nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2021‒02‒01
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Moms’ Time—Married or Not By Daniel S. Hamermesh
  2. Biased Beliefs and Entry into Scientific Careers By Ina Ganguli; Patrick Gaule; Danijela Vuletic Cugalj
  3. Impacts of the Covid-19 Pandemic and the CARES Act on Earnings and Inequality By Guido Matias Cortes; Eliza C. Forsythe
  4. Demographic change and the German current account surplus By Schön, Matthias
  5. Monetary Policy Response to a Migration Shock: An Analysis for a Small Open Economy By Franz Hamann; Cesar Anzola; Oscar Avila-Montealegre; Juan Carlos Castro-Fernandez; Anderson Grajales-Olarte; Alexander Guarín; Juan C Mendez-Vizcaino; Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro; Mario A. Ramos-Veloza

  1. By: Daniel S. Hamermesh
    Abstract: Using time-diary data from the U.S. and six wealthy European countries, I demonstrate that non-partnered mothers spend slightly less time performing childcare, but much less time in other household activities than partnered mothers. Unpartnered mothers’ total work time—paid work and household production—is slightly less than partnered women’s. In the U.S. but not elsewhere they watch more television and engage in fewer other leisure activities. These differences are independent of any differences in age, race/ethnicity, ages and numbers of children, and household incomes. Non-partnered mothers feel slightly more pressured for time and much less satisfied with their lives. Analyses using the NLSY79 show that mothers whose partners left the home in the past two years became more depressed than those whose marriages remained intact. Coupled with evidence that husbands spend substantial time in childcare and with their children, the results suggest that children of non-partnered mothers receive much less parental care—perhaps 40 percent less—than other children; and most of what they receive is from mothers who are less satisfied with their lives.
    JEL: I31 J12 J22
    Date: 2021–01
  2. By: Ina Ganguli (University of Massachusetts - Amherst); Patrick Gaule (University of Bath); Danijela Vuletic Cugalj (CERGE-EI)
    Abstract: We investigate whether excessively optimistic beliefs play a role in the persistent demand for doctoral and postdoctoral training in science. We elicit the beliefs and career preferences of doctoral students through a novel survey and randomize the provision of structured information on the true state of the academic market and information through role models on nonacademic careers. One year later, both treatments lead students to update their beliefs about the academic market and impact career preferences. However, we do not find an effect on actual career outcomes two years postintervention.
    Keywords: higher education, information, biased beliefs, career preferences, science
    JEL: I23 D80 D84 J24
    Date: 2020–09
  3. By: Guido Matias Cortes (York University); Eliza C. Forsythe (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
    Abstract: Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we show that the Covid-19 pandemic led to a loss of aggregate real labor earnings of more than $250 billion between March and July 2020. By exploiting the panel structure of the CPS, we show that the decline in aggregate earnings was entirely driven by declines in employment; individuals who remained employed did not experience any atypical earnings changes. We find that job losses were substantially larger among workers in low-paying jobs. This led to a dramatic increase in inequality in labor earnings during the pandemic. Simulating standard unemployment benefits and Unemployment Insurance (UI) provisions in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, we estimate that UI payments exceeded total pandemic earnings losses between March and July 2020 by $9 billion. Workers who were previously in the bottom third of the earnings distribution received 49% of the pandemic-associated UI and CARES benefits, reversing the increases in labor earnings inequality. These lower-income individuals are likely to have a high fiscal multiplier, suggesting these extra payments may have helped stimulate aggregate demand.
    Keywords: Covid-19, employment, earnings replacement, unemployment insurance CARES Act, distributional impacts
    JEL: H31 I38 J31 J38 J65
    Date: 2020–09
  4. By: Schön, Matthias
    Abstract: This paper shows that demographic change plays an important role in the formation of a country's net foreign asset position. An ageing population both lowers the demand and increases the supply of capital in an economy. Fewer workers reduce the required capital stock. As a longer life span leads to a longer retirement phase individuals save more. Simultaneously, necessary adjustments of pay-as-you-go pension systems to an ageing society affect aggregate savings. Taking Germany as an example, this paper applies a two-region model with endogenous savings and labour supply that is augmented with demographic data projections for OECD countries. It shows that demographic change in Germany is an important determinant of the current account. Counterfactual pension reform simulations show that a fixed pension level increases the current account while a fixed pension contribution rate lowers it. An increase in the retirement age results in a strong negative effect on the current account as it reduces the capital supply and increases the capital demand in an economy.
    Keywords: Demographic Change,Current Account,Pension System
    JEL: E27 E62 F21 H55 J11
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Franz Hamann; Cesar Anzola; Oscar Avila-Montealegre; Juan Carlos Castro-Fernandez; Anderson Grajales-Olarte; Alexander Guarín; Juan C Mendez-Vizcaino; Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro; Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
    Abstract: We develop a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and fragmented labor markets to study the response of the monetary policy to a migration shock. Migrants are characterized by their productivity levels, their restrictions to accumulate capital, as well as by the fl exibility of their labor income. Our results show that the monetary policy response depends on the characteristics of migrants and the local labor market. An infl ow of low(high)-productivity workers reduces(increases) marginal costs, lowers(raises) infl ation expectations and pushes the Central Bank to reduce(increase) the interest rate. The model is calibrated to the Colombian economy and used to analyze a migratory in flow of financially constraint workers from Venezuela into a sector with flexible and low wages. **** RESUMEN: En este artículo analizamos la respuesta de política monetaria ante un choque migratorio, mediante el desarrollo de modelo de economía pequeña y abierta con mercados de trabajo fragmentados. Los migrantes se caracterizan por sus bajos niveles de productividad, restricciones de acumulación de capital y la mayor flexibilidad de su ingreso laboral. Los resultados evidencian que la respuesta de política monetaria depende de las características de los migrantes y del mercado laboral. Una entrada de trabajadores de baja(alta) productividad reduce(aumenta) los costos marginales, disminuye(incrementa) las expectativas de in flación y lleva al Banco Central a reducir(aumentar) la tasa de interés. El modelo se calibra para la economía colombiana y se usa para analizar un in flujo migratorio de trabajadores venezolanos en un sector de salarios bajos y flexibles.
    Keywords: Neoclassical Model, Wage Differentials, Informal Labor Markets, Migration, Monetary Policymodelo, neoclásico, diferenciales salariales, mercados informales de trabajo, migración, política monetaria
    JEL: E13 J31 J46 J61 E50
    Date: 2021–01

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