| Abstract: |
OBJECTIVE: In this study we test whether perceived stability of employment and
perceived resilience to potential job loss affect fertility intentions, net of
individual level risk attitudes and considering variation in the local
macroeconomic conditions. BACKGROUND: The role of employment uncertainty as a
fertility driver has been explored in a number of studies with a limited set
of constructs, and with inconclusive results. A key reason for this
heterogeneous pattern is that scholars did not recognize the
multidimensionality and the prospective nature of employment uncertainty. We
address these oversights by considering two key dimensions of employment
uncertainty: perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to
potential job loss. METHOD: Our study is conducted using the newly-released
2017 OECD Italian Trustlab survey and its built-in module on self-assessed
employment uncertainty (N=521). We perform multivariate analysis using ordered
logistic regression. RESULTS: Perception of employment resilience is a
powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment
stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between
resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of
person-specific risk attitude and it does not depend on aggregate-level
variables, such as unemployment and fixed-term contract rates in the area of
residence. CONCLUSION: With this paper, we argue that the notion of resilience
is crucial for making sense of economic prospects in connection to fertility
planning. |