nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2018‒02‒26
eleven papers chosen by
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas
Max-Planck-Institut für demografische Forschung

  1. Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net By Hamish Low; Costas Meghir; Luigi Pistaferri; Alessandra Voena
  2. Free Daycare and its Effects on Children and their Families By Busse, Anna; Gathmann, Christina
  3. Parental Leaves and Female Skill Utilization: Evidence from PIAAC By KAWAGUCHI Daiji; TORIYABE Takahiro
  4. If Not Now, When? The Timing of Childbirth and Labour Market Outcomes By Picchio, Matteo; Pigini, Claudia; Staffolani, Stefano; Verashchagina, Alina
  5. Grandchildren and Their Grandparents' Labor Supply By Rupert, Peter; Zanella, Giulio
  6. What accounts for the increase in female labor force participation in Spain By Osuna, Victoria
  7. Intertemporal Labor Supply: A Household Collective Approach By Molina, José Alberto; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Velilla, Jorge
  8. Women's Inheritance Rights Reform and the Preference for Sons in India By Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Brulé, Rachel; Roy, Sanchari
  9. The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market By Guido Matias Cortes; Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu
  10. Intimate Partner Violence and the Business Cycle By Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Kambhampati, Uma; Rawlings, Samantha; Siddique, Zahra
  11. Looking behind the financial cycle: the neglected role of demographics By Alessandro Ferrari

  1. By: Hamish Low (University Cambridge); Costas Meghir (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Luigi Pistaferri (Stanford University, NBER, CEPR and SIEPR); Alessandra Voena (University of Chicago, NBER, CEPR and BREAD)
    Abstract: The 1996 PRWORA reform introduced time limits on the receipt of welfare in the United States. We use variation by state and across demographic groups to provide reduced form evidence showing that such limits led to a fall in welfare claims (partly due to \banking” benefits for future use), a rise in employment, and a decline in divorce rates. We then specify and estimate a life-cycle model of marriage, labor supply and divorce under limited commitment to better understand the mechanisms behind these behavioral responses, carry out counterfactual analysis with longer run impacts and evaluate the welfare effects of the program. Based on the model, which reproduces the reduced form estimates, we show that among low educated women, instead of relying on TANF, single mothers work more, more mothers remain married, some move to relying only on food stamps and, in ex-ante welfare terms, women are worse off.
    Keywords: Time limits, Welfare reform, Life-cycle, Marriage and divorce
    JEL: D91 H53 J12 J21
    Date: 2018–02
  2. By: Busse, Anna (Heidelberg University); Gathmann, Christina (Heidelberg University)
    Abstract: Many governments invest substantial public funds to foster early childhood education. And yet, there are still many open questions who responds to and who benefits from public investments into early childcare. We use the introduction of free public daycare in German states to analyze its effects on children and their families. Our results suggest that effects of the policy differ by child age, gender and socio-economic status. Free daycare increases attendance among 2-3 year olds with little response among older children. Yet, even with access to free daycare, we find few effects on maternal labor supply. Responses are generally stronger for poorer households and other vulnerable families. Child development, in turn, shows gender-specific effects that are in part explained by the differential choices parents of boys make compared to parents of girls.
    Keywords: childcare, labor supply, family policy, child outcomes
    JEL: J13 J22 J18
    Date: 2018–01
  3. By: KAWAGUCHI Daiji; TORIYABE Takahiro
    Abstract: Most developed countries adopt parental leave policies to promote women's labor force participation without sacrificing family formation. Studies find that short-term parental leaves for women increase the time spent at home and promote their return to the labor force after childbearing, but some studies point out that long-term parental leaves hinder the career advancement of high-skilled women. This paper analyzes heterogeneous impacts of parental leave policies on women's skill-use intensity by skill level, drawing on rich information on individual skill and skill-use intensity available from the micro data of the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), which covers 30 countries. The results show that longer parental leaves narrow the gender gap in skill-use intensity among low-skilled workers but widen it among high-skilled workers. This finding is robust after controlling for international differences in gender norms and labor market institutions and allowing for country fixed effects. The findings corroborate with the claim that a longer parental leave period suppresses the career advancement of high-skilled women.
    Date: 2018–01
  4. By: Picchio, Matteo (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona); Pigini, Claudia (Marche Polytechnic University); Staffolani, Stefano (Marche Polytechnic University); Verashchagina, Alina (Marche Polytechnic University)
    Abstract: We study the effect of childbirth and its timing on female labour market outcomes in Italy. The impact on yearly labour earnings and fraction of time at work is traced up to 21 years since school completion by estimating a factor analytic model with dynamic selection into treatments. We find that childbearing, especially the first delivery, negatively affects female labour supply. Women having their first child soon after school completion are able to catch up with childless women after about 10 years. The timing matters, with minimal negative consequences on yearly earnings (fraction of days at work) observed if the first child is delayed up to 7–12 (10–12) years after exiting formal education.
    Keywords: female labour supply, fertility, discrete choice models, dynamic treatment effect, factor analytic model
    JEL: C33 C35 J13 J22
    Date: 2018–01
  5. By: Rupert, Peter (University of California, Santa Barbara); Zanella, Giulio (University of Bologna)
    Abstract: Working-age grandparents supply large amounts of child care, an observation that raises the question of how having grandchildren affects grandparents' own labor supply. Exploiting the unique genealogical design of the PSID and the random variation in the timing when the parents of first-born boys and girls become grandparents, we estimate a structural labor supply model and find a negative effect on employed grandmother's hours of work of about 30% that is concentrated near the bottom of the hours distribution, i.e., among women less attached to the labor market. Implications for the evaluation of child care and parental leave policies are discussed.
    Keywords: labor supply, grandparents, child care
    JEL: D19 J13 J14 J22
    Date: 2017–12
  6. By: Osuna, Victoria
    Abstract: Over the last three decades, Spanish female labor force participation (LFP) has tremendously increased, particularly, that of married women. At the same time, the income tax structure, the fiscal treatment of families, policies to reconcile family and work, and the education distribution of married couples have substantially changed. By contrast, the gender wage gap has remained quite stable. In this paper the author investigates the relevance of these factors in accounting for the growth in Spanish married women labor force participation from 1994 to 2008. For that purpose, she uses Kaygusuz (Taxes and female labor supply, 2010) model of household labor market participation, and data from Eurostat to calibrate the model and evaluate its performance. The model successfully accounts for the rise in aggregate female labor force participation, and matches hours worked by males and females. The model is also able to replicate the pattern of female labor force participation by age and education. From this analysis we can conclude that changes in tax rates and in the education distribution are the main factors behind the increase in female LFP during the late nineties, while changes in child care costs and earning profiles are mainly responsible for the subsequent growth in the 2000s.
    Keywords: female labor force participation,gender wage gap,income tax,educational distribution,wage profiles,child care costs
    JEL: J11 J12 J13 J22 J31
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Velilla, Jorge (University of Zaragoza)
    Abstract: This paper proposes an extension of the collective model for labor supply developed by Chiappori, Fortin and Lacroix (2002) to an intertemporal setting. We first develop a theoretical model to analyze the intra-household distribution of wealth in a multi-period framework, with a focus on labor supply and marriage markets. The model allows us to derive a sharing rule for non-labor income under a set of testable conditions. Second, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from years 1997 to 2015, we estimate the model using a semi-log parametrization of labor supply. Our empirical results do not reject the restrictions of the model, and point to the validity of the collective framework in an intertemporal setting. We show that wages are positively related to household labor supply, although cross and lagged effects show negative correlates. Furthermore, the ability of wives to negotiate the intra-household allocation of non-labor income is mainly driven by wages, with wives behaving altruistically, and husbands egoistically. Sex ratios appear to be nonsignificant in this relationship, although counteracting effects between labor and marriage markets may influence estimates.
    Keywords: household labor supply, collective model, intra household behavior, sex ratios, panel study of income dynamics
    JEL: J22
    Date: 2018–01
  8. By: Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Essex); Brulé, Rachel (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Roy, Sanchari (King's College London)
    Abstract: We investigate whether legislation of equal inheritance rights for women modifies the historic preference for sons in India, and find that it exacerbates it. Children born after the reform in families with a first-born daughter are 3.8–4.3 percentage points less likely to be girls, indicating that the reform encouraged female foeticide. We also find that the reform increased excess female infant mortality and son-biased fertility stopping. This suggests that the inheritance reform raised the costs of having daughters, consistent with which we document an increase in stated son preference in fertility post-reform. We conclude that this is a case where legal reform was frustrated by persistence of cultural norms. We provide some suggestive evidence of slowly changing patrilocality norms.
    Keywords: inheritance rights, ultrasound, female foeticide, sex selection, son preference, gender, India
    JEL: O12 K11 I21
    Date: 2017–12
  9. By: Guido Matias Cortes; Nir Jaimovich; Henry E. Siu
    Abstract: We document a new finding regarding changes in labor market outcomes for men and women in the US. Since 1980, conditional on being a college-educated man, the probability of working in a cognitive/high-wage occupation has fallen. This contrasts starkly with the experience for college-educated women: their probability of working in these occupations rose, despite a much larger increase in the supply of educated women relative to men. We consider these facts in light of a general neoclassical model of the labor market. One key channel capable of rationalizing these findings is a greater increase in the demand for female-oriented skills in cognitive/high-wage occupations relative to other occupations. Using occupation-level data, we find evidence that this relative increase in the demand for female skills is due to an increasing importance of social skills within such occupations. Evidence from both male and female wages is also indicative of an increase in the demand for social skills.
    JEL: E24 J16 J23
    Date: 2018–02
  10. By: Bhalotra, Sonia R. (University of Essex); Kambhampati, Uma (University of Reading); Rawlings, Samantha (University of Reading); Siddique, Zahra (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of business cycle variation on intimate partner violence using representative data from thirty one developing countries, through 2005 to 2016. We distinguish male from female unemployment rates, identifying the influence of each conditional upon the other. We find that a one percent increase in the male unemployment rate increases the incidence of physical violence against women by 0.50 percentage points, or 2.75 percent. This is consistent with the financial and psychological stress generated by unemployment. Increases in female unemployment rates (corresponding to decreases in women's employment opportunities), conditional upon rates of male unemployment reduce the incidence of violence; a one percent increase being associated with a decrease in the probability of victimization of 0.52 percentage points, or 2.87 percent. This is consistent with 'male backlash'. These patterns of behaviour are stronger among better educated women and weaker among women who have had at least one son.
    Keywords: intimate partner violence, women's labour force participation
    JEL: D19 J11 J12
    Date: 2018–01
  11. By: Alessandro Ferrari (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Data demonstrate a correlation between demographic variables and financial cycle: an increase in the working-age population is associated with an expansion of the financial cycle, that is, credit growth and increased housing prices. To account for this stylized fact, this paper uses an OLG model with data on housing prices, life-cycle of income, and consumption. A transitory baby boom, which increases the working-age population, leads to higher housing prices and household borrowing.
    Keywords: financial cycle, demographic trends, overlapping generations, housing
    JEL: D53 E21 E32 J11
    Date: 2017–12

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