nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2016‒06‒25
seven papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
ifo Institut

  1. Beyond occupation : the evolution of gender segregation over the life course By Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Mora, Ricardo; Guinea-Martin, Daniel
  2. A new model for interdependent durations with an application to joint retirement By Bo Honoré; Áureo de Paula
  3. Fighting youth unemployment in Germany, Austria and the UK By Michal Ludwikowski
  4. Women's empowerment, sibling rivalry, and competitiveness: evidence from a lab experiment and a randomized control trial in Uganda By Buehren,Niklas; Goldstein,Markus P.; Leonard,Kenneth; Montalvao,Joao; Vasilaky,Kathryn
  5. Family Policies and Female Employment in Japan By Shintaro Yamaguchi
  6. The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer By Geiger, Felix; Muellbauer, John; Rupprecht, Manuel
  7. Determinants of Internal Migration in Indonesia By Hera Susanti; Arie Damayanti

  1. By: Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Mora, Ricardo; Guinea-Martin, Daniel
    Abstract: We argue that gender segregation stems from sources beyond occupation, the traditional domain of study: women and men differ not only in their occupational allocation but also in their time involvement in paid work, in their decisions to participate in the labor market at all and in their retirement age. We pool 21 Labour Force Surveys for the United Kingdom to measure and compare these various forms of segregation (occupational, temporal and economic) over the 1993-2013 period (n = 1,815,482). The analysis relies on the Strong Group Decomposability property of the Mutual Information index to identify the evolution of segregation over the life course net of cohort and period effects. There are two main findings. First, over the life course, the evolution of gender segregation parallels the inverted U-shaped pattern of the employment rate. When workers are younger, measures of all concepts of segregation are small. Then, gender segregation increases due to a combination of economic and time-related components. After the prime childbearing years, gender segregation remains fairly stable for approximately 15 years, sustained by expanding occupational segregation; finally, in the later years, gender segregation decreases substantially. Second, gender segregation is consistently 20% higher than occupational segregation after the teenage years. However, as much as 44% of gender segregation at age 35 and 52% at age 64 would remain even if occupations were completely desegregated. These ages correspond to two key stages in the life course: career and family building on the one hand and retirement on the other.
    Keywords: segregation; retirement, segregation; parttime; occupations; Mutual Information index; life course; gender; employment
    Date: 2016–06
  2. By: Bo Honoré (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Princeton); Áureo de Paula (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. Another feature of the proposed model is that it will generate equal durations with positive probability. The motivating example is retirement decisions by married couples. In that example it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that each partner's optimal retirement time depends on the retirement time of the spouse. Moreover, the data suggest that the wife and the husband retire at the same time for a nonnegligible fraction of couples. Our approach takes as a starting point a stylized economic model that leads to a univariate generalized accelerated failure time model. The covariates of that generalized accelerated failure time model act as utility-flow shifters in the economic model. We introduce simultaneity by allowing the utility flow in retirement to depend on the retirement status of the spouse. The econometric model is then completed by assuming that the observed outcome is the Nash bargaining solution in that simple economic model. The advantage of this approach is that it includes independent realizations from the generalized accelerated failure time model as a special case, and deviations from this special case can be given an economic interpretation. We illustrate the model by studying the joint retirement decisions in married couples using the Health and Retirement Study. We provide a discussion of relevant identifying variation and estimate our model using indirect inference. The main empirical nding is that the simultaneity seems economically important. In our preferred speci cation the indirect utility associated with being retired increases by approximately 5% when one's spouse retires. The estimated model also predicts that the marginal eff ect of a change in the husbands' pension plan on wives' retirement dates is about 3.3% of the direct eff ect on the husbands'.
    JEL: J26 C41 C3
    Date: 2016–02–17
  3. By: Michal Ludwikowski (Nicolaus Copernicus University)
    Abstract: The issue of the rising number of unemployed young people affects numerous developed countries. The article seeks to discuss methods of addressing the problem of youth unemployment as well as the results of strategies applied in Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom. For Austria and Germany the key issue in combating youth unemployment was the emphasis on acquiring practical experience on early stage of education. In case of the UK however, it was a scheme of financial incentives for employers.
    Keywords: unemployment; youth; labour market; Germany; Austria
    JEL: J01 J21 J29
    Date: 2016–06
  4. By: Buehren,Niklas; Goldstein,Markus P.; Leonard,Kenneth; Montalvao,Joao; Vasilaky,Kathryn
    Abstract: This study looks at how a community event?adolescent women's economic and social empowerment -- and a family factor -- sibling sex composition?interact in shaping gender differences in preferences for competition. To do so, a lab-in-the-field experiment is conducted using competitive games layered over the randomized rollout of a community program that empowered adolescent girls in Uganda. In contrast with the literature, the study finds no gender differences in competitiveness among adolescents, on average. It also finds no evidence of differences in competitiveness between girls in treatment and control communities, on average. However, in line with the literature, in control communities the study finds that boys surrounded by sisters are less competitive. Strikingly, this pattern is reversed in treatment communities, where boys surrounded by (empowered) sisters are more competitive.
    Keywords: Anthropology,Gender and Development,Gender and Social Development,Gender and Law,Adolescent Health
    Date: 2016–06–07
  5. By: Shintaro Yamaguchi
    Abstract: This paper discusses how childcare and parental leave policies affect female employment by reviewing the international evidence and recent papers on Japan. These papers estimate causal effects of policies by exploiting policy changes, which is a more credible identification strategy than earlier observational studies. The literature on parental leave finds that a more generous leave package tends to delay mothers’ return to work, but it does not have detrimental effects on maternal labor supply in the medium to long run. Some papers also find that job protection around one year can increase maternal employment, but longer job protection has little additional effects. The literature on childcare policies finds that maternal employment does not necessarily increase, because the expansion of childcare may crowd out informal childcare arrangements, such as care provided by grandparents. Findings by recent papers on Japan are largely consistent with the international evidence.
    Keywords: childcare, parental leave, maternal employment, nuclear family, three-generation family
    JEL: J13 J21 J24
    Date: 2016–06
  6. By: Geiger, Felix; Muellbauer, John; Rupprecht, Manuel
    Abstract: House price booms in Anglo-Saxon economies and their collapse were an important part of the financial accelerator via consumption, construction and the banking system. This paper examines links for Germany between household portfolios, income and consumption in a six-equation system, for 1980-2012 data, for consumption, house prices, consumer credit, housing loans, liquid assets and permanent income with latent variables representing the shifts in the availability of the two types of credit. We find evidence of well specified consumption and house price functions and that Germany differs greatly from the Anglo-Saxon economies: rising house prices do not translate into higher consumer spending. This suggests that the transmission of monetary policy via asset prices, in particular house prices, on consumption is likely to be less effective, and any financial accelerator weaker, in Germany than in the US or the UK. There is little evidence of overvaluation of German house prices by 2012. JEL Classification: E21, E27, E44, E51, E58
    Keywords: consumption, credit conditions, credit market liberalization, household debt, housing collateral, monetary transmission
    Date: 2016–05
  7. By: Hera Susanti; Arie Damayanti (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia)
    Abstract: We analyse the behavior of internal migration in Indonesia and estimate factors influenced the migrants’s decision to return. We adopt the international migration model to estimate the duration periods of the Indonesian internal migration. The characteristic variables are developed from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data within period of 1993-2007, while the control variables are using various regional data fron the National Statistical Bureau of Statistics. The main conclusion indicates that the return decision was mainly influenced by the opportunity to increase migrant welfares. Hence, migrants’s characteristic and education level proved to affect the duration. The migrants’s engagement to their family and community was remain strong, and even stronger if the status of the home region was rural area. The duration also tends to be longer after the implementation of regional autonomy.
    Keywords: Migration Duration, Internal Migration, Return Migration, Survival Analysis, IFLS
    JEL: C41 J61 O15
    Date: 2015–10

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