nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2019‒02‒25
four papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility" By Gregory Casey; Soheil Shayegh; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Martin Bunzl; Oded Galor; Ken Caldeira
  2. Mortality in Midlife for Subgroups in Germany By Haan, Peter; Hammerschmid, Anna; Schmieder, Julia
  3. Is there a motherhood penalty in academia? The gendered effect of children on academic publications By Lutter, Mark; Schröder, Martin
  4. Universal Childcare for the Youngest and the Maternal Labour Supply By Astrid Kunze; Xingfei Liu

  1. By: Gregory Casey; Soheil Shayegh; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Martin Bunzl; Oded Galor; Ken Caldeira
    Abstract: "We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behaviour. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economicdemographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damages decrease the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one specific mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic."
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Haan, Peter (DIW Berlin); Hammerschmid, Anna (DIW Berlin); Schmieder, Julia (DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: Case and Deaton (2015) document that, since 1998, midlife mortality rates are increasing for white non-Hispanics in the US. This trend is driven by deaths from drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related diseases, termed as deaths of despair, and by the subgroup of low-educated individuals. In contrast, average mortality for middle-aged men and women continued to decrease in several other high-income countries including Germany. However, average mortality rates can disguise important differences between subgroups and the phenomenon of increasing mortality rates might also be present for subpopulations in these countries. Hence, we analyze how mortality in midlife is changing for several important demographic subgroups in Germany over the 1990 to 2015 period with a focus on deaths of despair. Our results show a very clear pattern: We find that mortality rates declined between 1990 and 2015, with no increases in deaths of despair for any of the subgroups. Thus, our findings starkly contrast with those for the US.
    Keywords: mortality, lifetime inequality, causes of death, deaths of despair, Germany
    JEL: I10 I14 J11
    Date: 2019–01
  3. By: Lutter, Mark; Schröder, Martin
    Abstract: Based on data that tracks CV and publication records as well as survey information from sociologists in German academia, we examine the effects of parenthood on the publication output of male and female academics. Results indicate that having children leads to a significant decline in the number of publications by women, while not affecting the number of publications by men. We also find that the gendered effect of children on productivity hardly mitigates differences in publication output between men and women, as women still publish about 20 percent less than men after controlling for the adverse effects of children on productivity. We further find that the gendered effect of childbearing depends partly on prior levels of women's academic achievements, which suggests mechanisms of performance-driven self-selection. Lower-performing women tend to suffer a stronger motherhood penalty, while the publication output of more successful women (who have been granted academic awards) is not reduced through childbirth. The results indicate that women are better at managing the 'double burden' of parenthood and career if external, award-giving committees have bestowed prestige upon them and indicated their potential for a scientific career. Overall, these findings contribute to a better understanding of how to reduce the adverse effect of children on female publication output.
    Keywords: academic career,academic publications,children,gender gap,motherhood penalty,Benachteiligung von Müttern,Geschlecht,Kinder,wissenschaftliche Karrieren,wissenschaftliche Publikationen
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Astrid Kunze; Xingfei Liu
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether the expansion of childcare leads to an increase in the female labour supply. We measure female labour supply at both the extensive and intensive margin. For identification, we exploit a nationwide reform that expanded childcare for 1–2- year-olds in Norway. Our results reveal a significant increase in the overall employment of mothers in the target group, but only weak evidence of an increase in contracted hours of work. However, both adjustments are only short term following the reform. When we consider sub-groups of mothers more closely, we find substantial heterogeneity in the affected outcomes and the timing of these effects. In particular, when we exclude mothers on job-protected maternity leave and with currently zero hours of work from the target group, we estimate even larger effects on employment and now significant effects on actual hours of work. For mothers with more than one child, we find significant long-term effects of the reform on both employment and hours of work.
    Keywords: childcare, female labour supply, contracted hours, actual hours, causal effects
    JEL: J08 J13 J22
    Date: 2019

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