nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒25
four papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Financing the Consumptionof the Young and Old in France By Hippolyte d'Albis; Carole Bonnet; Xavier Chojnicki; Najat El Mekkaoui; Angela Greulich; Jérôme Hubert; Julien Navaux
  2. The impact of demographic change on transfers of care and associated well-being By Denys Dukhovnov; Joan Ryan; Emilio Zagheni
  3. The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage By Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen Kopecky
  4. The redistributive effects of pandemics: evidence on the Spanish flu By Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon; Basco Mascaro, Sergi

  1. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Carole Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Xavier Chojnicki (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies); Najat El Mekkaoui; Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Jérôme Hubert (LEM - Lille économie management - LEM - UMR 9221 - Université de Lille - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (uOttawa - University of Ottawa [Ottawa])
    Abstract: A better understanding of the resource allocation across ages is fundamentalto put in place welfare reforms in the context of population ageing.In times of major demographic change, the redistribution of resourcesbetween age groups and the funding of the economically inactive aged remainsa recurring topic of public debate and a major public policy concern inOECD countries. Governments search for a policy mix that will improve thequality of life of the elderly, while at the same time investing in the futureof the young and reducing the fiscal burden on the working population.Life expectancy and education requirements are increasing while budgetconstraints are tightening. This potentially creates tension in the allocationof resources between age groups (Preston 1984; Lee and Mason 2011a).By applying the methodology of National Transfer Accounts (NTA),this article analyzes for France (1) how the funding of consumption (publicand private) is secured at each age; (2) how the funding of consumptionhas changed over recent decades; and (3) how the consumption is financedcompared to that of other countries (China, Germany, Japan, Sweden,United Kingdom, and United States). We consider three sources for financingconsumption: the State (net transfers and in-kind services), individualsthemselves (income and assets), and families (inter vivos transfers, excludingbequests, following the NTA methodology) (United Nations 2013b).
    Keywords: Private and Public Consumption,Inter-Generational Equity,Generational Economy,National Transfer Accounts
    Date: 2018–12–19
  2. By: Denys Dukhovnov (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Joan Ryan; Emilio Zagheni (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the impact of demographic change on long-term, macro-level childcare and adult care transfers, and the associated well-being effects of informal caregiving. Method: We measure the impact of demographic change on non-monetary care exchanged between different groups by estimating matrices of time transfers by age and sex, and weighting the time flows by self-reported indicators of well-being, for activities related to childcare and adult care. The analysis employs cross-sectional data from the American Time Use Survey 2011-2013, and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Disability and Use of Time Module 2013 to produce the estimates of well-being associated with various forms of care. Results: We show that people have more positive feelings when caring for children than when caring for adults. Although reductions in the country-level care supply are expected to be small relative to demand, future projections indicate a 17.1% decrease in the ratio of time spent caring for children under age 15 relative to time spent caring for the rest of the population by 2050. While this change is expected to produce only a minor increase in the ratio of negative-to-positive feelings associated with caregiving, purely due to population aging, it could have nontrivial deterioration of well-being for some caregivers. Discussion: Significant reductions in absolute caregiver well-being caused by demographic changes at the population level may reduce workload, productivity, and adversely impact health, if not offset by caregiver-friendly family policies.
    Keywords: USA, child care, household, time budget
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (CEMFI); Karen Kopecky
    Abstract: The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, a premarital sexual relationship, and marriage. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented.
    Keywords: age of marriage, contraceptive technology, history, never-married population, number of partners, out-of-wedlock births, premarital sex, singles
    JEL: J12 J13 N32 N31
    Date: 2020–05
  4. By: Domènech Feliu, Jordi; Roses Vendoiro, Juan Ramon; Basco Mascaro, Sergi
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of a pandemic in a developing economy. Measured by excess deaths relative to the historical trend, the 1918 influenza in Spain was one of the most intense in Western Europe. However, aggregate output and consumption were only mildly affected. In this paper we assess the impact of the flu by exploiting within-country variationin "excess deaths" and we focus on the returns to factors of production. Our main result is that the effect of flu-related "excess deaths" on real wages is large, negative, and shortlived.The effects are heterogeneous across occupations, from none to a 15 per cent decline, concentrated in 1918. The negative effects are exacerbated in more urbanized provinces. In addition, we do not find effects of the flu on the returns to capital. Indeed, neither dividends nor real estate prices (houses and land) were negatively affected by flu-related increases inmortality. Our interpretation is that the Spanish Flu represented a negative demand shock that was mostly absorbed by workers, especially in more urbanized regions.
    Keywords: Returns to capital; Real wages; Spanish flu; Pandemics
    JEL: N30 N10 I00 E32
    Date: 2020–05–21

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