nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2021‒12‒06
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Fertility, Family Policy, and Labor Supply: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from France By Elmallakh, Nelly
  2. Measuring the Child Penalty Early in a Career: The Case of Young Adults in France By Bazen, Stephen; Joutard, Xavier; Périvier, Hélène
  3. When is a life worth living? A dynastic efficiency criterion for fertility By Pierre-Edouard Collignon
  4. The Evolving Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Gender Inequality in the U.S. Labor Market: The COVID Motherhood Penalty By Couch, Kenneth A.; Fairlie, Robert W.; Xu, Huanan
  5. The long-run impact of historical shocks on the decision to migrate: Evidence from the Irish Migration By Gaia Narciso; Battista Severgnini; Gayane Vardanyan
  6. The Long-Term Effects of Forced Migration: An Early-Life Approach with Evidence from Yugoslavian Refugees in Sweden By Serratos-Sotelo, Luis

  1. By: Elmallakh, Nelly
    Abstract: This paper examines fertility and labor supply responses to a French policy reform that consisted in conditioning the amount of child allowances on household income. Relying on Regression Discontinuity Design and administrative income data, the paper finds that restricting family allowance eligibility criteria decreases fertility. The results also highlight that receiving half the amount of the allowances or not receiving any leads to an increase in both male and female labor supply. Auxiliary regressions show that at least part of the decline in fertility is due to timing effects, as the fertility impact declines as women's age increases.
    Keywords: family policy,child allowances,fertility,labor supply,France
    JEL: H53 J21 J22
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Bazen, Stephen (Aix-Marseille University); Joutard, Xavier (Aix-Marseille University); Périvier, Hélène
    Abstract: There is a large literature on the existence of a child penalty for mothers after the birth of a child. There is little discernible effect on fathers' labour incomes, although some studies find that there is a premium. We measure the penalty due to the birth of a first child for both parents for cohorts of young adults after leaving the educational system. Using an event study approach, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the child penalty in France not only in terms of monthly earnings, but also the employment rate, working hours, hourly earnings, and other outcomes. Using on a rich dataset, we estimate child penalty by educational level and for different cohorts. We find evidence of a significant child penalty for mothers: 23% in monthly earnings overall, rising to 35% for those with secondary education only. For the 2010 cohort, we observe the same level of absolute child penalties for mothers, whereas the relative penalty has narrowed. This is due to a decrease in monthly earnings, and more precisely in employment rate of fathers before and after the birth of the child in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis.
    Keywords: child penalty, young adults, event study
    JEL: J08 J16 J13
    Date: 2021–10
  3. By: Pierre-Edouard Collignon (CREST-Ecolepolytechnique, France)
    Abstract: This paper extends the Pareto efficiency to setups with endogenous fertility. Adding an extra child will be a social improvement if her life is worth living. For any criterion for lives worth living, an allocation is efficient when it is Pareto efficient (i.e. with a fixed population) and when no one with a life (not) worth living can be added (removed) without reducing someone’s well-being. I also define the ALW(All LivesWorth Living) equity criterion which requires that all agents have lives worth living. The first welfare theorem stands and I connect with results in the literature (e.g. Golosov, Jones, and Tertilt (2007)). Furthermore, I show that binding constraints on bequests are not necessarily inefficient. Criteria for lives worth living necessarily convey value judgements. As a benchmark, I propose a Dynastic criterion relying solely on parents’ revealed preferences: a child’s life is worth living when, ceteris paribus, her altruistic parent is better off with her being born. Then, setting constraints on bequests exactly such that parents may be paid back for the raising costs implies that the equilibrium is efficient and that all children have lives worth living. Finally, putting these concepts at work, I explore real world policy implications. I show that 1) direct population control (e.g. China’s one-child policy) may be efficient and 2) with external effects to childbearing, Pigouvian taxes restore efficiency.
    Keywords: Pareto efficiency, fertility, altruism, bequests
    JEL: D61 H21 J13
    Date: 2021–10–27
  4. By: Couch, Kenneth A. (University of Connecticut); Fairlie, Robert W. (University of California, Santa Cruz); Xu, Huanan (Indiana University)
    Abstract: We explore whether COVID-19 disproportionately affected women in the labor market using CPS data through the end of 2020. We find that male-female gaps in the employment-to-population ratio and hours worked for women with school-age children have widened but not for those with younger children. Triple-difference estimates are consistent with most of the reductions observed for women with school-age children being attributable to additional child care responsibilities (the "COVID motherhood penalty"). Conducting decompositions, we find women had a greater likelihood to telework, higher education levels and a less-impacted occupational distribution, which all contributed to lessening negative impacts relative to men.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Coronavirus, pandemic, female labor supply, gender inequality, child care, motherhood penalty
    JEL: J16 J2 J13
    Date: 2021–11
  5. By: Gaia Narciso (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Battista Severgnini (Copenhagen Business School); Gayane Vardanyan (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin)
    Abstract: What is the long-run impact of large negative historical events on the individual decision to migrate? We investigate this research question by looking at the effect of the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850) on the long-run individual decision to migrate to the US during the Age of the Mass Migration. We construct a unique dataset based on two early 20th century Irish Censuses and the Ellis Island Administrative Records. This allows us to test whether the Great Irish Famine, one of the most lethal episodes of mass starvation in history, had a long-run impact on individuals’ migration decisions. Controlling for individual and geographical characteristics, we find that the Irish Famine was a significant long-run driver of individuals’ migration choices.
    Keywords: mass migration, negative shock, long-run impact, Great Famine.
    JEL: F22 N33 N93
    Date: 2020–01
  6. By: Serratos-Sotelo, Luis (Department of Economic History, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of being exposed to forced migration during childhood (ages 0-5) on educational achievement at age 15 (grade 9). Using register data from the Swedish Interdisciplinary Panel, I identify children who migrated to Sweden as a consequence of the rising conflict during the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, and follow them until age 15, when they received their grades at the end of the 9 years of compulsory education in Sweden. The results show that those who experienced forced migration performed worse in school, as measured by Math and Swedish grades and Merit Rating scores, with forced migrants achieving grades that were on average 5 (Merit Rating), 7 (Swedish), and 22 (Math) percentage points of a standard deviation lower than those of native Swedes. Forced migrants outperformed Swedes only in English, obtaining grades that were on average 12 percentage points of a standard deviation higher than did their native-born counterparts.
    Keywords: forced migration; refugees; education; early-life; Sweden
    JEL: I24 J13 J15 N34
    Date: 2021–10–13

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