nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒11
six papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Demographic Perspectives on Mortality of Covid-19 and Other Epidemics By Joshua R. Goldstein; Ronald D. Lee
  2. : Does retirement affect secondary preventive care use? Evidence from breast cancer screening By Peter Eibich; Léontine Goldzahl
  3. Who Has Benefited from Nursing Home Expansion in Japan?: The Effects of Government Supply-Side Intervention in the Elderly Care Market By Nishimura, Y.;; Oikawa, M.;
  4. Economic Resources, Mortality and Inequality By Orazio P. Attanasio; Torben Heien Nielsen
  5. Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK By Giesecke, Matthias; Jäger, Philipp
  6. Automation and Demographic Change By Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus

  1. By: Joshua R. Goldstein; Ronald D. Lee
    Abstract: What would a hypothetical one million US deaths in the Covid-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the population level? To put estimates of Covid-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes one million US lives, with results scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 3 years) and remaining life-years (12.3 years per death), which for one million deaths can be valued at six to 10 trillion dollars. The age-patterns of Covid-19 mortality observed in other countries are remarkably similar and exhibit the typical rate of increase by age of normal mortality. The scenario of one million Covid-19 deaths is similar in scale to the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than the Spanish Flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the Covid-19 deaths will be concentrated in months rather than spread out over decades.
    JEL: J1 J10 J11
    Date: 2020–04
  2. By: Peter Eibich; Léontine Goldzahl
    Abstract: Population ageing is expected to increase the burden of non-communicable diseases, e.g., cardiovascular diseases and cancer. These diseases are amenable to prevention, such as lifestyle changes (primary prevention) and early detection (secondary prevention), and thus prevention is considered to be one of the keys to maintaining the health of an ageing population. This paper examines the causal impact of retirement on secondary preventive care use. While we focus on breast cancer screening, we also provide evidence for other types of screening such as cervical cancer screening. We use five waves of data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted between 1996 and 2006, covering 25 different European countries. We address the endogeneity of retirement by using age thresholds for pension eligibility as instrumental variables. We find that retirement reduces secondary preventive care use. This effect is not driven by changes in health or income. Instead, our evidence suggests that generosity of the social health insurance system and women’s beliefs concerning cancer prevention and treatment are important mechanisms.
    Keywords: Europe; retirement; health behavior; instrumental variables; preventive care; breast cancer
    JEL: I12 I18 J26 C26
    Date: 2020–04
  3. By: Nishimura, Y.;; Oikawa, M.;
    Abstract: This study analyzes the relation between the labor force participation of caregivers and the provision of informal in-home elderly care. In Japan, the national government both regulates the market entry of nursing home suppliers and intervenes in the supply side of the eldercare market. Using exogenous variations in this supply side intervention, our analysis finds that the Japanese policy of expanding nursing homes has increased the labor force participation of female workers with low opportunity costs in the labor market while simultaneously reducing their provision of informal care. As the per capita expense of nursing home care is higher than the wage income of most non-regular female workers who tend to provide the bulk of informal in-home care, one may reasonably conclude that the capacity of public nursing homes in Japan has expanded excessively, putting unnecessary pressure both on the Japanese budget and the personal provision of eldercare services.
    Keywords: long-term care insurance system; labor supply; medical expenditure; regulation;
    JEL: H51 I18 J14 J18 J22
    Date: 2020–02
  4. By: Orazio P. Attanasio (University College London, Department of Economics, Institute for Fiscal Studies and NBER); Torben Heien Nielsen (CEBI, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: Using full-population register data from Denmark, this study shows that estimates of the economic gradient in mortality depends on the specific measure of economic resources used, where we investigate permanent income, annual income or financial and housing wealth. Our favorite measure is what we call �Permanent income�, that is the average level of income over a long interval. We find that when using annual income or current wealth, the gradient is overestimated, unless one controls for a number of additional variables, such as education, civil status and initial health. In the last part of the paper, we compare the results from Denmark to results from the UK. Although the countries are very different in terms of inequality, the estimates of the gradient we find are very similar, suggesting that differential levels of resources (including information), rather than inequality itself, determine the gradient in survival and mortality.
    Keywords: Mortality, Permanent Income, Economic resources and Inequality
    JEL: P16 E60 Z13
    Date: 2020–01–13
  5. By: Giesecke, Matthias; Jäger, Philipp
    Abstract: We study the labor supply effects and welfare implications of introducing a universal means-tested old-age assistance program in times of very limited social protection. We take advantage of a unique historical reform: The Old-Age Pension Act (OPA) of 1908, which, for the first time, provided pensions to older people in the UK. Using recently released full-count census data covering the entire population, we exploit variation at the newly created age-based eligibility threshold. Our results show a considerable and abrupt decline in labor force participation of 6.0 percentage points (13%) when older workers reach the eligibility age of 70. This sudden drop only occurs at the age cutoff and only after the OPA was implemented. Despite the considerable labor supply decline, the overall efficiency loss from the OPA was limited and most likely outweighed by equity gains.
    Keywords: Old-age assistance,labor supply,retirement,regression discontinuity design,equity-efficiency trade-off
    JEL: D61 H21 H55 J14 J22 J26
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Abeliansky, Ana Lucia; Prettner, Klaus
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of declining population growth on automation. Theoretical considerations imply that countries with lower population growth introduce automation technologies faster. We test the theoretical implication on panel data for 60 countries over the time span 1993-2013. Regression estimates support the theoretical implication, suggesting that a 1% increase in population growth is associated with an approximately 2% reduction in the growth rate of robot density. Our results are robust to the inclusion of standard control variables, different estimation methods, dynamic specifications, and changes with respect to the measurement of the stock of robots.
    Keywords: Automation,Industrial Robots,Demographic Change,Declining Fertility
    JEL: J11 O33 O40
    Date: 2020

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