nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2018‒03‒05
nine papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

  1. Women's Empowerment, the Gender Gap in Desired Fertility, and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries By Doepke, Matthias; Tertilt, Michèle
  2. Wages and Family Time Allocation By THELOUDIS Alexandros
  3. Effects of Parental Leave Policies on Female Career and Fertility Choices By Shintaro Yamaguchi
  4. Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Workers in Spain 1980-2015 By Pilar García-Gómez; Sergi Jiménez Martín; Judit Vall Castelló
  5. A Sharing Model of the Household: Explaining the Deaton-Paxson Paradox and Computing Household Indifference Scales By Gutierrezy, Federico H.
  6. Skills, Population Aging, and the Pattern of Trade By Gu, Ke; Stoyanov, Andrey
  7. Do Retirement Savings Increase in Response to Information About Retirement and Expected Pensions? By Mathias Dolls; Philipp Dörrenberg; Andreas Peichl; Holger Stichnoth
  8. Are CEOs More Likely to Be First-Borns? By Custodio, Claudia; Siegel, Stephan
  9. Shaking Up the Equilibrium: Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Immigration By Ager, Philipp; Hansen, Casper Worm; Lønstrup, Lars

  1. By: Doepke, Matthias; Tertilt, Michèle
    Abstract: We document evidence on preferences for childbearing in developing countries. Across countries, men usually desire larger families than women do. Within countries, we find wide dispersion in spouses' desired fertility: there are many couples whose ideal family size differs by five children or more. This disagreement between spouses suggests that the extent to which women are empowered should matter for fertility choices. We point to evidence at both the macro and micro levels that this is indeed the case. We conclude that taking account of household bargaining and women's empowerment in analyses of fertility is an important challenge for research.
    Keywords: desired fertility; marital bargaining; Women's Empowerment
    JEL: J12 J13 J16 O10
    Date: 2018–01
  2. By: THELOUDIS Alexandros
    Abstract: This paper examines changes in married people's allocation of time since 1980, a period in which female labor supply increased substantially, men's share of household work rose, and the gender wage gap narrowed down. I develop a life-cycle collective household model for market and non-market work, consumption and asset accumulation, which also features lack of commitment to lifetime marriage. Wages in the model shift intra-family bargaining power and induce bargaining effects on outcomes in addition to standard income and substitution effects. I estimate gender-specific preferences and how intra-family bargaining power changes with a narrowing gender gap using data from the PSID. The results suggest that a narrowing gender gap improved women's bargaining power in the family resulting in a shift of household work to their husbands. It also contributed to the increase in female labor market participation. If the gender gap is counterfactually eliminated, the proportion of women in full-time work rises throughout the lifecycle to match approximately that of men. The increase comes from women who cut down household chores and enter the labor market when they previously did not participate.
    Keywords: Life-cycle collective model; home production; lack of commitment; gender wage gap; bargaining effects; equal pay; simulated method of moments; PSID
    JEL: D12 D13 D91 J22
    Date: 2018–02
  3. By: Shintaro Yamaguchi
    Abstract: This paper constructs and estimates a dynamic discrete choice structural model of labor supply, occupational choice, and fertility in the presence of parental leave legislation. The estimated structural model is used for an ex ante evaluation of parental leave expansions that change the duration of job protection and/or the replacement rate of the cash benefit. Counterfactual simulation results indicate that a one-year job protection significantly increased maternal employment and earnings, but extending it from one to three years and offering cash benefits have little effect. Overall, parental leave policies have little effect on fertility. I also find that policy effects are stronger for younger cohorts who observe a policy change several years before childbearing, because they adjust their career paths accordingly as soon as the policy change.
  4. By: Pilar García-Gómez; Sergi Jiménez Martín; Judit Vall Castelló
    Abstract: Similar to other OECD countries, labor force participation rates of Spanish older workers were falling until the mid-1990s when there was a reversal in the trend. Labor force participation rates of Spanish men have been increasing since then, although at a slower pace than in other OECD countries. We explore to what extent several factors can be behind these trends. First, we conclude that the (old-age) social security system (except perhaps for the disability component) has played a marginal (at most) role on this reversal given the lack of major changes in Social Security Benefits until the last set of reforms in 2011 and 2013. Second, we also rule out that changes in the health status of the population or aggregate economic conditions are responsible for the reversal of this trend. Finally, we find that differences across cohorts in both the skill composition and the labor force attachment of wives are potential drivers of these observed changes.
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Gutierrezy, Federico H.
    Abstract: This paper presents a new model of the household that is able to explain a variety of consumption patterns that existing models cannot describe, most notably, those associated with the Deaton and Paxson (1998) paradox. The most distinctive feature of this model is the presence of common-pool goods (rival and non-excludable) previously ignored in the literature. Under regularity conditions, the model can be interpreted as a hybrid between non-cooperative and a collective models of the household. Empirically, the paper revisits the Deaton-Paxson paradox exploiting household splits in longitudinal data and computes the elusive indifference scales coefficients.
    Keywords: sharing model,collective model,intra-household allocation,Deaton-Paxson paradox,household economies of scale,indifference scales
    JEL: D13 J12 O15
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Gu, Ke; Stoyanov, Andrey
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate a particular mechanism through which differences in demographic composition across countries affect international trade flows. Some cognitive functions are known to vary across the adult life span, and in particular the ability to update skills and adapt to changes in working conditions. As a country's population is getting older, it becomes increasingly difficult for firms to find workers with up-to-date skills. As a result, countries with aging populations will start losing comparative advantage in industries that rely heavily on workers' ability to adapt to frequent changes in working conditions. We test this hypothesis and find robust empirical evidence for a significant negative effect of population aging on comparative advantage of a country in industries which are intensive in skill adaptability of the labor force, in both the cross-sectional and the dynamic panel data sets.
    Keywords: worker adaptability, comparative advantage, population aging
    JEL: F14 F16 J11
    Date: 2018–01–31
  7. By: Mathias Dolls; Philipp Dörrenberg; Andreas Peichl; Holger Stichnoth
    Abstract: How can retirement savings be increased? We explore a unique policy change in the context of the German pension system to study this question. As of 2005 (with a phase-in period between 2002-04), the German pension administration started to send out annual letters providing detailed and comprehensible information about the pension system and individual expected public pension payments. This reform did not change the level of pensions, but only provided information to individuals about their expected pension payments. Using German tax return data, we exploit an age discontinuity to identify the effect of these letters on the behavior of individuals. We find an increase in tax-deductible private retirement savings and provide evidence that this is not due to a crowding-out of other forms of savings. We also show that labor earnings, i.e. the most direct way to increase public pensions, increase after receiving the letter.
    Keywords: pensions, savings, information letters, earnings
    JEL: H55 H24 D14
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Custodio, Claudia; Siegel, Stephan
    Abstract: We investigate the link between birth order and the career outcome of becoming Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of a company. We find that CEOs are more likely to be the first-born, i.e., oldest, child of their family. This result holds for family firms, where traditionally the oldest child is appointed to run the family business, but also for non-family firms. We also find that CEOs are significantly less likely to have older brothers (relative to younger brothers) than older sisters (relative to younger sisters). The advantage of being first-born seems to decay over time, consistent with changing family structures and rearing practices as well as changing social norms.
    Keywords: birth order; CEO; family firm; first born; rearing environment; upbringing
    Date: 2018–01
  9. By: Ager, Philipp (Department of Business and Economics); Hansen, Casper Worm (University of Copenhagen); Lønstrup, Lars (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper examines the long-run effects on the spatial distribution of economic activity caused by historical shocks. Using variation in the potential damage intensity of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake across cities in the American West, we show that more severely affected cities experienced lower population growth relative to less affected cities after the earthquake. This negative effect persisted until the late 20th century. The earthquake diverted migrants to less affected areas in the region, which, together with reinforcing dynamic agglomeration effects from scale economies, left a long-lasting mark on the location of economic activity in the American West.
    Keywords: Economic geography; Location of economic activity; Migration; Natural disasters
    JEL: O15 O40 R11 R12
    Date: 2018–02–12

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