nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2021‒11‒15
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Regional variation in women’s education-fertility nexus in Northern and Western Europe By Jonas Wood; Leen Marynissen; Jessica Nisén; Peter Fallesen; Karel Neels; Alessandra Trimarchi; Lars Dommermuth; Ruben Van Gaalen; Martin Kolk; Pekka Martikainen
  2. Robots, Marriageable Men, Family, and Fertility By Massimo Anelli; Osea Giuntella; Luca Stella
  3. Save, Spend or Give? A Model of Housing, Family Insurance, and Savings in Old Age By Fahle, Sean; Barczyk, Daniel; Kredler, Matthias
  4. Labour Market Adjustments to Population Decline By Hellwagner, Timon; Weber, Enzo
  5. Understanding inequality within households By Almås, Ingvild; Ringdal, Charlotte; Hoem Sjursen, Ingrid
  6. A Class of Acceptable and Practical Social Welfare Orderings with Variable Population: Stepwise Social Welfare Orderings and Their Applications By Sakamoto, Norihito; Mori, Yuko

  1. By: Jonas Wood; Leen Marynissen; Jessica Nisén (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Peter Fallesen; Karel Neels; Alessandra Trimarchi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Lars Dommermuth; Ruben Van Gaalen; Martin Kolk (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Pekka Martikainen (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The relationship between female education and fertility is a long-standing topic in demography, our understanding of which continues to develop. Since the turn of the century, a growing body of research has documented cross-national variation in the female educational gradient in fertility, with mostly positive gradients in Western and Northern European countries. However, such national gradients may mask important variation in the educational gradient in fertility at the subnational level. This study is among the first to use large-scale individual-level administrative data to study regional educational gradients in parity-specific fertility in Northern and Western European countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Adopting hazard models and model-based Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios, our results highlight considerable subnational regional variation in the educational gradient in first, second and third births. We conclude that, in addition to variation between countries, substantial within-country regional variation deserves to receive future scholarly attention. The documentation of regional variation in the female education-fertility nexus is a substantial extension of cross-national comparisons and contributes to the empirical and theoretical debate on the context-contingencies of the education-fertility nexus.
    Keywords: Europe, education, fertility, population registers, regional demography
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Massimo Anelli; Osea Giuntella; Luca Stella
    Abstract: Robots have radically changed the demand for skills and the role of workers in production. This phenomenon has replaced routine and mostly physical work of blue collar workers, but it has also created positive employment spillovers in other occupations and sectors that require more social interaction and managing skills. This study examines how the exposure to robots and its heterogeneous effects on the labor market opportunities of men and women affected demographic behavior. We focus on the United States and find that in regions that were more exposed to robots, gender gaps in income and labor force participation declined, reducing the relative economic stature of men. Regions affected by intense robot penetration experienced also an increase in both divorce and cohabitation and a decline –albeit non-significant– in the number of marriages. While there was no change in the overall fertility rate, marital fertility declined, and there was an increase in nonmarital births. Our findings provide support to the hypothesis that changes in labor market structures that affect the absolute and relative prospects of men may reduce their marriage-market value and affect marital and fertility behavior.
    Keywords: automation, marriage market, divorce, cohabitation, fertility, gender
    JEL: J12 J13 J21 J23 J24
    Date: 2021
  3. By: Fahle, Sean; Barczyk, Daniel; Kredler, Matthias
    JEL: D1
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Hellwagner, Timon; Weber, Enzo
    JEL: J11
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Almås, Ingvild; Ringdal, Charlotte; Hoem Sjursen, Ingrid
    Abstract: To describe and understand the economic inequality in a given so- ciety, it is necessary to understand intra-household inequality. House- holds can hide important inequalities, but can also be essential units for redistribution in society. This paper gives an overview of within- household distributions in different settings, both between the adults and also between adults and children. It documents that there are sub- stantial inequalities within households in some contexts and that these often, but not always, disfavor women and children. The paper also discusses the importance of intra-household allocations for poverty and inequality measurement. Methods that assign each household member a per-adult share of household consumption leads to underestimation of inequalities and miss-classification of poverty. In comparison, struc- tural models seem to do better in predicting individual poverty when disaggregated data on allocation within households are not available. Main determinants of power in household decision-making are also discussed, and relatedly, so are two important policy questions: Are targeted transfers to women good for female empowerment? And, are targeted transfers to mothers good for child outcomes? The empirical evidence is clearly pointing to targeting being beneficial for female empowerment, but the evidence is less clear when it comes to child outcomes.
    Keywords: Within-household resource allocation,inequality,measurement
    JEL: D13 D63 J13
    Date: 2021
  6. By: Sakamoto, Norihito; Mori, Yuko
    Abstract: This study proposes a new class of social welfare orderings, a stepwise rank-dependent social welfare ordering, which naturally generalizes a rank-dependent utilitarianism in the setting of social choice with variable population size. In fact, a stepwise social welfare ordering is simply designed to have the same value for each proportion of the population, with the obvious advantage that allows functional form to be freely chosen for assessing well-being inequality. We show that a stepwise rank-dependent social welfare ordering is easily characterized by standard axioms: strong Pareto, anonymity, Pigou-Dalton transfer equity, continuity, rank-separability, and consistency for population replication. If additional requirements on standard invariance are imposed on it, its functional form is specified as a well-known rank-weighted social welfare ordering. As some practical applications to measure social welfare, we propose three simple methods such as a quantile mean comparison method, which evaluates social welfare by comparing each quantile’s average income in an approximate lexicographic ordering or quantile-dependent weighted summation. These applications have obvious advantages in that they can see the whole picture of income distributions compared with standard tools such as the traditional GDP per capita, median, range, and top/bottom ratios. Furthermore, we show a representation theorem that generalizes stepwise social welfare orderings for the problem of optimal population size.
    Keywords: Stepwise Social Welfare Orderings, Quantile Mean Comparison, Interval Population-Ratio Comparison, Interval Weighted Mean Comparison
    JEL: D63 D71 H43 I31 I32 J18 Q56
    Date: 2021–10

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