|
on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Victor Gay (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the pathways that underlie the diffusion of women's participation in the labor force across generations. I exploit a severe exoge-nous shock to the sex ratio, World War I in France, which generated a large inflow of women in the labor force after the war. I show that this shock to female labor transmitted to subsequent generations until today. Three mechanisms of intergenerational transmission account for this result: parental transmission, transmission through marriage, and transmission through local social interactions. Beyond behaviors, the war also permanently altered beliefs toward the role of women in the labor force. (JEL J16, J22, N34, Z13) |
| Keywords: | Social norm,Military fatalities,Female labor force participation,Female labor supply,Intergenerational transmission,World War I,Gender norms,Economic History,Culture |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02523129&r=all |
| By: | Danzer, Alexander M. (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt); Zyska, Lennard (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt) |
| Abstract: | This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women's fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil's expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons. |
| Keywords: | pension wealth, fertility, old-age security hypothesis, quasi-experiment, PAYG, Brazil |
| JEL: | J13 I38 H55 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13048&r=all |
| By: | Choi, Eleanor J. (Hanyang University); Choi, Jaewoo (Korea Development Institute (KDI)); Son, Hyelim (University of Seoul) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor market entry in a large-scale recession has prolonged effects on a young worker's life course even after the penalties in the labor market have disappeared. |
| Keywords: | recession, financial crisis, long-term effects, college graduates |
| JEL: | E32 J10 E21 J20 J31 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13009&r=all |
| By: | Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursúa; Joanna Weng |
| Abstract: | Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Pandemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918-1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu-generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills. |
| JEL: | E1 I0 O4 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26866&r=all |
| By: | Titan Alon; Matthias Doepke; Jane Olmstead-Rumsey; Michèle Tertilt |
| Abstract: | The economic downturn caused by the current COVID-19 outbreak has substantial implications for gender equality, both during the downturn and the subsequent recovery. Compared to ``regular'' recessions, which affect men's employment more severely than women's employment, the employment drop related to social distancing measures has a large impact on sectors with high female employment shares. In addition, closures of schools and daycare centers have massively increased child care needs, which has a particularly large impact on working mothers. The effects of the crisis on working mothers are likely to be persistent, due to high returns to experience in the labor market. Beyond the immediate crisis, there are opposing forces which may ultimately promote gender equality in the labor market. First, businesses are rapidly adopting flexible work arrangements, which are likely to persist. Second, there are also many fathers who now have to take primary responsibility for child care, which may erode social norms that currently lead to a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in house work and child care. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, Division of Labor, Business Cycle, Gender Equality |
| JEL: | D13 J16 O10 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_163&r=all |
| By: | Andrew Atkeson |
| Abstract: | This note is intended to introduce economists to a simple SIR model of the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over the next 12-18 months. An SIR model is a Markov model of the spread of an epidemic in a population in which the total population is divided into categories of being susceptible to the disease (S), actively infected with the disease (I), and recovered (or dead) and no longer contagious (R). How an epidemic plays out over time is determined by the transition rates between these three states. This model allows for quantitative statements regarding the tradeoff between the severity and timing of suppression of the disease through social distancing and the progression of the disease in the population. Example applications of the model are provided. Special attention is given to the question of if and when the fraction of active infections in the population exceeds 1% (at which point the health system is forecast to be severely challenged) and 10% (which may result in severe staffing shortages for key financial and economic infrastructure) as well as the cumulative burden of the disease over an 18 month horizon. |
| JEL: | C0 E0 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26867&r=all |
| By: | Bahar, Dany (Brookings Institution); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Turati, Riccardo (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the relationship between a country's economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that countries with higher birthplace diversity by one standard deviation are more economically complex by 0.1 to 0.18 standard deviations above the mean. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country's export basket. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, birthplace diversity, immigration, growth |
| JEL: | F22 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13078&r=all |
| By: | Òscar Jordà; Sanjay R. Singh; Alan M. Taylor |
| Abstract: | How do major pandemics affect economic activity in the medium to longer term? Is it consistent with what economic theory prescribes? Since these are rare events, historical evidence over many centuries is required. We study rates of return on assets using a dataset stretching back to the 14th century, focusing on 12 major pandemics where more than 100,000 people died. In addition, we include major armed conflicts resulting in a similarly large death toll. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of the pandemics persist for about 40 years, with real rates of return substantially depressed. In contrast, we find that wars have no such effect, indeed the opposite. This is consistent with the destruction of capital that happens in wars, but not in pandemics. Using more sparse data, we find real wages somewhat elevated following pandemics. The findings are consistent with pandemics inducing labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings. |
| Keywords: | depressions; natural rate; local projections; wars; real interest rate; pandemics; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E43 F41 N10 N30 N40 |
| Date: | 2020–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:87696&r=all |
| By: | Sergio Correia; Stephan Luck; Emil Verner |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 outbreak has sparked urgent questions about the impact of pandemics, and associated countermeasures, on the real economy. Policymakers are in uncharted territory, with little guidance on what the expected economic fallout will be and how the crisis should be managed. In this blog post, we use insights from a recent research paper to discuss two sets of questions. First, what are the real economic effects of a pandemic—and are these effects temporary or persistent? Second, how does the local public health response affect the economic severity of the pandemic? In particular, do non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing have economic costs, or do policies that slow the spread of the pandemic also reduce its economic severity? |
| Keywords: | non-pharmaceutical interventions; real effects; Pandemic |
| JEL: | N32 E0 N12 E32 |
| Date: | 2020–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87691&r=all |