nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2019‒01‒28
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

  1. Taxing Families: The Impact of Child-related Transfers on Maternal Labor Supply By Anne Hannusch
  2. The rural exodus and the rise of Europe By Thomas Baudin; Robert Stelter; ;
  3. Childlessness and Economic Development: A Survey By Thomas Baudin; David de la Croix; Paula E. Gobbi;
  4. The changing nature of gender selection into employment over the Great Recession By Juan J. Dolado; Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa; Linas Tarasonis
  5. Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account By Mai Chi Dao; Callum Jones
  6. The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis By Alvarez-Dias, Marcos; D'Hombres, Beatrice; Ghisetti, Claudia; Pontarollo, Nicola; Dijkstra, Lewis
  7. Health, Cognition and Work Capacity Beyond the Age of 50 By Vandenberghe, Vincent

  1. By: Anne Hannusch
    Abstract: Childbirth causes persistent gender differences in labor force participation and the difference in employment rates of married women with and without pre-school children varies substantially across countries. To what extent can child-related transfers account for this differential? To answer this question, I develop a life-cycle model of joint labor supply, in which female human capital evolves endogenously and a fraction of households has access to informal childcare. I calibrate the model to the US and Denmark, two countries in which the gap in employment rates of women with and without pre-school children differs in sign and magnitude: the gap is 13.2% in the US and -3.7% in Denmark. After taking the labor income tax treatment of married couples and variation in childcare fees into account, I find that child-related transfers are key to explaining the positive gap in the US and the negative gap in Denmark. I show that this mechanism is quantitatively important to account for variation in the maternal participation gap across other European countries as well.
    Keywords: Maternal Labor Supply, Two-earner Households, Family Transfers, Taxation
    JEL: E62 H31 J12 J22
    Date: 2019–01
  2. By: Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); Robert Stelter (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research); ;
    Abstract: To assess the importance of the rural exodus in fostering the transition from stagnation to growth, we propose a unified model of growth and internal migrations. Using an original set of Swedish data, we identify the deep parameters of our model. We show that internal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to authorize an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities. We then compare the respective contribution of shocks on internal migration costs, infant mortality and inequalities in agricultural productivity to the economic take-off and the demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks on labor mobility generate larger delays in the take-off to growth compared to mortality shocks equivalent to the Black Death. Deepening inequalities of productivity in the agricultural sector, like it has been done by enclosure movements, contributes to accelerate urbanization at the cost of depressed economic growth.
    Keywords: Demographic transition, Industrialization, Rural exodus, Mortality differentials, Fertility differentials.
    JEL: J11 J13 O41
    Date: 2019–01
  3. By: Thomas Baudin (IÉSEG School of Management); David de la Croix (IRES, Université catholique de Louvain & CEPR, London); Paula E. Gobbi (ECARES, Université libre de Bruxelles & CEPR, London);
    Abstract: This paper provides an introduction to the analysis of childlessness, first by describing the stylized facts and the relevant literature, and then by proposing a theoretical framework. We show that both poverty-driven childlessness and opportunity-driven childlessness matter and are essential to a thorough understanding of childlessness as a socioeconomic phenomenon.
    Keywords: Childlessness, fertility, education, marriage, children, sterility, economic development, poverty-driven childlessness, opportunity-driven childlessness, female empowerment, childcare, Malthusian economy, educational homogamy, reproductive health, demographic economics, developed countries, developing countries, historical childlessness, quantity and quality of children, inequality
    JEL: J11 O11 O40
    Date: 2019–01
  4. By: Juan J. Dolado (European University Institute); Cecilia Garcia-Peñalosa (Aix-Marseille University, EHESS, CNRS, Central Marseille & AMSE); Linas Tarasonis (Vilnius University & Bank of Lithuania)
    Abstract: The Great Recession has strongly influenced employment patterns across skill and gender groups. This paper analyzes how the resulting changes in non-employment have affected selection into jobs and hence gender wage gaps. Using data for the European Union, we show that male selection into the labour market, traditionally disregarded, has become positive. This is particularly so in Southern Europe, where dramatic drops in male unskilled employment have taken place during the crisis. As regards female selection, traditionally positive, we document two distinct effects. An added-worker effect has increased female labour force participation and hence reduced selection in some countries. In others, selection has become even more positive as a result of adverse labour demand shifts in industries which are intensive in temporary work, a type of contract in which women are over-represented. Overall, our results indicate that selection has become more important among men and less so among women, thus changing traditional gender patterns and calling for a systematic consideration of male non-employment when studying gender wage gaps.
    Keywords: Sample selection, gender wage gaps, gender employment gaps
    JEL: J31
    Date: 2019–01–14
  5. By: Mai Chi Dao; Callum Jones
    Abstract: Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overlapping generations model where countries differ in their population growth and mortality risk. Besides exploring the implications of demographics for saving and the current account over the long-run, we also study how these might be affected by differences in the coverage and sustainability of old-age transfer schemes. The model predicts that population structure and life expectancy (which affects the need to save to meet old age consumption) affect current account levels, and that while countries with more generous unfunded transfer schemes tend to have lower saving and more capital inflows over the long-run, this effect may be dampened by natural limits (on taxation) of these schemes. The key predictions of the model are generally supported by a rich panel dataset.
    Keywords: Pensions;Demographic indicators;Current account balances;Current account surpluses;Capital flows;Aging;Demographics, Current Account Flows, External Imbalances, General
    Date: 2018–12–07
  6. By: Alvarez-Dias, Marcos (European Commission - JRC); D'Hombres, Beatrice (European Commission – JRC); Ghisetti, Claudia (European Commission – JRC); Pontarollo, Nicola (European Commission – JRC); Dijkstra, Lewis (European Commission)
    Abstract: This report studies population dynamics in Europe. Its purpose is threefold. First, the report offers a literature review of the main drivers of population growth. Second, an empirical analysis is carried out in order to unveil the determinants of population growth in EU sub-regions (NUTS3 level) over the period 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is employed to account for spatial dependence among neighbouring regions. Third, the existing evidence on the long-run relationship between economic and population growth is discussed, followed by an empirical assessment of the relationship between these two aggregates in Europe over the period 1960-2010. Time-series econometric tools are used for this analysis. The main findings of both the literature reviews and empirical analyses are discussed, along with their implications and future extensions.
    Keywords: population dynamics; population growth; spatial econometrics; time-series econometrics; spatial dependence; regional development
    JEL: C21 J11
    Date: 2018–11
  7. By: Vandenberghe, Vincent
    Abstract: The rising cost of old-age dependency in Europe and elsewhere invariably leads to reforms aimed at raising the effective age or retirement. But do older individuals have the health/cognitive capacity to work longer? Following Cutler et al. (2012), this paper asks how much older individuals could work if they worked as much as their younger (50-54) counterparts in similar health/with equal cognitive performance. Contrary to existing papers, this one uses international, European, comparable panel evidence available in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). It considers both physical health and cognition; and health consists of subjective and objective measures. Also, it examines the extensive and intensive margins of work (employment and hours): existing papers only consider the former. Results are essentially fivefold. First, declines in health significantly affect employment. Second, the impact on hours is statistical significant but of much smaller magnitude. People suffering from ill health rarely adjust hours; they rather stop working altogether. Third, cognition is not fundamentally affected by ageing, and it adds little to our capacity to predict how work capacity evolves with age. Fourth, identification issues exist and must be addressed. They comprise unobserved heterogeneity across respondents, justification bias or proxying/measurement errors regarding health. Finally, declining health/cognition explain at most 31% of the actual labour supply reduction between 50 and 70. This confirms the existence of a, currently largely underused, work capacity among older individuals.
    Keywords: Ageing,Health,Cognition,Labour Supply,Work Capacity
    JEL: J22 I10 J26
    Date: 2019

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