nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2021‒04‒19
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. College as a Marriage Market By Kirkeboen, Lars; Leuven, Edwin; Mogstad, Magne
  2. Mating Markets By Pierre-André Chiappori; Bernard Salanié
  3. Counterfactual Dissimilarity: Can Changes in Demographics and Income Explain Increased Racial Integration in U.S. Cities? By Paul Carrillo; Jonathan Rothbaum
  4. The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections By Rebecca F. Gleditsch; Adrian F. Rogne; Astri Syse; Michael Thomas
  5. Fear and Loathing in Times of Distress Causal Impact of Social and Economic Insecurity on Anti-Immigration Sentiment By Gianmarco Daniele; Andrea F.M. Martinangeli; Francesco Passarelli; Willem Sas; Lisa Windsteiger

  1. By: Kirkeboen, Lars (University of Oslo); Leuven, Edwin (University of Oslo); Mogstad, Magne (University of Chicago)
    Abstract: Recent descriptive work suggests the type of college education (field or institution) is an important but neglected pathway through which individuals sort into homogeneous marriages. These descriptive studies raise the question of why college graduates are so likely to marry someone within their own institution or field of study. One possible explanation is that individuals match on traits correlated with the choice of education, such as innate ability, tastes or family environment. Another possible explanation is that the choice of college education causally impacts whether and whom one marries, either because of search frictions or preferences for spousal education. The goal of this paper is to sort out these explanations and, by doing so, examine the role of colleges as marriage markets. Using data from Norway to address key identification and measurement challenges, we find that colleges are local marriage markets, mattering greatly for whom one marries, not because of the pre-determined traits of the admitted students but as a direct result of attending a particular institution at a given time.
    Keywords: assortative mating, college, educational homogamy, field of study, marriage market, search frictions
    JEL: D13 I23 I24 J12
    Date: 2021–04
  2. By: Pierre-André Chiappori (Columbia University); Bernard Salanié (Columbia University)
    Abstract: The economic analysis of the "market for marriage" has a long tradition. Two more recent developments have made it the focus of renewed interest: new models of household behavior, and a class of tractable specifications for econometric work. These two threads have converged to generate richer predictions and empirical applications. The aim of the current survey is to provide an overview of recent advances in the theory of matching markets.
    Keywords: household behavior, utility transfer, bipartite matching
    JEL: J12 D13
    Date: 2021–04
  3. By: Paul Carrillo (George Washington University); Jonathan Rothbaum (U.S. Census Bureau)
    Abstract: Urban areas in the U.S. have experienced important changes in racial/ethnic distributions over the last two decades. In the average urban area today black-white racial integration has increased by 10.6 percent between 1990 and 2010. Changes in racial and ethnic distributions and gentrification are often associated with changes in residents’ demographic characteristics, such as income, education and age. This paper applies a non-parametric spatial decomposition technique using complete (restricted-use) microdata files from the 1990 Decennial Long Form Census and 2008-2012 American Community Surveys to assess what portion of the changes in racial distributions can be attributed to changes in individual characteristics. We find that that, on average, a little over a third of the observed increase in integration can be accounted for by changes in observed individual characteristics.
    Keywords: Counterfactual Distribution; Decomposition; Spatial Econometrics
    JEL: C14 R23 R30
    Date: 2021–11
  4. By: Rebecca F. Gleditsch; Adrian F. Rogne; Astri Syse; Michael Thomas (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Statistics Norway projects the population by age, sex and immigrant background at the national level. This paper examines the accuracy of the Norwegian population projections produced between 1996 and 2018. We assess deviations between projected and registered numbers, both for the total population and for several key components, such as age structure, total fertility rate and number of births, period life expectancy at birth and number of deaths, as well as net international migration. While fertility proved to be the most difficult component to project during the post-war period, net international migration has been the main source of inaccuracy in the national population projections produced since 1996. The projections produced in 1996, 1999, 2002 and 2005 underestimated longterm population growth due to the unforseen increase in immigration following EU expansion in 2004. Subsequent projections have not, however, produced a consistent under- or overprojection of net migration, and the deviations between the projected and registered total populations have been moderate. Overall, the projections for life expectancy at birth have proven to be consistently lower than the real development in life expectancy in Norway, at least until very recently. Fertility, on the other hand, has continued to be overprojected since observed fertility started to decline in 2009. Nevertheless, the deviations between projected and realised trends in births and deaths have been small compared to the observed deviations for net international migration.
    Keywords: Accuracy; Errors; Fertility; Methods; Migration; Mortality; Population Projections
    JEL: C53 J11
    Date: 2021–03
  5. By: Gianmarco Daniele; Andrea F.M. Martinangeli; Francesco Passarelli; Willem Sas; Lisa Windsteiger
    Abstract: The causal nexus between socio-economic stressors and anti-immigration sentiments remains unclear despite increasing evidence over their correlation. We exploit the social and economic disruptions brought about by the epidemic outbreak in March 2020 to randomly provide survey respondents with, at the time of the survey, pessimistic information about the economic and health consequences of the epidemic. Both economic and social stressors causally induce upsurges in anti-immigration sentiment and demand for ï¬ scal pressure retrenchment. However, radicalised attitudes are accompanied by political radicalisation only when the negative economic consequences of the epidemic are highlighted.
    Keywords: economic crisis, social crisis, immigration, survey experiment, radical political preferences
    JEL: D72 H51 H53 H55 O52 P52
    Date: 2020–12

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