nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒07‒20
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. The Future of Saving; The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World By David Amaglobeli; Hua Chai; Era Dabla-Norris; Kamil Dybczak; Mauricio Soto; Alexander F. Tieman
  2. Family Planning and Development: Aggregate Effects of Contraceptive Use By Cavalcanti, Tiago; Kocharkov, Georgi; Santos, Cezar
  3. Household Resources and Individual Strategies By Deschênes, Sarah; Dumas, Christelle; Lambert, Sylvie
  4. Baby Steps: The Gender Division of Childcare during the COVID-19 Pandemic By Sevilla, Almudena; Smith, Sarah
  5. Spousal Labor Supply, Caregiving, and the Value of Disability Insurance By Siha Lee

  1. By: David Amaglobeli; Hua Chai; Era Dabla-Norris; Kamil Dybczak; Mauricio Soto; Alexander F. Tieman
    Abstract: This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.
    Keywords: Savings;Pensions;Aging;Demographic transition;Health care spending;National income;Economic stabilization;Social safety nets;Economic growth;Demographics,Saving,Pension Spending,Demographic Trends and Forecasts,General,Social Security and Public Pensions,pension system,PAYG,national save,work age population,benefit ratio
    Date: 2019–01–15
  2. By: Cavalcanti, Tiago; Kocharkov, Georgi; Santos, Cezar
    Abstract: What is the role of family planning interventions on fertility, savings, human capital investment, and development? To examine this, endogenous unwanted fertility is embedded in an otherwise standard quantity-quality overlapping generations model of fertility and growth. The model features costly fertility control and families can (partially) insure against a fertility risk by using costly modern contraceptives. In the event of unexpected pregnancies, households can also opt to abort some pregnancies, at a cost. Given the number of children born, parents decide how much education to provide and how much to save out of their income. We fit the model to Kenyan data, implement several family planning policies and decompose their aggregate effects. Our results suggest that with a small government budget (say, up to 0.5 percent of GDP), family planning interventions might be more cost-effective in improving longrun living standards than policies that subsidise basic education.
    Keywords: Abortion; Contraception; education; Income per capita
    JEL: E24 I15 J13 O11
    Date: 2020–01
  3. By: Deschênes, Sarah (Paris School of Economics; Institut national d'études démographiques (INED)); Dumas, Christelle; Lambert, Sylvie (Paris School of Economics and INRAE)
    Abstract: The question of diverging interests and preferences within couples over the use of household resources and the consequences of these conflictual views has been present for a long time in the development literature, albeit in a somewhat scattered way. This paper selectively reviews the abundant literature that offers insights into the intrahousehold decision-making process, the strategies put in place by individuals to secure their access to private resources, and the role of the changing economic environment in altering these mechanisms. This paper bridges different strands of the social sciences and exemplifies the complementarities among them. The main features of household organization are described to set the scene for the individual strategies introduced to bypass intrahousehold negotiations and secure access to private resources. These strategies include efforts to maintain access to income-earning opportunities and secrecy about income and savings. This paper also discusses attempts to maintain or tilt the balance of power within the household through the use of violence, on the one hand, and marital and fertility choices on the other hand. Finally, this paper describes directions for future research aimed at improving the understanding of household behaviour and responses to economic stimuli.
    Keywords: Intrahousehold allocation; Noncooperative behaviour; Family; Africa and Asia
    JEL: D13 O12 O15 J16
    Date: 2020–07–06
  4. By: Sevilla, Almudena (University College London); Smith, Sarah (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: The COVID19 pandemic has caused shocks to the demand for home childcare (with the closure of schools and nurseries) and the supply of home childcare (with many people not working). We collect real-time data on daily lives to document that UK families with young children have been doing the equivalent of a working week in childcare. Women have been doing the greater share, but overall, the gender childcare gap (the difference between the share of childcare done by women and the share done by men) for the additional, post-COVID19 hours is smaller than that for the allocation of pre-COVID19 childcare. However, the amount of additional childcare provided by men is very sensitive to their employment – the allocation has become more equal in households where men are working from home and where they have been furloughed/ lost their job. There are likely to be long-term implications from these changes – potentially negative for the careers of parents of young children; but also, more positively for some families, for sharing the burden of childcare more equally in the future.
    Keywords: gender, childcare, COVID-19, Coronavirus
    JEL: J21 J22 J24 J33 J63
    Date: 2020–05
  5. By: Siha Lee
    Abstract: For married couples, spousal labor supply can act as a household insurance mechanism against one spouse’s earnings shock. This paper evaluates the insurance value of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program among married households when wives face a time allocation problem between market hours and spousal care following their husbands’ disability. Using an event study approach, I find that while there is a sizable increase in wives’ working hours after their husbands’ job displacement, wives’ labor supply responses to their husbands’ disability are small, and instead, a considerable amount of time is spent in spousal care. I develop and estimate a dynamic structural model of married households and find that incorporating time loss due to spousal care increases the insurance value of SSDI relative to its costs. Furthermore, policy reforms such as supplementary caregiving benefits can improve social welfare.
    Keywords: disability; social security; added worker effect; caregiving
    JEL: D13 H53 H55 I38 J22
    Date: 2020–06

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