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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Hippolyte d'Albis (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Ekrame Boubtane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Dramane Coulibaly (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we study the impact of demographic changes on the inequality between capital and labor. More precisely, we analyze the impact of exogenous changes in both the rate of natural increase and the net migration rate on the labor income as a share of total income. We estimate a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model on a panel of 18 OECD countries with annual data for 1985-2015. We obtain that the response of the labor income share to an exogenous change in the rate of natural increase is signi_cantly negative a few years after the shock whereas its response to an exogenous change in the net migration rate is significantly positive. This suggests that inequality between capital and labor is reduced by international migration while fostered by the natural increase. We rationalize these _ndings in an original representative agent model where the rate of natural increase and the net migration rate are both modeled. The theoretical model reproduces the empirical _ndings and highlight the crucial roles of both the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor and the participation rate of migrants to the labor market. The model is then used to evaluate the dynamics consequences of permanent demographic changes and, most notably, reveals that in the long run, the labor income share is likely to fall with both the natural increase and the net migration. |
| Keywords: | International migration,natural increase,labor income share,panel VAR |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02278765&r=all |
| By: | Martijn Dröes (Universiteit van Amsterdam); Hans R.A. Koster (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The number of refugees around the world has increased substantially in the last decade. To cope with refugee flows, many countries have built refugee centers (RCs) for refugees to await the outcome of their asylum procedure. The opening of such centers often leads to considerable opposition from the local population. Using detailed housing transactions data from the Netherlands over the period 1990-2015, we examine locals' attitudes towards immigration by investigating households' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid living near RCs. Comparing the price developments of opened RCs and those that are planned, we show that the opening of an RC decreases house prices within 2km by 3-6%. Using micro-data on home buyers' characteristics and employing a non-parametric hedonic pricing method, we identify households' individual preferences. We show that attitudes of higher income households towards RCs tend to be more negative, while those of foreign-born households are more positive. The WTP is also more negative for larger RCs. These results imply that when opening RCs, it is advisable to keep them relatively small and locate them in more ethnically diverse areas. |
| Keywords: | immigration, house prices, refugee centers, household preferences |
| JEL: | R31 E02 O18 |
| Date: | 2019–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20190075&r=all |
| By: | Italo Lopez Garcia (RAND); Nicole Maestas (Harvard Medical School and NBER); Kathleen J. Mullen (RAND) |
| Abstract: | Understanding how health decline influences retirement decisions is fundamental for the design of targeted policies that encourage working longer. While there is wide agreement on the relevance of age-related health decline for determining labor supply and retirement decisions, the process of how health deterioration affects labor supply remains a black box. This paper explores the match between individuals’ functional abilities and job demands in the national economy using a new methodology to measure work capacity. Specifically, we construct a one-dimensional measure of individuals’ work capacities by comparing an individual’s own ability levels to the levels needed to perform different occupations, using new data containing individuals’ ratings of the same 52 abilities included in the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database. We find that a one-unit increase in the fraction of jobs for a given education level that an individual can do — our measure of work capacity — is associated with a 15 to 21 percentage point increase in labor force participation, a 10 to 17 percentage point decrease in the percentage of respondents receiving SSDI benefits, a 7 to 10 percentage point increase in the subjective percent chance individuals will work longer, a 9 to 12 percentage point increase in the chance that retired individuals will return to the labor force, and a 17 to 25 percentage point increase in the chance that individuals with disabilities will return to the labor force. The magnitudes of these associations are all economically relevant and exist even when controlling for health status. |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp400&r=all |