nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2018‒06‒11
seven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

  1. Marriage, Labor Supply, and Home Production By Marion Goussé; Nicolas Jacquemet; Jean-Marc Robin
  2. Happily Ever After: Immigration, Natives' Marriage, and Fertility By Carlana, Michela; Tabellini, Marco
  3. Explaining inter-ethnic and inter-religious marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa By Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay; Elliott Green
  4. Did the Black Death Cause Economic Development by "Inventing" Fertility Restriction? By Jeremy Edwards; Sheilagh Ogilvie
  5. Female Empowerment and Male Backlash By Eleonora Guarnieri; Helmut Rainer
  6. Getting Life Expectancy Estimates Right for Pension Policy: Period versus Cohort Approach By Ayuso, Mercedes; Bravo, Jorge Miguel; Holzmann, Robert
  7. Who pays for the consumption of young and old? By Hippolyte D'Albis; Carole Bonnet; Xavier Chojnicki; Najat El Mekkaouide Freitas; Angela Greulich; Jérôme Hubert; Julien Navaux

  1. By: Marion Goussé (Département d'Economique, Université Laval - Université Laval); Nicolas Jacquemet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Jean-Marc Robin (Sciences Po Paris, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We develop a search model of marriage where men and women draw utility from private consumption and leisure, and from a non-market good that is produced in the home using time resources. We condition individual decisions on wages, education, and an index of family attitudes. A match-specific, stochastic bliss shock induces variation in matching given wages, education, and family values, and triggers renegotiation and divorce. Using BHPS (1991–2008) data, we take as given changes in wages, education, and family values by gender, and study their impact on marriage decisions and intra-household resource allocation. The model allows to evaluate how much of the observed gender differences in labor supply results from wages, education, and family attitudes. We find that family attitudes are a strong determinant of comparative advantages in home production of men and women, whereas education complementarities induce assortative mating through preferences.
    Keywords: structural estimation,Search-matching,bargaining,assortative mating,collective models,time uses,social norms,gender identity
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Carlana, Michela (Bocconi University); Tabellini, Marco (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the effects of immigration on natives' marriage, fertility, and family formation across US cities between 1910 and 1930. Instrumenting immigrants' location decision by interacting pre-existing ethnic settlements with aggregate migration flows, we find that immigration raised marriage rates, the probability of having children, and the propensity to leave the parental house for young native men and women. We show that these effects were driven by the large and positive impact of immigration on native men's employment and occupational standing, which increased the supply of "marriageable men". We also explore alternative mechanisms − changes in sex ratios, natives' cultural responses, and displacement effects of immigrants on female employment − and provide evidence that none of them can account for a quantitatively relevant fraction of our results.
    Keywords: immigration, marriage, fertility, employment
    JEL: J12 J13 J61 N32
    Date: 2018–04
  3. By: Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay (Queen Mary, University of London); Elliott Green (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Inter-cultural marriages have long been of great interest to social scientists who wish to examine how ethnic, religious, racial and other identities form and change over time. However, the vast majority of this research has been concentrated in developed countries. As such we undertake the first major examination into the causes and correlates of inter-ethnic and inter-religious marriage in contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa. We use Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) couples data in a series of multi-level logit models from up to 36 countries to document a number of findings. First, we show that inter-ethnic marriage rates are high, at 22.3% on average, and rising across Africa over the past 30 years, with rates approaching 50% for recent marriages in Gabon and Zambia and rising rates over time for all countries in our dataset. In contrast, however, we show that inter-religious marriage rates are much lower, at only 5%, and stagnant, with no country average higher than 15% and declining over time in a number of countries. Second, as expected from the literature on inter-cultural marriages in other contexts, we show that modernization variables such as urbanization, literacy/education, wealth and declines in polygamy and agricultural employment are significantly correlated with rising levels of inter-ethnic marriage; in contrast, the relationship between modernization and inter-religious marriage is much more ambiguous. Third, we show that inter-ethnic marriage is significantly correlated with higher age at marriage, being previously married and migration before marriage. Finally, we find no evidence that inter-married couples have fewer children, in contrast to findings elsewhere.
    Keywords: Ethnicity, Religion, Marriage, Sub-Saharan Africa, DHS data, Modernization
    JEL: J12 N37 O10
    Date: 2018–05
  4. By: Jeremy Edwards; Sheilagh Ogilvie
    Abstract: Voigtländer and Voth argue that the Black Death shifted England towards pastoral agriculture, increasing wages for unmarried women, thereby delaying female marriage, lowering fertility, and unleashing economic growth. We show that this argument does not hold. Its crucial assumption is inconsistent with the evidence: women wanting to do pastoral work after the Black Death did not have to remain unmarried, so improved pastoral opportunities did not necessitate later marriage. There is no consensus that late female marriage emerged after the Black Death. Furthermore, the relationship between pastoralism and female marriage age in England provides no support for this argument.
    Keywords: European marriage pattern, black death, land-labour ratio, arable and pastoral agriculture
    JEL: E02 J12 J13 N13 N33
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Eleonora Guarnieri; Helmut Rainer
    Abstract: Do policies and institutions that promote women’s economic empowerment have a long-term impact on intimate partner violence? We address this question by exploiting a natural experiment of history in Cameroon. From the end of WWI until 1961, the western territories of today’s Cameroon were arbitrarily divided between France and the United Kingdom, whose colonial regimes opened up divergent economic opportunities for women in an otherwise cul- turally and geographically homogeneous setting. Women in British territories benefited from a universal education system and gained opportunities for paid employment. The French colonial practice in these domains centered around educating a small administrative elite and investing in the male employment-dominated infrastructure sector. Using a geographical regression discontinuity design, we show that women in former British territories are 30% more likely to be victims of domestic violence than those in former French territories. Among a broad set of possible channels of persistence, only one turns out statistically significant and quantitatively important: women in former British territories are 30% more likely to be in paid employment than their counterparts in former French areas. These results are incompatible with household bargaining models that incorporate domestic violence but they are accommodated by theories of male backlash.
    Keywords: colonization, female economic empowerment, intimate partner violence
    JEL: J12 J16 N37 Z13
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Ayuso, Mercedes (University of Barcelona); Bravo, Jorge Miguel (Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Holzmann, Robert (University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: In many policy areas it is essential to use the best estimates of life expectancy, but such estimates are vital to most areas of pension policy – from indexed access age and the calculation of initial benefits to the financial sustainability of pension schemes and the operation of their balancing mechanism. This paper presents the conceptual differences between static period and dynamic cohort mortality tables, estimates the differences in life expectancy between both tables using data from Portugal and Spain, and compares official estimates of both life expectancy estimates for Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States for 1981, 2010 and 2060. This comparison reveals major differences between period and cohort life expectancy in and between countries and across years. Using measures of period instead of cohort life expectancy creates an implicit subsidy for individuals of 30 percent or more, with potentially stark consequences on the financial sustainability of pension schemes. These and other implications for pension policy are explored and next steps suggested.
    Keywords: cross-country comparison, Lee-Carter, life expectancy indexation, balancing mechanism
    JEL: D9 G22 H55 J13 J14 J16
    Date: 2018–04
  7. By: Hippolyte D'Albis (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Carole Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Xavier Chojnicki (LEM - Lille - Economie et Management - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Najat El Mekkaouide Freitas (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Angela Greulich (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Jérôme Hubert (LEM - Lille - Economie et Management - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Navaux (University of Ottawa [Ottawa])
    Abstract: This article provides a comprehensive overview of how the funding of consumption at different ages is shared between the State, the individual and the family. By applying the National Transfer Accounts method for France, we developed a unique database to analyze how the funding of consumption is secured at each age, how its structure has changed over time, and how the consumption is financed in France compared to that of a set of other developed countries. We find that the elderly in France finance themselves increasingly by their own means, even though public funding of this age group remains significant in France in comparison to other countries. Conversely, the young rely more and more on the State to finance their consumption. Within our sample, France is the country where the young benefited most from public transfers.
    Keywords: Generational Economy,National Transfer Accounts,Inter- Generational Equity,Private and Public Consumption
    Date: 2018–05

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