nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒11‒02
twelve papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa By Wilde, Joshua; Apouey, Bénédicte; Coleman, Joseph; Picone, Gabriel
  2. The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC By Mari?a Elvira Guerra-Cu?jar; Mounu Prem; Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes; Juan F. Vargas
  3. The effect of childcare on parental earnings trajectories By Krapf, Matthias; Roth, Anja; Slotwinski, Michaela
  4. Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women By Wookun Kim
  5. Contraception, Intra-household Behaviour and Epidemic: Evidence from the Zika crisis in Colombia By Cortés, D; Gamboa, L. F.; Rodríguez, P
  6. Grandparents, Moms, or Dads? Why Children of Teen Mothers Do Worse in Life By Aizer, Anna; Devereux, Paul J.; Salvanes, Kjell G.
  7. School Schedule and the Gender Pay Gap By Duchini, Emma; Van Effenterre, Clémentine
  8. Working Less to Take Care of Parents? Labor Market Effects of Family Long-Term Care in Four Latin American Countries By Stampini, Marco; Oliveri, María Laura; Ibarrarán, Pablo; Londoño, Diana; Rhee, Ho June (Sean); James, Gillinda M.
  9. Fired and Pregnant: Gender Differences in Job Flexibility Outcomes after Job Loss By Meekes, Jordy; Hassink, Wolter
  10. Keep Working and Spend Less? Collective Childcare and Parental Earnings in France By P. PORA
  11. Health of Elderly Parents, Their Children's Labor Supply, and the Role of Migrant Care Workers By Frimmel, Wolfgang; Halla, Martin; Paetzold, Jörg; Schmieder, Julia
  12. School Re-Openings after Summer Breaks in Germany Did Not Increase SARS-CoV-2 Cases By Isphording, Ingo E.; Lipfert, Marc; Pestel, Nico

  1. By: Wilde, Joshua (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Apouey, Bénédicte (Paris School of Economics); Coleman, Joseph (University of South Florida); Picone, Gabriel (University of South Florida)
    Abstract: We examine the extent to which recent declines in child mortality and fertility in Sub- Saharan Africa can be attributed to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs). Exploiting the rapid increase in ITNs since the mid-2000s, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation strategy to identify the causal effect of ITNs on mortality and fertility. We show that the ITN distribution campaigns reduced all-cause child mortality, but surprisingly increased total fertility rates in the short run in spite of reduced desire for children and increased contraceptive use. We explain this paradox in two ways. First, we show evidence for an unexpected increase in fecundity and sexual activity due to the better health environment after the ITN distribution. Second, we show evidence that the effect on fertility is positive only temporarily – lasting only 1-3 years after the beginning of the ITN distribution programs – and then becomes negative. Taken together, these results suggest the ITN distribution campaigns may have caused fertility to increase unexpectedly and temporarily, or that these increases may just be a tempo effect – changes in fertility timing which do not lead to increased completed fertility.
    Keywords: Malaria, bed nets, child mortality, fertility, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: I15 J13 O10 O15
    Date: 2020–10
  2. By: Mari?a Elvira Guerra-Cu?jar; Mounu Prem; Paul Rodríguez-Lesmes; Juan F. Vargas
    Abstract: Violent environments are known to affect household fertility choices, demand for health services and health outcomes of newborns. Using administrative data with a difference-in- differences strategy, we study how the end of the 50 years old Colombian conflict with FARC modified such decisions and outcomes in traditionally affected areas of the country. Results indicate that, after the start of permanent ceasefire in December 2014, the secular reduction of the total fertility rate was slowed down in municipalities traditionally affected by conflict. Total fertility rates increased in 2.6 percent in the formerly conflict-affected areas relative to the rest of the country. However, no impact was found for demand of health care services, neonatal and infant mortality rates, or birth outcomes such as the incidence of low weight at birth or the percentage of preterm births. Instead, our evidence shows that municipalities with landmine victims and that expelled internal refugees before the ceasefire have significantly higher total fertility rates in the four years following the ceasefire. We interpret these results as consistent with an increased optimism to raise children in a better environment, due to the sizable reduction in victimization in areas formerly violent areas.
    Keywords: Fertility, pregnancy, mortality, armed conflict, violence
    JEL: I12 I15
    Date: 2020–10–22
  3. By: Krapf, Matthias; Roth, Anja; Slotwinski, Michaela
    Abstract: We study the effect of childcare availability on child penalties. Using Swiss administrative data, we exploit the staggered opening od childcare facilities across municipalities in the canton of Bern. We find that the presence of childcare facilities in the year of birth of the first child reduces the child penalty. The availability of childcare increases maternal earnings and decreases the compensating increase in fathers' earnings in households with below median earnings, but not in households with above median earnings. Although childcare affects relative earnings contributions within the household, there is no effect on total household earnings.
    Keywords: child penalty,childcare,parental employment,gender wage gap
    JEL: D1 J00 J13 J16 H31
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Wookun Kim (Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of pro-natalist cash transfers (baby bonus) on birth outcomes. I exploit rich spatial and temporal variation in these cash transfers and administrative data on the universe of birth and death registry records in South Korea. I find that the pro-natalist cash transfers increased the number of children ever born by women. The total fertility rate in 2015 would have been 3% lower without the cash transfers. The elasticities of birth rates with respect to cash transfers vary widely across birth order and mother’s age. These financial incentives encouraged working mothers to have second and third children. I observe a decrease in gestational age among these working mothers, which in turn led to an overall reduction in birth weight. There is no evidence of changes in early life mortality, but the cash transfers shifted the male-skewed sex ratio towards its natural level.
    Keywords: cash transfer, fertility, neonatal health, missing women, son preference.
    JEL: H40 H75 J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2020–10
  5. By: Cortés, D; Gamboa, L. F.; Rodríguez, P
    Abstract: We exploit the Zika outbreak in Colombia in 2015 to explore how a negative shock that puts at high risk the newborn’s health affects female behaviours associated with fertility, according to their marital status. The potential endogeneity of behaviours and the outbreak onset is avoided by using instrumental variables strategies in the context of an intensity-of-treatment difference-in-differences at the municipality level. While single women reduce sexual activity (the extensive margin), married women do not; instead, married women increase contraception in both the extensive margin and the intensive margin (they substitute less effective methods for more effective ones). This result is in line with a moral hazard model of fertility decisions within the couple. According to the model, not having a child may aggrieve the husband, and he may, in turn, become a "difficult" husband. In such a model, the ZIKV epidemic increases the use of women’s contraception and reduces the likelihood of men’s retaliation. We find no significant effects on intra-household violence exerted by men (i.e. physical and psychological violence or forced sex) nor reductions in the proportion of expenditures made by women. We do find that husbands of older women are less likely to have other sexual partners. There are heterogeneous effects across age groups and education level.
    Keywords: fertility; intra-household allocation; outbreaks; intimate partner violence
    JEL: D13 I12 I15 J13
    Date: 2020–10–01
  6. By: Aizer, Anna (Brown University); Devereux, Paul J. (University College Dublin); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Women who give birth as teens have worse subsequent educational and labor market outcomes than women who have first births at older ages. However, previous research has attributed much of these effects to selection rather than a causal effect of teen childbearing. Despite this, there are still reasons to believe that children of teen mothers may do worse as their mothers may be less mature, have fewer financial resources when the child is young, and may partner with fathers of lower quality. Using Norwegian register data, we compare outcomes of children of sisters who have first births at different ages. Our evidence suggests that the causal effect of being a child of a teen mother is much smaller than that implied by the cross-sectional differences but that there are probably still significant long-term, adverse consequences, especially for children born to the youngest teen mothers. Unlike previous research, we have information on fathers and find that negative selection of fathers of children born to teen mothers plays an important role in producing inferior child outcomes. These effects are particularly large for mothers from higher socio- economic groups. Our data also enable us to examine the effect of age at first birth across a range of maternal ages. Importantly, while we find that child outcomes are worst for those born to teen mothers, outcomes improve with mothers' age at first birth until mothers are in their mid-20s and then flatten out.
    Keywords: teen childbearing, child outcomes, human capital
    JEL: J12 J13 I31 I32
    Date: 2020–10
  7. By: Duchini, Emma (University of Warwick); Van Effenterre, Clémentine (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: We provide causal evidence that children's school schedules contribute to the persistence of the gender pay gap between parents. Historically, French children have had no school on Wednesdays. In 2013, a reform reallocated some classes to Wednesday mornings. Exploiting variations in the application of this reform over time and across the age of the youngest child, we show that mothers are more likely to adopt a regular Monday-Friday full-time working schedule after the reform, while fathers' labor supply is unchanged. Consequently, the reform decreased the monthly gender pay gap by 6 percent, generating fiscal revenues that substantially outweigh its costs.
    Keywords: school schedule, gender inequality, female labor supply, child penalty
    JEL: H52 J13 J16 J22
    Date: 2020–10
  8. By: Stampini, Marco (Inter-American Development Bank); Oliveri, María Laura (Inter-American Development Bank); Ibarrarán, Pablo (Inter-American Development Bank); Londoño, Diana (University of Rosario); Rhee, Ho June (Sean) (Middlebury College); James, Gillinda M. (Middlebury College)
    Abstract: We use data from time-use surveys and the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) to analyze the relationship between family long-term care (LTC) and female labor supply in four Latin American countries. Time-use survey data from Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico shows that: (i) women provide the vast majority of family LTC; (ii) consistently across countries, women who provide LTC are less likely to work, and those who do work less hours per week and have a double burden of work and LTC. Multivariate analysis of longitudinal MHAS data shows that, after accounting for both individual and time fixed effects, parents' need for LTC is associated with both a significant drop in the likelihood of working (by 2.42 percentage points) and a reduction in the number of hours worked among women ages 50–64 who remain employed (by 7.03%). This finding has important gender equality implications. Also, in a region that is aging faster than any other in the world, social trends make this family provision of LTC unsustainable, increasing the need for policy action.
    Keywords: female labor supply, Long-Term Care (LTC), elderly care, care dependence, time-use surveys, Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS), Latin America, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico
    JEL: J14 J16 J18 J21 J22
    Date: 2020–10
  9. By: Meekes, Jordy (University of Melbourne); Hassink, Wolter (Utrecht University)
    Abstract: We study whether women and men cope with job loss differently. We use 2006-2017 Dutch administrative monthly microdata and a quasi-experimental design involving job displacement because of firm bankruptcy. We find that displaced women are more likely than displaced men to take up a flexible job with limited working hours and short commutes. However, displaced women experience longer unemployment durations and comparable hourly wage losses. Displaced expectant mothers experience relatively high losses in employment and working hours. Our findings suggest that the costs of job flexibility for displaced female workers come through longer unemployment instead of higher losses in wages.
    Keywords: job loss, gender, job flexibility, working hours, commute, household, pregnancy
    JEL: J16 J22 J31 J32 J6 R2
    Date: 2020–10
  10. By: P. PORA (Insee - Crest)
    Abstract: I leverage the staggered expansion of subsidized childcare institutions across municipalities, induced by asuccession of national plans, to investigate the effect of collective childcare on parents' labor outcomes and childcare choices in France between 2007 and 2015. These plans did not lead to any substantial change neither in the labor outcomes of parents nor in the take-up of paid parental leave. Instead, these collective childcare expansions crowded out more costly formal childcare solutions, such as childminders or at-home childcare. These crowding-out effects highlight a downside of family policy strategies that foster the coexistence of multiple childcare arrangements.
    Keywords: Labor supply, childcare, event-study, parental leave.
    JEL: J13 J16 J18 J22
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Frimmel, Wolfgang (University of Linz); Halla, Martin (University of Linz); Paetzold, Jörg (University of Salzburg); Schmieder, Julia (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of parental health on adult children's labor market outcomes. We focus on health shocks which increase care dependency abruptly. Our estimation strategy exploits the variation in the timing of shocks across treated families. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data show a significant negative impact on labor market activities of children. This effect is more pronounced for daughters and for children who live close to their parents. Further analyses suggest informal caregiving as the most likely mechanism. The effect is muted after a liberalization of the formal care market, which sharply increased the supply of foreign care workers.
    Keywords: informal care, formal care, aging, health, labor supply, labor migration
    JEL: J14 J22 I11 I18 R23
    Date: 2020–10
  12. By: Isphording, Ingo E. (IZA); Lipfert, Marc (University of Bonn); Pestel, Nico (IZA)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the end of school summer breaks on SARS-CoV-2 cases in Germany. We exploit variation in the staggered timing of summer breaks across federal states which allows us to implement an event study design. We base our analysis on official daily counts of confirmed coronavirus infections by age groups across all 401 German counties. We consider an event window of two weeks before and three weeks after the end of summer breaks. Over a large number of specifications, sub-group analyses and robustness checks, we do not find any evidence of a positive effect of school re-openings on case numbers. On the contrary, our preferred specification indicates that the end of summer breaks had a negative effect on the number of new confirmed cases. Three weeks after the end of summer breaks, cases have decreased by 0.55 cases per 100,000 inhabitants or 27 percent of a standard deviation. Our results are not explained by changes in mobility patterns around school re-openings arising from travel returnees. We conclude that school re-openings in Germany under strict hygiene measures combined with quarantine and containment measures have not increased the number of newly confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections.
    Keywords: COVID-19, schooling, education, Germany
    JEL: I12 I18 I28
    Date: 2020–10

This nep-dem issue is ©2020 by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.