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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Daniel Ciganda (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Angelo Lorenti (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Lars Dommermuth |
| Abstract: | Fertility levels have historically been negatively correlated with the amount of information and material resources available to individuals and families. The recent reversal of this trend has been interpreted as a fundamental change in preferences, a return to large families led by more educated individuals. Our analysis shows, however, that the recently documented changes in fertility can be reproduced in the context of declining family size preferences across educational levels, and without assuming any transformation of the underlying behavioral mechanisms that link resources and fertility across cohorts. We demonstrate this point by replicating the stylized facts reported in previous studies using a simulated dataset. We generate this dataset from a model that assumes continuity in the way education shapes reproductive intentions over time. In our simulated population, the reversal in the relationship between education and fertility emerges as a result of the transition from a natural to a regulated fertility regime, as the share of unplanned births decreases over time, and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with \textit{desired} fertility become dominant. We conclude, thus, that the explanation for the weakening educational gradient of fertility lies primarily in the decline of unintended fertility, instead of in changes in fertility preferences. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2021-016&r= |
| By: | Michael Peters |
| Abstract: | Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War about 8m ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties I show that the settlement of refugees had a large and persistent effect on the size of the local population, manufacturing employment and income per capita. I show that these findings are quantitatively consistent with an idea-based model of spatial growth if population mobility is subject to frictions and productivity spillovers occur locally. The model implies that the refugee settlement increased aggregate income per capita by about 12% after 25 years and that the historical settlement rule triggered persistent industrialization of rural areas. |
| JEL: | O11 O4 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29329&r= |
| By: | Andreas Kammerlander; Günther G. Schulze |
| Abstract: | We show, for the first time, a causal effect of local economic growth on infant mortality. We use geo-referenced data for non-migrating mothers from 46 developing countries and 128 DHS survey rounds and combine it with nighttime luminosity data at a granular level. Using mother fixed effects we show that an increase in local economic activity significantly reduces the probability that the same mother loses a further child before its first birthday. |
| Keywords: | local economic growth, child mortality, nighttime lights |
| JEL: | I15 O18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9315&r= |