nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2018‒07‒16
three papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

  1. Decreased Effectiveness of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan’s Aging Society By Yoshino, Naoyuki; Miyamoto, Hiroaki
  2. Physiological Aging around the World and Economic Growth By Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger
  3. Fertility Analysis with EU-SILC: A Quantification of Measurement Bias By Angela Greulich; Aurélien Dasré

  1. By: Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Miyamoto, Hiroaki (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We study how an aging population affects economic performance and the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households, workers, and retirees. We demonstrate that an increase in the proportion of working population increases aggregate output, consumption, and investment by increasing total labor supply in the long run. It also increases wages and reduces social security burden of the government. We also find that effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies is weakened when the proportion of retirees becomes larger. This is the reason why recent monetary policies cannot lift the Japanese economy from prolonged stagnation.
    Keywords: aging population; aging society; fiscal policy; monetary policy
    JEL: E52 E62 J11
    Date: 2017–05–09
  2. By: Dalgaard, Carl-Johan (University of Copenhagen); Hansen, Casper Worm (University of Copenhagen); Strulik, Holger (University of Goettingen)
    Abstract: As the composition of the world population gradually shifts towards older age groups, it becomes increasingly important to understand the ináuence of aging on macroeconomic outcomes of interest. Until now, however, it has been impossible to separate out the role played by demographics from the pure role of aging at the country level. Drawing on research in the Öelds of biology and medicine, the present study provides data on physiological aging. Our data shows that, over the last quarter of a century, the average person in the global labor force has not grown older in physiological terms. In an application of our panel dataset, we Önd evidence that accelerated physiological aging causally reduces labor productivity. Taken together, our analysis suggests that if productivity growth has deaccelerated in recent decades, physiological aging is unlikely to be a contributing force.Keywords: Physiological Aging; Economic Growth JEL Classification: O5; I15
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Aurélien Dasré (CRESPPA - Centre de recherches sociologiques et politiques de Paris - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)
    Abstract: The European Union Statistics on Income and Living Condition (EU-SILC) database is increasingly used in demographic analysis, due to its large country coverage, the availability of harmonized socioeconomic measures and the possibility to merge partners. However, so far there exists no comprehensive analysis of the representativeness of fertility behavior reported by EU-SILC. This paper quantifies the quality of fertility measures in EU-SILC. We compare several fertility measures obtained with EU-SILC to unbiased measures from the Human Fertility Database (HFD) for several European countries, by applying a longitudinal as well as a cross-sectional perspective. We show that EU-SILC underestimates completed fertility mainly because the questionnaire does not ask about the number of children ever born to a woman/man, and we identify significant socioeconomic differentials in this measurement bias. Measures of periodic fertility behavior are biased downward mainly due to attrition, while births of order one for ages 20-29 are particularly underreported. However, we find no evidence for socio-economic differentials in attrition. Our results suggest that for the majority of European countries, Eu-SILC can be used for demographic analysis when respecting the measures of precaution mentioned in this article. These contain for example applying a retrospective approach and differentiating by rotation groups when calculating aggregate measures of periodic fertility differentiated by socio-economic groups.
    Keywords: Fertility,EU-SILC,income and living conditions,data quality
    Date: 2017–01

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