nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2017‒02‒12
eight papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
ifo Institut

  1. Explaining the Consequences of Paternal Incarceration for Children's Behavioral Problems By Allison Dwyer Emory
  2. Labour Shortages and Replacement Demand in Germany. The (Non-)Consequences of Demographic Change By Garloff, Alfred; Wapler, Rüdiger
  3. Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare: Evidence from European Countries By Hippolyte d'Albis; Paula E. Gobbi; Angela Greulich
  4. No Gender Difference in Willingness to Compete When Competing against Self By Coren L. Apicella; Elif E. Demiral; Johanna Mollerstrom
  5. The Occupational Selection of Emigrants By Patt, Alexander; Flores, Miguel; Ruhose, Jens; Wiederhold, Simon
  6. Economic Theories of Citizenship? By DeVoretz, Don J.; Irastorza, Nahikari
  7. The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries By Olivetti, Claudia; Petrongolo, Barbara
  8. The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on the Labor Supply, Savings, and Social Security of Older Americans By Eric French; Hans-Martin von Gaudecker; John Bailey Jones

  1. By: Allison Dwyer Emory (Cornell University)
    Abstract: Paternal incarceration has consistently been linked with aggression and acting-out in children, yet mechanisms underlying these behavioral problems remain unclear. Identifying these paths is essential for understanding how incarceration contributes to intergenerational disadvantage and determining how best to mitigate these collateral consequences for children. This article tests the extent to which changes incarceration imposes on children’s families after incarceration fill this important gap. Two key findings emerge from structural equation models using the longitudinal Fragile Families study. First, changes occurring within the child’s family account for nearly half of the total association between recent paternal incarceration and aggressive or externalizing behavior. Second, the father's disengagement from the family and increased material hardship are the strongest and most consistent mechanisms. These findings suggest that targeting these two co-occurring hardships that families face when an incarceration occurs may be valuable for addressing child behavior.
    JEL: J13
    Date: 2017–01
  2. By: Garloff, Alfred; Wapler, Rüdiger
    Abstract: Two stylised facts of the German labour market are that first, the demand for highskilled labour has been growing rapidly for a number of years and second, the Country is facing a particularly strong demographic change with the expected size of the Population decreasing rapidly and the average age of the labour force increasing sharply. This has led to a widely discussed fear of “labour shortages”. One of the reasons often stated in the public debate is that within a given time period many more old individuals are retiring than young individuals are entering the labour market. Although there is a certain logic in this argument, it is only prima facie convincing because firstly, a Change in labour demand could counteract this effect and secondly, it is unclear whether – given labour demand for the occupations people retire from – people retiring from the labour market are normally “replaced” by young cohorts entering the labour market. Thirdly, even if the size of a cohort differs between generations, it is by no means clear what the effects on labour supply are as, for example, the participation rates may also differ. We address these issues from a theoretical and empirical perspective. In the theoretical part we focus on the relationship between vacancies and unemployment (labour-market tightness) and show that it does not always increase with demographic change. In the empirical part, we analyse how employment is affected over time by different shares of different age cohorts. We find no evidence that a higher number of retirees in an occupation leads to a higher demand for younger workers. Instead, to a large extent, retirees seem to be “replaced”, if they are replaced at all, by middle-aged cohorts who change occupations. Thus, we conclude that the interaction between large retiring cohorts and small entering cohorts within occupations is less direct than is suggested in the public debate.
    JEL: J11 J21 J26
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Hippolyte d'Albis (Paris School of Economics); Paula E. Gobbi (Université Catholique de Louvain); Angela Greulich (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne and INED)
    Abstract: This paper shows that differences in fertility across European countries mainly emerge due to fewer women having two children in low fertility countries. It further suggests that childcare services are an important determinant for the transition to a second child to occur. The theoretical framework we propose suggests that: (i) in countries where childcare coverage is low, there is a U-shaped relationship between a couple's probability of having a second child and the woman's potential wage while (ii) in countries with easy access to childcare, this probability is positively related with the woman's potential wage. Data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) confirm these implications when estimating a woman's probability of having a second child as a function of education. This implies that middle income women are the most affected ones by the lack of access to formal and subsidized childcare
    Keywords: Childcare; Education; Fertility; Female Employment
    JEL: J11 J13 J16 O11
    Date: 2017–01
  4. By: Coren L. Apicella; Elif E. Demiral; Johanna Mollerstrom
    Abstract: We report on two experiments investigating whether there is a gender difference in thewillingness to compete against oneself (self-competition), similar to what is found whencompeting against others (other-competition). In one laboratory and one online marketexperiment, involving a total of 1,200 participants, we replicate the gender-gap inwillingness to other-compete but find no evidence of a gender difference in the willingnessto self-compete. We explore the roles of risk and confidence and suggest that these factorscan account for the different findings. Finally, we document that self-competition does noworse than other-competition in terms of performance boosting.
    Keywords: gender, competition, discrimination, experiment
    JEL: C90 C91 J16 J71
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Patt, Alexander; Flores, Miguel; Ruhose, Jens; Wiederhold, Simon
    Abstract: The current literature that investigates the selection of Mexican migrants to the United States focuses on selectivity in educational attainment and earnings. Notably absent from the literature is evidence on occupational selection, because it is unclear how to measure the skill content of Mexican occupations. However, any such research would yield important insights regarding the selection on labor-market skills that Mexicans carry with them to the United States. We use data from a representative Mexican worker survey—equivalent to the U.S. O*NET—to develop novel measures of cognitive and manual skills for migrants based on their pre-migration occupational history, and compare them to the skills of Mexicans who do not migrate. Using detailed longitudinal micro-level data from two Mexican labor surveys, the Mexican Migration Project, and the Mexican Family Life Survey, our analysis consistently shows that migrants have lower cognitive and higher manual skills than non-migrants. This finding is robust to controlling for age, gender, and educational attainment and also holds within broader occupational groups. Despite substantial changes in emigration rates over time, we also document that occupational selection is highly persistent.
    JEL: F22 O15 J61
    Date: 2016
  6. By: DeVoretz, Don J. (Simon Fraser University); Irastorza, Nahikari (Malmö University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship of immigrant citizenship ascension and the effect on the naturalized citizen's economic outcomes in Europe and North America. We offer a unique model and empirical outcomes to define optimal waiting periods for immigrant ascension to citizenship by entry class and human capital requirements for country specific examples.
    Keywords: immigrant, citizenship, benefits
    JEL: J15 J61
    Date: 2017–01
  7. By: Olivetti, Claudia (Boston College); Petrongolo, Barbara (Queen Mary, University of London)
    Abstract: We draw lessons from existing work and our own analysis on the effects of parental leave and other interventions aimed at aiding families. The outcomes of interest are female employment, gender gaps in earnings and fertility. We begin with a discussion of the historical introduction of family policies ever since the end of the nineteenth century and then turn to the details regarding family policies currently in effect across high-income nations. We sketch a framework concerning the effects of family policy to motivate our country- and micro-level evidence on the impact of family policies on gender outcomes. Most estimates of the impact of parental leave entitlement on female labor market outcomes range from negligible to weakly positive. The verdict is far more positive for the beneficial impact of spending on early education and childcare.
    Keywords: parental leave, childcare, family policies, gender gaps
    JEL: J13 J16 J18
    Date: 2017–01
  8. By: Eric French (University College London); Hans-Martin von Gaudecker (Universität Bonn); John Bailey Jones (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and University at Albany, SUNY)
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effect of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on the labor supply of Americans ages 50 and older. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we estimate a dynamic programming model of retirement that accounts for both saving and uncertain medical expenses. Importantly, we model the two key channels by which health insurance rates are predicted to change: the Medicaid expansion and the subsidized private exchanges.
    Date: 2016–10

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