nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2021‒05‒31
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Flexible empirical Bayes estimation of local fertility schedules. reducing small area problems and preserving regional variation By Stefan Leknes; Sturla A. Løkken
  2. Life-cycle inequality: Blacks and whites differentials in life expectancy, savings, income, and consumption By De Giorgi, Giacomo; Gambetti, Luca; Naguib, Costanza
  3. Gender wage and longevity gaps and the design of retirement systems By Barigozzi, Francesca; Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie
  4. Birth Collapse and Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptive Policies By Rodrigo Ceni; Cecilia Parada; Ivone Perazzo; Eliana Sena
  5. Family composition and transitions into long-term care services among the elderly By Astri Syse; Alyona Artamonova; Michael Thomas; Marijke Veenstra
  6. Short Lives. The impact of parental death on early life mortality and height in the Netherlands 1850-1940 By Quanjer, Björn; van Dijk, Ingrid K; Rosenbaum-Feldbrugge, Matthias

  1. By: Stefan Leknes; Sturla A. Løkken (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Reliable local demographic schedules are in high demand, but small area problems pose a challenge to estimation. The literature has directed little attention to the opportunities created by increased availability of high-quality geo-coded data. We propose the use of empirical Bayes methods based on a model with three hierarchical geographic levels to predict small area fertility schedules. The proposed model has a flexible specification with respect to age, which allows for detailed age heterogeneity in local fertility patterns. The model limits sampling variability in small areas, captures regional variations effectively, is robust to certain types of model misspecification, and outperforms alternative models in terms of prediction accuracy. The beneficial properties of the model are demonstrated through simulations and estimations on full-count Norwegian population data.
    Keywords: small area estimation; hierarchical linear models; empirical Bayes method; shrinkage; age-specific fertility
    JEL: J13 R58 C13 C18
    Date: 2021–04
  2. By: De Giorgi, Giacomo; Gambetti, Luca; Naguib, Costanza
    Abstract: Life expectancy for Blacks is about 8 year shorter than for Whites. A shorter life expectancy, in line with the theoretical prediction of a simple model, determines a much lower amount of savings and wealth accumulation and therefore a lower degree of insurance. This, in turn, contributes to persistent racial differentials in life-cycle consumption. Starting from the same position in the consumption distribution Blacks end up in a lower percentile than Whites after a few decades. This is particularly marked for those Blacks who start at the top of the consumption distribution, where Whites are much more persistent. We document these facts using 40 years of PSID data (1981-2017).
    Keywords: Consumption; health; Income; inequality; Persistence
    JEL: C3 D12 E21 E63
    Date: 2020–08
  3. By: Barigozzi, Francesca; Cremer, Helmuth; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie
    Abstract: We study the design of pension benets for male and female workers. Women live longer than men but have a lower wage. Individuals can be single or live in couples who pool their incomes. Social welfare is utilitarian but an increasing concave transforma- tion of individualslifetime utilities introduces the concern for redistribution between individuals with di¤erent life-spans. We derive the optimal direction of redistribution and show how it is a¤ected by a gender neutrality rule. With singles only, a simple utilitarian solution implies re- distribution from males to females. When the transformation is su¢ ciently concave redistribution may or may not be reversed. With couples only, the ranking of gender retirement ages is always reversed when the transformation is su¢ ciently concave. Under gender neutrality pension schemes must be self-selecting. With singles only this implies distortions of retirement decision and restricts redistribution across genders. With couples, a rst best that implies a lower retirement age for females can be im- plemented by a gender-neutral system. Otherwise, gender neutrality implies equal re- tirement ages and restricts the possibility to compensate the shorter-lived individuals. Calibrated simulations show that when singles and couples coexist, gender neutrality substantially limits redistribution in favor of single women and fully prevents redistri- bution in favor of male spouses.
    Keywords: Gender wage gap; gender gap in longevity; retirement systems
    JEL: H55 H31 H21
    Date: 2021–04
  4. By: Rodrigo Ceni (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Cecilia Parada (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Ivone Perazzo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Eliana Sena (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: We estimate the quantitative impact of a long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARCs) policy on the unexpected recent collapse of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Uruguay. We exploit, first, the expansion schedule of a large-scale policy of access to sub-dermal implants in public hospitals across the country, through an event study to capture causal effects, and second, detailed birth administrative records for the last 20 years. We document an average reduction of 3% in the birth rate in public hospitals across the two years after the policy was implemented. These effects were concentrated among teens, with a decrease of 5.5%, and this decrease affects mainly the first birth. In the context of a reduction of 20% in births in three years, the use of implants can explain one-third of the reduction in births in public hospitals. We also document a more significant effect on first births and no effect on pregnancy outcomes such as childbirth weight or weeks of gestation.
    Keywords: Long-acting reversible contraceptive, Fertility, Adolescent fertility, Public policy, Birth collapse
    JEL: H42 H75 I12 J13
    Date: 2020–08
  5. By: Astri Syse (Statistics Norway); Alyona Artamonova; Michael Thomas (Statistics Norway); Marijke Veenstra
    Abstract: Elderly’s use of long-term care (LTC) services are likely to be influenced by family members, but there is scarce research on the role played by partners and/or adult children, especially taking geographic proximity into account. We thus examine how partners and adult children influence elderly’s LTC use, taking regional differences into account. We employ logistic discrete-time hazard regression models on linked registry data for complete cohorts of elderly individuals (65+ years), their partners, their adult children, residing in Norway in the period 2010-2016 (N=820 000). We also include municipal characteristics. One’s own, partner’s and child(ren)’s characteristics are all associated with elderly individuals’ LTC use. Partners’ resources matter the most, but those of adult children are relevant when partners are less resourceful or absent. Childless elderly use more LTC services than elderly with children, and elderly with resourceful children living nearby use the least LTC services. The trends are similar across municipalities, but the magnitudes vary slightly depending on their geographic location and sociodemographic and economic resources. Future demographic and economic changes warrant a better understanding of the role played by family members for elderly’s use of LTC services.
    Keywords: Care use, Family, Formal care, Geographic, Informal care, Long-term care (LTC)
    JEL: I10 I12 I18 J10 H41
    Date: 2021–05
  6. By: Quanjer, Björn; van Dijk, Ingrid K; Rosenbaum-Feldbrugge, Matthias (Federal Institute for Population Research)
    Abstract: We investigate how parental death in infancy, childhood and adolescence affects boys’ health using two distinct measures: mortality before age 20 and height in young adulthood. These indicators enable us to identify critical age periods at which parental loss was most harmful for health, and to gain more insights into the mechanisms at play. Employing nationally representative data for the Netherlands for the period 1850-1940, we analyze survival of roughly 18,000 boys using Cox proportional hazard models, and stature of more than 4,000 young men using linear regression models. Results reveal that experiencing parental death in general and maternal death in particular during infancy and in early childhood is strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Among children aged 5-20, however, only paternal death is associated with increased mortality. Young adult height, in contrast, is most strongly affected by parental death taking place between the ages five and 12. While maternal death in this age group is associated with shorter height, paternal death is associated with taller stature among surviving children. Our results demonstrate that both indicators of health complement each other, and suggest that the loss of resources and care traditionally provided by mothers was particularly harmful for child well-being.
    Date: 2021–05–17

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