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on Demographic Economics |
| By: | Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of the fertility decline in Europe from 1830 to 1970 using a newly constructed dataset of linguistic distances between European regions. We find that the fertility decline resulted from a gradual diffusion of new fertility behavior from French-speaking regions to the rest of Europe. We observe that societies with higher education, lower infant mortality, higher urbanization, and higher population density had lower levels of fertility during the 19th and early 20th century. However, the fertility decline took place earlier and was initially larger in communities that were culturally closer to the French, while the fertility transition spread only later to societies that were more distant from the cultural frontier. This is consistent with a process of social influence, whereby societies that were linguistically and culturally closer to the French faced lower barriers to the adoption of new social norms and attitudes towards fertility control. |
| JEL: | J13 N13 O40 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25957&r=all |
| By: | Jäger, Philipp |
| Abstract: | The strong association between income and mortality raises the question whether more generous social security systems could improve poor people's health outcomes. Thus, in this paper, I analyze whether a major social security innovation, the introduction of social pensions targeted at poor elderly people in the late 19th-early 20th century, has reduced mortality rates of senior citizens. Therefore, I use a cross-country dataset spanning from 1870 to 1939 consisting of 13 countries of which 9 eventually implemented social pensions before World War II. Applying a difference-in-difference-in-difference as well as a regression discontinuity design, I find no evidence for a decline in elderly mortality due to the introduction of social pensions. Based on aggregate census data, I argue that social pensions have reduced elderly labor supply. The reduction is much smaller than social pension recipiency rates, though. These findings suggest that social pensions have raised elderly incomes which, however, did not translate into lower mortality. |
| Keywords: | pension,social security,elderly mortality |
| JEL: | H55 I18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:808&r=all |
| By: | Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia (Department of Historical Studies, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper reconstructs infant and child sex ratios, the number of boys per hundred girls, in Europe circa 1880. Contrary to previous interpretations arguing that there is little evidence of gender discrimination resulting in excess female mortality in infancy and childhood, the results suggest that this issue was much more important than previously thought, especially in Southern Europe. The unbalanced sex ratios observed in some regions are not due to random noise, female miss-reporting or sex-specific migration. Likewise, although geography, climate and population density influenced sex ratios, these factors cannot explain away the patterns of gender discrimination reported here. The actual nature of discrimination, either female infanticide, the abandonment of young girls and/or the unequal allocation of resources within families, however, remains unclear and surely varied by region. |
| Keywords: | Sex ratios, Infant and child mortality, Gender discrimination, Health |
| JEL: | I14 I15 J13 J16 N33 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0160&r=all |
| By: | Sun, Tianyu; Chand, Satish; Sharpe, Keiran |
| Abstract: | We empirically test the effect of ageing on housing prices. Our analysis shows that a decline in the fertility rate and an increase in longevity – the two main causes of an ageing population – have divergent effects on housing prices. This empirical finding helps us to reconcile a conflict which has lasted for 30 years in literature. We show that a decline in the fertility rate generally lowers housing prices because there are fewer workers in the population. At the same time, the workers and retirees react differently towards the impact of longer lifespans. In particular, the workers are urged to purchase more houses as a form of of saving and thus raise the prices, while the retirees tend to sell a greater fraction of the housing for extra funding. The conclusions correspond well with the Life Cycle Hypothesis and are drawn by using a semi-parametric method on an international panel data. |
| Keywords: | Ageing, Fertility, Longevity, Housing prices, Semi-parametric analysis |
| JEL: | C14 E31 J11 R21 |
| Date: | 2018–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94418&r=all |
| By: | Marie-Louise Leroux; Pierre Pestieau; Grégory Ponthiere |
| Abstract: | The study of optimal long-term care (LTC) social insurance is generally carried out under the utilitarian social criterion, which penalizes individuals who have a lower capacity to convert resources into well-being, such as dependent elderly individuals or prematurely dead individuals. This paper revisits the design of optimal LTC insurance while adopting the ex post egalitarian social criterion, which gives priority to the worst-off in realized terms (i.e. once the state of nature has been revealed). Using a lifecycle model with risk about the duration of life and risk about old-age dependence, it is shown that the optimal LTC social insurance is quite sensitive to the postulated social criterion. The optimal second-best social insurance under the ex post egalitarian criterion involves, in comparison to utilitarianism, higher LTC benefits, lower pension benefits, a higher tax rate on savings, as well as a lower tax rate on labor earnings. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, social insurance, fairness, mortality, compensation, egalitarianism |
| JEL: | J14 I31 H55 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7660&r=all |
| By: | Richard Blundell (University College London); Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Centre for Economics and Finance); David Goll (University College London); Costas Meghir (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of training in reducing the gender wage gap using the UK-BHPS which contains detailed records of training. Using policy changes over an 18 year period we identify the impact of training and work experience on wages, earnings and employment. Based on a lifecycle model and using reforms as a source of exogenous variation we evaluate the role of formal training and experience in defining the evolution of wages and employment careers, conditional on education. Training is potentially important in compensating for the effects of children, especially for women who left education after completing high school. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, wage gap, Earnings |
| JEL: | J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2019-040&r=all |
| By: | Barigozzi, Francesca (University of Bologna); Cremer, Helmuth (Toulouse School of Economics); Monfardini, Chiara (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Our model studies couples. time allocation and career choices, which are a¤ected by a social norm on gender roles in the family. Parents can provide two types of informal child care: basic care (feeding, changing children, baby-sitting) and quality care (activities that stimulate children.s social and cognitive skills). We obtain the following main results. Traditional mothers provide some informal basic care, whereas career mothers purchase full time formal basic care in the market. Informal basic care is too large and the group of career mothers is too small because of the social norm. Informal quality care is increasing in the couple.s income and is provided in larger amount by mothers. We test the model.s predictions for Italy using the most recent ISTAT "Use of Time" survey. In line with the model, mothers devote more time than fathers to both basic and quality informal care; more educated parents devote more time to quality informal care than less educated parents; more educated mothers spend more time in the labor market than less educated mothers. |
| Keywords: | social norms, basic and quality child care, women's career choices, gender gaps |
| JEL: | D13 H23 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12403&r=all |
| By: | Juan Carlos Conesa; Timothy J. Kehoe; Vegard M. Nygaard; Gajendran Raveendranathan |
| Abstract: | We develop and calibrate an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy with heterogeneous consumers who face idiosyncratic earnings and health risk to study the implications of exogenous trends in increasing college attainment, decreasing fertility, and increasing longevity between 2005 and 2100. While all three trends contribute to a higher old age dependency ratio, increasing college attainment has different macroeconomic implications because it increases labor productivity. Decreasing fertility and increasing longevity require the government to increase the average labor tax rate from 32.0 to 44.4 percent. Increasing college attainment lowers the required tax increase by 10.1 percentage points. The required tax increase is higher under general equilibrium than in a small open economy with a constant interest rate because the reduction in the interest rate lowers capital income tax revenues. |
| Keywords: | college attainment, aging, health care, taxation, general equilibrium |
| JEL: | H20 H51 H55 I13 J11 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2019-05&r=all |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Essex); Clarke, Damian (Universidad de Santiago de Chile); Mühlrad, Hanna (Lund University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | In this study we examine the passage of a reform to in-vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures in Sweden in 2003. Following publication of medical evidence showing that pregnancy success rates could be maintained using single rather than multiple embryo transfers, the single embryo transfer (SET) was mandated as the default IVF procedure. Using linked registry data for the period 1998-2007, we find that the SET reform was associated with a precipitous drop in the share of multiple births of 63%. This narrowed differences in health between IVF and non-IVF births by 53%, and differences in the labor market outcomes of mothers three years after birth by 85%. For first time mothers, it also narrowed the gap in maternal health between IVF and non-IVF births by 36%. Our findings imply that more widespread adoption of SET could lead to massive gains, reducing hospitalization costs and the foregone income of mothers and improving the long-run socioeconomic outcomes of children. This is important given that the share of IVF facilitated births exceeds 3% in several industrialized countries and is on the rise. |
| Keywords: | IVF; Fertility; Maternal health; Neonatal health; Career penalty; Human capital formation |
| JEL: | I11 I12 I38 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1289&r=all |