nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2018‒05‒21
five papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

  1. Job Vacancies and Immigration: Evidence from Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami By Jason Anastasopoulos; George J. Borjas; Gavin G. Cook; Michael Lachanski
  2. Trends in Employment and Social Security Incentives in the Spanish Pension System: 1980-2016 By Pilar Garcia-Gomez; Silvia Garcia-Mandico; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Judit Vall-Castello
  3. The contribution of migration to the dynamics of the labour force in OECD countries: 2005-2015 By Gilles Spielvogel; Michela Meghnagi
  4. Women and Work in India: Descriptive Evidence and a Review of Potential Policies By Fletcher, Erin K.; Pande, Rohini; Troyer Moore, Charity
  5. The impact of women's age at marriage on own and spousal labor market outcomes in India: causation or selection? By Dhamija, Gaurav; Roychowdhury, Punarjit

  1. By: Jason Anastasopoulos; George J. Borjas; Gavin G. Cook; Michael Lachanski
    Abstract: How does immigration affect labor market opportunities in a receiving country? This paper contributes to the voluminous literature by reporting findings from a new (but very old) data set. Beginning in 1951, the Conference Board constructed a monthly job vacancy index by counting the number of help-wanted ads published in local newspapers in 51 metropolitan areas. We use the Help-Wanted Index (HWI) to document how immigration changes the number of job vacancies in the affected labor markets. Our analysis begins by revisiting the Mariel episode. The data reveal a marked decrease in Miami’s HWI relative to many alternative control groups in the first 4 or 5 years after Mariel, followed by recovery afterwards. We find a similar initial decline in the number of job vacancies after two other supply shocks that hit Miami over the past few decades: the initial wave of Cuban refugees in the early 1960s, as well as the 1995 refugees who were initially detoured to Guantanamo Bay. We also look beyond Miami and estimate the generic spatial correlations that dominate the literature, correlating changes in the HWI with immigration across metropolitan areas. These correlations consistently indicate that more immigration is associated with fewer job vacancies. The trends in the HWI seem to most strongly reflect changing labor market conditions for low-skill workers (in terms of both wages and employment), and a companion textual analysis of help-wanted ads in Miami before and after the Mariel supply shock suggests a slight decline in the relative number of low-skill job vacancies.
    JEL: J6 J61 J63
    Date: 2018–05
  2. By: Pilar Garcia-Gomez; Silvia Garcia-Mandico; Sergi Jiménez-Martín; Judit Vall-Castello
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the association between financial incentives and retirement decisions using aggregate data for over four decades in Spain. We calculate an implicit tax rate on remaining in employment for an additional year and examine its correlation with employment rates for older workers. The results suggest that financial incentives play a role in explaining the retirement patterns of both employed and unemployed workers.
    Date: 2018–05
  3. By: Gilles Spielvogel; Michela Meghnagi
    Abstract: This paper presents the methodology as well as the results of the joint OECD-EC project Migration-Demography Database: A monitoring system of the demographic impact of migration and mobility. The objective of the project is to evaluate the contribution of migration to past and future labour market dynamics across OECD countries. After assessing the role of migration over the last five to 10 years in shaping the occupational and educational composition of the labour force, this project looks at the potential contribution of migration to the labour force in a range of alternative scenarios. This paper presents the results from the first part of the project: it focuses on the changes that have taken place in the last 10 years and studies how migration flows have contributed to the dynamics of the labour force, in particular in comparison to other labour market entries. It also analyses the contribution of migration in specific skills categories and in specific occupations.
    Keywords: Education, Labour force, Migration, Occupations, Working-age population
    JEL: F22 J11 J61
    Date: 2018–05–16
  4. By: Fletcher, Erin K. (Harvard University); Pande, Rohini (Harvard University); Troyer Moore, Charity (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Sustained high economic growth since the early 1990s has brought significant change to the lives of Indian women, and yet female labor force participation has stagnated at under 30%, and recent labor surveys even suggest some decline since 2005. Using a nationally representative household survey, we lay out five descriptive facts about female labor force participation in India that help identify constraints to higher participation. First, there is significant demand for jobs by women currently not in the labor force. Second, willing female non-workers have difficulty matching to jobs. Third, obtaining vocational training is correlated with a higher likelihood of working among women. Fourth, women are more likely to be working in sectors where the gender wage gap and unexplained wage gap, commonly attributed to discrimination, is higher. Finally, female-friendly policies, including quotas, are correlated with higher female participation in some key sectors. Combining these facts with a review of the literature, we map out important areas for future investigation and highlight how policies such as employment quotas and government initiatives focused on skilling and manufacturing should be better investigated and leveraged to increase women’s economic activity.
    Date: 2017–12
  5. By: Dhamija, Gaurav; Roychowdhury, Punarjit
    Abstract: The labor market impacts of women's age at marriage have recently received significant attention from social scientists. The focus of this literature, however, has been the developed world and almost nothing is known about how a delay in marriage affects labor market prospects of women in developing countries. This paper addresses this gap in the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive assessment of the relationship between women's age at marriage and own as well as spousal labor market outcomes specifically in context of a developing country. Using nationally representative household data from India, we find evidence of positive effects of women's age at marriage on their own and their spouses' labor market outcomes. To examine whether these effects are causal or arise due to selection into marriage, we use an instrumental variables-based empirical strategy that utilizes variation in age at menarche to obtain exogenous variation in women's age at marriage. Our results indicate that the positive effects of age at marriage of women on own as well spousal labor market outcomes are not causal and arise purely due to selection. The results are robust to addressing biases due to nonrandom selection of individuals into labor force. Our findings shed new light on theories of labor market in developing countries specifically through the lens of marriage.
    Keywords: Age at Marriage, India, Instrumental Variables, Labor Market Outcomes, Selection, Women
    JEL: J12 J16 J22 J31 O12
    Date: 2018–05–05

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