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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Lee, Ronald D. (University of California, Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Paul Samuelson made a series of important contributions to population theory for humans and other species, evolutionary theory, and the theory of age structured life cycles in economic equilibrium and growth. The work is highly abstract but much of it was intended to illuminate issues of compelling policy importance, such as declining fertility and population aging. While his work in population economics has been very influential, his work in population and evolution appears to have been largely overlooked, perhaps because he seldom published in demographic journals or went to population meetings. Here I discuss his many contributions in all these areas, but give particular attention to demographic aspects of his famous work on overlapping generation models, social security systems, and population growth. |
| Keywords: | Samuelson, overlapping generations, social security, population growth rate, reproductive value, population cycles, intergenerational transfers, predator-prey, altruism |
| JEL: | J11 J18 Q57 H55 D64 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12442&r=all |
| By: | Svend E. Hougaard Jensen; Thorsteinn Sigurdur Sveinsson; Gylfi Zoega |
| Abstract: | We find that segments of society who have shorter life expectancy can expect a lower retirement income and lifetime utility due to the longevity of other groups participating in the same pension scheme. Linking retirement age to average life expectancy magnifies the negative effect on the lifetime utility of those who suffer low longevity. Furthermore, when the income of those with greater longevity increases, those with shorter life expectancy become even worse off. Conversely, when the income of those with shorter life expectancy increases, they end up paying more into the pension scheme, which benefits those who live longer. The relative sizes of the low and high longevity groups in the population determine the magnitude of these effects. We calibrate the model based on data on differences in life expectancy of men and women and find that males suffer from a 10 percent drop in the amount of pension benefits from being forced to pay into the same scheme as females. |
| Keywords: | longevity, pension age, retirement, inequality |
| JEL: | E21 E24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7704&r=all |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; von Berlepsch, Viola |
| Abstract: | Does population diversity matter for economic development in the long-run? Is there a different impact of diversity across time? This paper traces the short-, medium-, and long-term economic impact of population diversity resulting from the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries to the United States (US). Using census data from 1880, 1900, and 1910, the settlement pattern of migrants across the counties of the 48 US continental states is tracked in order to construct measures of population fractionalization and polarization at county level. Factors which may have influenced both the individual settlement decision at the time of migration as well as county-level economic development in recent years are controlled for. The results of the analysis show that high levels of population fractionalization have a strong and positive influence on economic development in the short-, medium-, and long-run. High levels of polarization, by contrast, undermine development. Despite a stronger effect on income levels in the first 30 years, we find these relationships to be extremely long-lasting: counties with a more heterogeneous population composition over 130 years ago are significantly richer today, whereas counties that were strongly polarized at the time of the migration waves have endured persistent negative economic effects. |
| Keywords: | diversity; fractionalization; polarization; economic development; counties; USA; 269868 |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2018–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:91024&r=all |
| By: | Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Nezih Guner (Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros (CEMFI)); Karen A. Kopecky (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | The 19th and 20th centuries saw a transformation in contraceptive technologies and their take up. This led to a sexual revolution, which witnessed a rise in premarital sex and out-of-wedlock births, and a decline in marriage. The impact of contraception on married and single life is analyzed here both theoretically and quantitatively. The analysis is conducted using a model where people search for partners. Upon finding one, they can choose between abstinence, marriage, and a premarital sexual relationship. The model is confronted with some stylized facts about premarital sex and marriage over the course of the 20th century. Some economic history is also presented. |
| Keywords: | age of marriage, contraceptive technology, never-married population, number of partners, out-of-wedlock births, premarital sex, singles |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eag:rereps:31&r=all |