    JEL: I38 J14 J16
    Date: 2022–01
  3. By: Lanzafame, Matteo
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels – including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects unfavorable demographic change – in particular, population aging-on labor productivity.
    Keywords: Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2021–12–18
  4. By: Assaf Razin; Alexander Horst Schwemmer
    Abstract: It has been well recognized that population ageing could generate structural changes centered around the dwindling labor force, on one hand, and the expanding dependency on the generosity of the welfare state, on the other hand. Ageing-related welfare state policy entails both fiscal issues and migration issues. The paper employs a general-equilibrium model with a policy-making focus, to help understand the mechanism governing the provision of social benefits, labor income taxation, capital income taxation, migration curbs on low skilled and high skilled, driven by the ageing of the population. Greater generosity of the welfare state comes together with policy-- incentive compatible with the interests of the majority voters-- of a more liberal migration policy. Effects of ageing on the tax and benefit sides of the welfare state depends on the size of dependents in the population and on whether the country is a capital importer (in which case the capital tax burden is shared with foreigners) or a capital exporter (in which case the age-related wage increase skews taxation towards labor income). Low ageing evolution correlates with a relatively labor-abundant country (low retirement) turns into labor-scarce country (high retirement). Parallel to the evolution of the labor force, a capital-importer country (high rate of return) becomes capital-exporter (low rate of return). Greater ageing-related demand for social benefits is balanced against the rising cost of labor income taxation, and capital income taxation.
    JEL: F2 H2
    Date: 2022–01
  5. By: Thomas BAUDIN (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France and IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain); Robert STELTER (University of Basel, Faculty of Business and Economics and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
    Abstract: We propose a unified model of growth and internal migration and identify its deep parameters using an original set of Swedish data. We show that inter- nal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to induce an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities and the demographic transition of the country. We then compare the respective effects of shocks to internal migration costs, to infant mortality and to the productivity of rural industry to the economic take-off and demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks to internal mobility generate larger delays in the take-off of growth than do mortality shocks equivalent to the bubonic plague. These delays are dramatic when rural industry is less productive in the early phase of industrialization. The economic and demographic dynamics of Sweden were very similar to those of the rest of Europe at the time of industrialization, which allows us to generalize our findings
    Keywords: : Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortal- ity differentials, Fertility differentials
    JEL: J11 J13 O41
    Date: 2022–02
  6. By: Adriana Lleras-Muney
    Abstract: Education and income are strong predictors of health and longevity. In the last 20 years many efforts have been made to understand if these relationships are causal and what the possible role of policy should be as a result. The evidence from various studies is ambiguous: the effects of education and income policies on health are heterogeneous and vary over time, and across places and populations. I discuss explanations for these disparate results and suggest directions for future research.
    JEL: I1 I18 I26 I38 J10
    Date: 2022–01
  7. By: Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Demography studies the characteristics of populations. One such characteristic is well-being: this was the subject of the 2019 Wittgenstein Conference. Here, I discuss how objective well-being domains can be summarised to produce an overall well-being score, and how taking self-reported (subjective) well-being into account may help in this effort. But given that there is more than one type of subjective well-being score, we would want to know which one is "best". We would also need to decide whose well-being counts, or counts more than that of others. Finally, I briefly mention the potential role of adaptation and social comparisons in the calculation of societal well-being.
    Keywords: Subjective well-being,Demography,Measurement,Policy
    Date: 2021

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