nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2022‒02‒07
four papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. The Fertility Response to Cutting Child Related Welfare Benefits By Sandner, Malte; Wiynck, Frederik
  2. The Differential Impacts of Contingent Employment on Fertility: Evidence from Australia By Mark Wooden; Trong-Anh Trinh; Irma Mooi-Reci
  3. Demography, growth and robots in advanced and emerging economies By Matteo Lanzafame
  4. Lucky Women in Unlucky Cohorts: Gender Differences in the Effects of Initial Labor Market Conditions in Latin America By Inés Berniell; Leonardo Gasparini; Mariana Marchionni; Mariana Viollaz

  1. By: Sandner, Malte (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wiynck, Frederik (IAB)
    Abstract: "Despite long-term interest whether welfare benefits motivate fertility, evidence from research has not been consistent. This paper contributes new evidence to this debate by investigating the fertility effect of a German welfare reform. The reform decreased the household income of families on welfare by 18 percent in the first year after the birth of a baby. Using exclusive German social security data on over 460,000 affected women, our analysis finds the reform leads to a fertility reduction of 6.8 percent. This result implies that for mothers on welfare, fertility has an income elasticity of 0.38, which is much smaller than that of general populations reported in the literature. Our findings suggest that welfare recipients’ fertility reacts less strongly to financial incentives than the fertility of overall populations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Stichprobe der Integrierten Grundsicherungsbiografien (SIG) ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    JEL: I38 J13 C54
    Date: 2022–01–19
  2. By: Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Trong-Anh Trinh (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, the University of Melbourne); Irma Mooi-Reci (School of Social and Political Sciences, the University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: Many studies have reported evidence of negative associations between fixed-term contract employment and fertility. With few exceptions, these studies assume that employment status is exogenous and thus results are likely biased. Furthermore, previous research has mostly not considered whether the effects of employment status on fertility might vary with other worker characteristics. We draw on 19 years of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to investigate the association between contingent forms of employment (including both fixed-term and casual employment) and first births, and how that association varies with selected worker characteristics. The issue of endogeneity is addressed through the use of instrumental variables estimation. Our main finding is that both fixed-term contracts and casual employment are associated with a significantly lower probability of first births among men. We also find that these negative fertility effects vary with workers’ education, occupational status, country of origin, age, and relationship status. The results for women suggest fixed-term contracts are actually associated with more births. However, in this case one of the instruments fails to satisfy the exclusion restriction, suggesting endogeneity remains a concern when analyzing female fertility outcomes and hence this finding should be given little weight.
    Keywords: Australia; Contingent employment; Employment instability; Fertility; Instrumental variables
    JEL: J13 J21 J41
    Date: 2021–11
  3. By: Matteo Lanzafame (Asian Development Bank)
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of demographic change on labor productivity growth, relying on annual data over 1961-2018 for a panel f 90 advanced and emerging economies. We find that increases in both the young and old population shares have significantly negative effects on labor productivity growth, working via various channels – including physical and human capital accumulation. Splitting the analysis for advanced and emerging economies shows that population ageing has a greater effect on emerging economies than on advanced economies. Extending the benchmark model to include a proxy for the robotization of production, we find evidence indicating that automation reduces the negative effects unfavorable demographic change – in particular, population aging-on labor productivity.
    Keywords: Demographic Change, Labor Productivity, Robots
    JEL: C33 J11 O40
    Date: 2021–12
  4. By: Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Mariana Marchionni (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Mariana Viollaz (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and IZA)
    Abstract: This paper assesses gender differences in the effects of adverse conditions at labormarket entry in a developing region. Using harmonized microdata from national household surveys for 15 Latin American countries, we build a synthetic panel of cohorts that potentially transition from school to work and observe their labor market outcomes 10 years later. We find that men who faced higher unemployment rates at ages 18-20 suffer a negative effect on employment at ages 27-30. In contrast, women from those same unlucky cohorts have higher employment rates and earnings. Our results are consistent with women acting as secondary workers in downturns. We also find that women from unlucky cohorts control a larger share of family income and are more likely to be the head of household 10 years after labor market entry, and that adverse initial labor market conditions are correlated to more egalitarian perceptions about gender roles later in life.
    JEL: J16 J21 J22 J31
    Date: 2022–02

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