nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒08‒17
nine papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. The Association Between Educational Attainment and Longevity using Individual Level Data from the 1940 Census By Adriana Lleras-Muney; Joseph Price; Dahai Yue
  2. Women at Work in the Pre-Civil War United States: An Analysis of Unreported Family Workers By Barry R. Chiswick; RaeAnn Halenda Robinson
  3. Demographic shocks and women’s labor market participation : evidence from the 1918 influenza pandemic in india By Fenske, James; Gupta, Bishnupriya; Yuan, Song
  4. From Secular Stagnation to Robocalypse? Implications of Demographic and Technological Changes By Basso, Henrique S.; Jimeno, Juan F
  5. Linking Changes in Inequality in Life Expectancy and Mortality: Evidence from Denmark and the United States By Gordon Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Heien Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
  6. The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage By Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A.
  7. The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility By Carl T. Kitchens; Luke P. Rodgers
  8. Global years of life lost to COVID-19 By Arolas, Héctor Pifarré i; Acosta, Enrique; Casasnovas, Guillem López; Lo, Adeline; Nicodemo, Catia; Riffe, Tim; Myrskylä, Mikko
  9. Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New Keynesian Models By Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt

  1. By: Adriana Lleras-Muney; Joseph Price; Dahai Yue
    Abstract: We combine newly released individual data from the 1940 full-count census with death records and other information available in family trees to create the largest individual data to date to study the association between years of schooling and age at death. Conditional on surviving to age 35, one additional year of education is associated with roughly 0.4 more years of life for both men and women for cohorts born 1906-1915. This association is close to linear but exhibits strong credentialing effects, particularly for men, and is substantially smaller for cohorts born earlier. This association varies substantially by state of birth, but it is not smaller in states with higher levels of education or longevity. For men the association is stronger in places with greater incomes, higher quality of school, and larger investments in public health. Women also exhibit great heterogeneity in the association, but our measures of the childhood environment do not explain it.
    JEL: I10 I20 J10
    Date: 2020–07
  2. By: Barry R. Chiswick (George Washington University); RaeAnn Halenda Robinson (George Washington)
    Abstract: Rates of labor force participation in the US in the second half of the nineteenth century among free women were exceedingly (and implausibly) low, about 11 percent. This is due, in part, to social perceptions of working women, cultural and societal expectations of female’s role, and lack of accurate or thorough enumeration by Census officials. This paper develops an augmented free female labor force participation rate for 1860. It is calculated by identifying free women (age 16 and older) who were likely providing informal and unenumerated labor for market production in support of a family business, that is, unreported family workers. These individuals are identified as not having a reported occupation, but are likely to be working on the basis of the self-employment occupation of other relatives in their households. Family workers are classified into three categories: farm, merchant, and craft. The inclusion of this category of workers more than triples the free female labor force participation rate in the 1860 Census, from 16 percent to 56 percent, which is comparable to today’s rate (57 percent in 2018).
    Keywords: Women, Labor Force Participation, Occupational Attainment, Unpaid Workers, Unreported Family Workers, 1860 Census
    JEL: N31 J16 J21 J82
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: Fenske, James (University of Warwick); Gupta, Bishnupriya (University of Warwick); Yuan, Song (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: How did the 1918 inuenza pandemic affect female labor force participation in India over the short run and the medium run? We use an event-study approach at the district level and four waves of decadal census data in order to answer this question. We find that districts most adversely affected by influenza mortality saw a temporary increase in female labor force participation in 1921, an increase that was concentrated in the service sector. By 1931, this increase had been reversed. We find suggestive evidence that distress labor supply by widows and rising wages help account for these results.
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Basso, Henrique S.; Jimeno, Juan F
    Abstract: Demographic changes and a new wave of innovation and automation are two main structural trends shaping the macroeconomy in the next decades. We present a general equilibrium model with a tractable life-cycle structure that allows the investigation of the main transmission mechanisms by which demography and technology affect economic growth. Due to a trade-off between innovation and automation, lower fertility and population ageing lead to a reduction in GDP per capita growth and the labour income share. Assuming different labour market configurations and scenarios for the integration of robots in economic activity only partially compensate for these effects.
    Keywords: automation; Innovation; Population Ageing
    JEL: J11 O31 O40
    Date: 2019–11
  5. By: Gordon Dahl; Claus Thustrup Kreiner; Torben Heien Nielsen; Benjamin Ly Serena
    Abstract: We decompose changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability”. Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in life expectancy inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Cardiovascular mortality declines favored the poor, but differences in lifestyle-related survivability led inequality to rise.
    JEL: H51 I14 J11
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A.
    Abstract: The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, marriage, and a premarital sexual relationship. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
    Date: 2019–11
  7. By: Carl T. Kitchens; Luke P. Rodgers
    Abstract: Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand World War I, we examine the fertility response to increases in crop revenues during the period 1910-1930. Our estimates from samples utilizing both complete count decennial census microdata and newly collected county-level data from state health reports indicate that a doubling of the agricultural price index reduced fertility by around 8 percent both immediately and in the years following the boom. We further document that this effect was more pronounced in more agrarian areas and where the labor intensity of agriculture was more intense. Extensive robustness checks and analysis of potential mechanisms indicate that the decrease in fertility was driven by increased female opportunity costs which dominated any household income effects resulting from the price boom.
    JEL: J12 J13 N12 N5
    Date: 2020–07
  8. By: Arolas, Héctor Pifarré i; Acosta, Enrique (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); Casasnovas, Guillem López; Lo, Adeline; Nicodemo, Catia; Riffe, Tim; Myrskylä, Mikko
    Abstract: Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 42 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. As of June 13th 2020, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2 to 6 times the average seasonal influenza; over two thirds of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and one quarter from deaths below 55; and men have lost 47% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  9. By: Martin S. Eichenbaum; Sergio Rebelo; Mathias Trabandt
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does not rationalize the positive comovement of consumption and investment observed in recessions associated with an epidemic. Introducing monopolistic competition into the neoclassical model remedies this shortcoming even when prices are completely flexible. Finally, sticky prices lead to a larger recession but do not fundamentally alter the predictions of the monopolistic competition model.
    JEL: E1 H0 I1
    Date: 2020–06

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