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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2018‒06‒25
six papers chosen by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung |
| By: | Pilar García-Gómez; Sergi Jimenez-Martin; Judit Vall Castelló |
| Abstract: | Similar to other OECD countries, labor force participation rates of Spanish older workers were falling until the mid-1990s when there was a reversal in the trend. Labor force participation rates of Spanish men have been increasing since then, although at a slower pace than in other OECD countries. We explore to what extent several factors can be behind these trends. First, we conclude that the (old-age) social security system (except perhaps for the disability component) has played a marginal (at most) role on this reversal given the lack of major changes in social security benefits until the last set of reforms in 2011 and 2013. Second, we also rule out that changes in the health status of the population are responsible for the reversal of this trend. Finally, we find that aggregate economic conditions, and differences across cohorts in both the skill composition and the labor force attachment of wives are potential drivers of these observed changes. |
| JEL: | J14 J21 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24637&r=dem |
| By: | Geyer, Johannes (DIW); Haan, Peter (DIW); Hammerschmid, Anna (DIW); Peters, Michael (DIW) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the labor market and distributional effects of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) from 60 to 63 for women. We use a regression discontinuity design which exploits the immediate increase in the ERA between women born in 1951 and 1952. The analysis is based on the German micro census which includes about 370,000 households per year. We focus on heterogeneous labor market effects on the individual and on the household level and we study the distributional implications using net household income. In this respect we extend the previous literature which mainly studied employment effects on the individual level. Our results show sizable labor market effects which strongly differ by subgroups. We document larger employment effects for women who cannot rely on other income on the household level, e.g. women with a low income partner. The distributional analysis shows on average no significant effects on female or household income. This result holds as well for heterogeneous groups: Even for the most vulnerable groups, such as single women, women without higher education, or low partner income, we do not find significant reductions in income. One reason for this result is program substitution. |
| Keywords: | retirement age; pension reform; labor supply; early retirement; distributional effects; spillover effects; household; |
| JEL: | J14 J18 J22 J26 H31 |
| Date: | 2018–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:101&r=dem |
| By: | James Banks; Carl Emmerson; Gemma Tetlow |
| Abstract: | We document employment rates of older men and women in the UK over the last forty years. In both cases growth in employment since the mid 1990s has been stronger than for younger age groups. On average, older men are still less likely to be in work than they were in the mid 1970s although this is not true for those with low education. We highlight issues with using years of schooling as a measure of educational achievement for analysing labour market trends at older ages, not least because a large proportion of men who left school at young ages without any formal qualifications, have subsequently acquired some. Reforms – such as the abolition of the earnings test and rises in the female State Pension Age, have pushed up employment rates. But other factors – such as the shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pensions being offered by private sector employers and the growth in employment rates at younger ages among successive cohorts of women – are also important. We discuss the role of other cohort and economy-wide trends, highlighting that the proportion of older men and women employed in professional, managerial and technical occupations has been particularly strong. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24606&r=dem |
| By: | Takashi Oshio; Emiko Usui; Satoshi Shimizutani |
| Abstract: | Japan experienced increases in labor force participation (LFP) of the elderly in recent years, as have other advanced countries. In the present study, we overview the employment trend of the elderly in Japan, and examine what factors have contributed to its increase since the early 2000s. Improved health and longevity, increasing education levels, and a shift towards less physically demanding jobs have allowed the elderly to stay longer in the labor force. However, elderly employment rebound and its timing are more closely linked to changes in social security incentives, especially increases in the eligibility age for public pension benefits. More broadly, reduced generosity in social security programs since the mid-1980s has been a key driver of the long-term trend change in elderly employment. A series of social security reforms have helped utilize the elderly’s potential work capacity, accumulated due to improving health conditions and other favorable factors for LFP in the elderly. |
| JEL: | H55 J21 J26 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24614&r=dem |
| By: | Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt; Josselin Thuilliez |
| Abstract: | We develop a method to compare levels and trends in inequality in mortality in the United States and France in a similar framework. The comparison shows that while income inequality has increased in both the United States and France, inequality in mortality in France remained remarkably low and stable. In the United States, inequality in mortality increased for older groups (especially women) while it decreased for children and young adults. These patterns highlight the fact that despite the strong cross-sectional relationship between income and health, there is no necessary connection between changes in income inequality and changes in health inequality. |
| JEL: | I14 J1 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24623&r=dem |
| By: | OLIVERA Javier |
| Abstract: | The present paper estimates pension wealth inequality among elderly households for 26 EU countries by exploiting cross-sections of the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey. To assess the role of life expectancy inequalities on pension wealth, this paper estimates life tables per educational level with auxiliary data in order to capture socio-economic status (SES). This procedure also distinguishes mortality estimates by sex, birth cohort, and year. The results indicate that differential mortality due to SES increases pension wealth inequality. In most of the countries, this effect has decreased between 2006 and 2014, which means that SES inequalities in mortality are less important in explaining today?s pension wealth inequality. Gini re-centered influence function (RIF) regressions confirm the diminishing influence of tertiary education on pension wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | Pension wealth; Inequality; Europe; Mortality; Education; RIF regressions |
| JEL: | D31 H55 J14 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2018-10&r=dem |