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on Demographic Economics |
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Issue of 2018‒05‒07
five papers chosen by Héctor Pifarré i Arolas Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung |
| By: | de la Croix, David; Pommeret, Aude |
| Abstract: | Having children is like investing in a risky project. Postponing birth is like delaying an irreversible investment. It has an option value, which depends on its costs and benefits, and in particular on the additional risks motherhood brings. We develop a parsimonious theory of childbearing postponement along these lines. We derive its implications for asset accumulation, income, optimal age at first birth, and childlessness. The structural parameters are estimated by matching the predictions of the model to data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth NLSY79. The uncertainty surrounding income growth is shown to increase with childbearing, and this increase is stronger for more educated people. This effect alone can explain why the age at first birth and the childlessness rate both increase with education. We use the model to simulate two hypothetical policies. Providing free medically assisted reproduction technology does not affect the age at first birth much, but lowers the childlessness rate. Insuring mothers against income risk is powerful in lowering the age at first birth. |
| Keywords: | Assisted reproduction technology; Career uncertainty; Late parenthood; Real option |
| JEL: | D91 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12884&r=dem |
| By: | Ryuta Ray Kato (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of stimulated female labor supply on the Japanese economy as well as the government fiscal imbalance within a numerical dynamic general equilibrium model with multiple overlapping generations, particularly by paying attention to females' time costs of child rearing and elderly care in a graying Japan. Several numerical results indicate that even complete elimination of females' time costs of child rearing and elderly care stimulates the total GDP only by 1 percent. If complete elimination of time costs occurs in accordance with no gender gap in wage profiles, then the total GDP expands by 4 percent. The results also suggest importance of government policies not only to stimulate female labor force participation but also to improve human capital accumulation of females to reduce a gender gap in wage profiles. |
| Keywords: | Female Labor Supply, Childcare, Child Allowance, Elderly Care, Public Pension, Long-Term Care Insurance, Population Aging, Japan, Simulation |
| JEL: | C68 H51 E62 H55 J16 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2017_04&r=dem |
| By: | Carole Bonnet; Bertrand Garbinti; Anne Solaz |
| Abstract: | Though shared custody arrangements after divorce are more and more frequent in many countries, little is known about their economic consequences for parents. By relaxing family time constraints, does shared custody help divorced mothers return to work more easily? This article analyses to what extent the type of child custody arrangement affects mothers' labour market behaviours after divorce. Using a large sample of divorcees from an exhaustive French administrative income-tax database, and taking advantage of the huge territorial discrepancies observed in the proportion of shared custody, we correct for the possible endogeneity of shared custody. As it turns out, the probability of being employed is 16 percentage points higher for mothers with shared custody arrangements compared to those having sole physical custody, with huge heterogeneous effects: larger positive effects are observed for previously inactive women, for those belonging to the lowest income quintiles before divorce, for those with a young child, and for those who have three or more children. Shared custody is particularly helpful for women who are far removed from the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Divorce, Child custody, Shared custody, Labour supply |
| JEL: | J12 J18 J22 K36 |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sticas:/209&r=dem |
| By: | Krueger, Dirk; Wu, Chunzan |
| Abstract: | We show that a calibrated life-cycle two-earner household model with endogenous labor supply can rationalize the extent of consumption insurance against shocks to male and female wages, as estimated empirically by Blundell, Pistaferri and Saporta-Eksten (2016) in U.S. data. With additively separable preferences, 43% of male and 23% of female permanent wage shocks pass through to consumption, compared to the empirical estimates of 34% and 20%. With non-separable preferences the model predicts more consumption insurance, with pass-through rates of $29% and $16%. Most of the consumption insurance against permanent male wage shocks is provided through the labor supply response of the female earner. |
| Keywords: | Bewley Models; Consumption Insurance; Labor Supply |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12828&r=dem |
| By: | Aleksandra Kolasa (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Soon after the start of the transition to market economy in the early 1990s, Poland has experienced both a dramatic decline in the fertility rate and an increase in the share of students among young high-school graduates. These two processes significantly changed the age structure of the population and average income characteristics of households. Using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households and uninsured income shocks I try to assess the impact of these demographic and educational changes on the Polish economic performance and inequalities. I find that in the long term the positive effects of educational transition on output per capita more than offset the negative impact of lower fertility, but the outcome strongly depends on the adjustments in the structure of labor demand. I also show that the educational transition increases income and consumption inequalities, while the demographic transition decreases inequality in assets. |
| Keywords: | population aging, educational transition, inequalities, models with heterogeneous agents |
| JEL: | J11 D31 I24 D58 J26 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:281&r=dem |