nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2020‒03‒16
three papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Retirement, Intergenerational Time Transfers, and Fertility By Eibich, Peter; Siedler, Thomas
  2. Effects of policy on fertility. A systematic review of (quasi)experiments By Janna Bergsvik; Agnes Fauske; Rannveig K. Hart
  3. Weather Shocks and Migration Intentions in Western Africa: Insights from a Multilevel Analysis By Simone Bertoli; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport; Ilse Ruyssen

  1. By: Eibich, Peter (DIW Berlin); Siedler, Thomas (University of Hamburg)
    Abstract: Retired parents might invest time into their adult children by providing childcare. Such intergenerational time transfers can have important implications for family decisions. This paper estimates the effects of parental retirement on adult children's fertility. We use representative panel data from Germany to link observations on parents and adult children. We exploit eligibility ages for early retirement for identification in a regression discontinuity design. The results show that parent's early retirement significantly increases the probability of childbirth for adult children. However, parental retirement affects only the timing of adult children's fertility, without having an effect on total fertility.
    Keywords: retirement, fertility, intergenerational transfer, time use
    JEL: J13 J14 J22 J26
    Date: 2020–02
  2. By: Janna Bergsvik (Statistics Norway); Agnes Fauske; Rannveig K. Hart
    Abstract: This paper describes the results of a systematic review of the literature of policy effects on fertility after 1970 in Europe, USA, Canada and Australia. Empirical studies were selected through extensive systematic searches, with subsequent literature list screening. Inclusion was conditional on implementing an experimental or quasi-experimental design. 57 published papers and recent working papers were included, covering the topics of parental leave, childcare, health services, universal child transfers and welfare reforms. Childcare and universal transfers seem to have the most positive effects on fertility. Few effects were found for parental leave, but this could be linked to these reforms not lending themselves to efficient (quasi)experimental evaluation. Withdrawing cash transfers to families through welfare reforms has limited fertility effects. Subsidizing assisted reproductive technologies show some promise in increasing birth rates of women above age 35.
    Keywords: Fertility; Public policy; Family policy; Policy effects; Quasi experiment
    JEL: J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2020–02
  3. By: Simone Bertoli; Frédéric Docquier; Hillel Rapoport; Ilse Ruyssen
    Abstract: We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climatic conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents.
    Keywords: international migration, migration intentions, individual-level data, weather shocks, Western Africa
    JEL: F22 J61 O13 O15
    Date: 2020

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