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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2018‒08‒27
four papers chosen by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung |
| By: | Claudia Goldin; Adriana Lleras-Muney |
| Abstract: | Females live longer than males in most parts of the world today. Among OECD nations in recent years, the difference in life expectancy at birth is around four to six years (seven in Japan). But have women always lived so much longer than men? The answer is that they have not. We ask when and why the female advantage emerged. We show that reductions in maternal mortality and fertility are not the reasons. Rather, we argue that the sharp reduction in infectious disease in the early twentieth century played a role. The primary reason is that those who survive most infectious diseases carry a health burden that affects organs, such as the heart, as well as impacting general well-being. We use new data from Massachusetts containing information on causes of death from 1887 to show that infectious diseases disproportionately affected females between the ages of 5 and 25. Increased longevity of women, therefore, occurred as the burden of infectious disease fell for all. Our explanation does not tell us why women live longer than men, but it does help understand the timing of the increase. |
| JEL: | J1 J16 N0 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24716&r=dem |
| By: | Kai-Uwe Müller; Katharina Wrohlich |
| Abstract: | Expanding public or publicly subsidized childcare has been a top social policy priority in many industrialized countries. It is supposed to increase fertility, promote children's development and enhance mothers' labor market attachment. In this paper, we analyze the causal effect of one of the largest expansions of subsidized childcare for children up to three years among industrialized countries on the employment of mothers in Germany. Identification is based on spatial and temporal variation in the expansion of publicly subsidized childcare triggered by two comprehensive childcare policy reforms. The empirical analysis is based on the German Microcensus that is matched to county level data on childcare availability. Based on our preferred specification which includes time and county fixed effects we find that an increase in childcare slots by one percentage point increases mothers' labor market participation rate by 0.2 percentage points. The overall increase in employment is explained by the rise in part-time employment with relatively long hours (20-35 hours per week). We do not find a change in full-time employment or lower part-time employment that is causally related to the childcare expansion. The effect is almost entirely driven by mothers with medium-level qualifications. Mothers with low education levels do not profit from this reform calling for a stronger policy focus on particularly disadvantaged groups in coming years. |
| Keywords: | childcare provision; mother's labor supply; generalized difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | J22 J13 H43 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1747&r=dem |
| By: | Juan Carlos Conesa (Stony Brook University); Akshar Saxena (Harvard University); Daniela Costa (Wharton); Gajendran Raveendranathan (McMaster University); Parisa Kamali (University of Minnesota); Timothy Kehoe (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic implications of an aging population. We calibrate the model along a transition path from 1950 to 2100 that features rising survival probabilities, an increasing share of college graduates, and rising healthcare costs. The aging of the population leads to increased government spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits. We find that the increase in the share of college graduates compensates for most of the increase in government spending. Consequently, taxes will only have to rise by a few percentage points to balance the budget in the future even if the current eligibility criteria and benefit levels for social insurance programs are preserved. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:930&r=dem |
| By: | Gauti B. Eggertsson; Manuel Lancastre; Lawrence H. Summers |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler, Poterba, Sheiner, and Summers (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between measures of population aging and per-capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by an effective lower bound on nominal rates as took place during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008-2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis. |
| JEL: | E0 E31 E32 E5 E52 E58 O4 O42 O47 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24902&r=dem |