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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2018‒10‒08
five papers chosen by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung |
| By: | Alexander Bick (Arizona State University); Bettina Brüggemann (McMaster University); Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln (Goethe University Frankfurt); Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz (Goethe University Frankfurt) |
| Abstract: | We document the time-series of employment rates and hours worked per employed by married couples in the US and seven European countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK) from the early 1980s through 2016. Relying on a model of joint household labor supply decisions, we quantitatively analyze the role of non-linear labor income taxes for explaining the evolution of hours worked of married couples over time, using as inputs the full country- and year-specific statutory labor income tax codes. We further evaluate the role of consumption taxes, gender and educational wage premia, and the educational composition. The model is quite successful in replicating the time series behavior of hours worked per employed married woman, with labor income taxes being the key driving force. It does however capture only part of the secular increase in married women’s employment rates in the 1980s and early 1990s, suggesting an important role for factors not considered in this paper. We will make the non-linear tax codes used as an input into the analysis available as a user-friendly and easily integrable set of Matlab codes. |
| Keywords: | taxation, two-earner households, hours worked |
| JEL: | E60 H20 H31 J22 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-069&r=dem |
| By: | Cremer, Helmuth; Roeder, Kerstin |
| Abstract: | We study the taxation of couples when female wages do not re?ect their true productivity. We show that the expression for the marginal tax rates of the male spouses is the same as in a Mirrleesian world where wages re?ect true productivities. Marginal taxes for the female spouses are reduced because of a Pigouvian correction. Consequently, the wage discrimination pleads for a lower marginal tax on the female spouse. Furthermore, the distortion of a couples?tradeo¤ between male and female labor supply is the same as in a Mirrleesian world without a gender wage gap. It only depends on true productivities and not on wages. In other words, the tax system completely neutralizes the extra distortion introduced by the wedge between the female spouse?s wage and her true productivity. |
| Keywords: | Couples'income taxation; gender wage gap; optimal income taxation; household labor supply |
| JEL: | D10 H21 H31 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:32929&r=dem |
| By: | Kesternich, Iris; Siflinger, Bettina (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Smith, James P.; Steckenleiter, Carina |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses long-term effects of highly unbalanced sex ratios in Germany caused by World War II on fertility outcomes over the life cycle. By using Census data linked with individual biography data, we find that a permanent reduction in the number of men delayed women’s first birth. However, the effects crucially depend on at what age fertility of women is evaluated. While women with low sex ratios have fewer children at younger ages, they compensate at later ages. We also find substitution from the extensive towards the intensive margin. Mechanisms are marrying later, accepting lower quality matches and expanding the child-bearing period. |
| Keywords: | sex ratio; fertility; marriage; life cycle; World War II |
| JEL: | J10 J2 J13 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:477a3d49-f1af-45e9-a0e3-69d096522c3a&r=dem |
| By: | Yuqing Xing (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan); Bo Zhang (School of Economics, Peking University, Beijing) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how the technology progress of the South country affects the welfare of the North country in a free trade world. Using the standard Ricardian model of the North-South trade, we show that, import biased technological progress of the South will undermine the welfare of the North, once the cumulative technological progress of the South exceeds a threshold. The relative population size of the South to North affects the threshold. Generally, a relatively larger South country has a lower threshold and the technological difference between the two countries remains even beyond the threshold. To a certain extent, the findings of the paper offer an theoretical explanation about the concerns of rising China in an integrated world economy. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:18-10&r=dem |
| By: | Sun, Tianyu; Chand, Satish; Sharpe, Keiran |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of demographic changes on land prices in urban China using an Overlapping Generation (OLG) model. The model suggests that the rapid rise in land prices could be explained by the rise in per capita income and demographic changes. This finding is validated by fitting the historical data of China. We then simulate land price dynamics for China from 2000 to 2100. The simulation indicates that the rate of rising in land prices is softening. From 2035 to 2055, the effect of demographic changes on urban land prices in China will be close to zero. After 2055, the effect will turn to negative until the end of this century; however, a meltdown is unlikely. |
| Keywords: | Aging Population; OLG Model; Urban Land Prices; Forecast |
| JEL: | E21 E31 J11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89237&r=dem |