nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2015‒08‒30
seven papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
ifo Institut

  1. Fertility Convergence By De-Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
  2. The contribution patterns of equity-crowdfunding investors: Gender, Risk aversion and Observational learning By Mohammadi, Ali; Shafi, Kourosh
  3. Parental Incentives and Early Childhood Achievement: A Field Experiment in Chicago Heights By Roland G. Fryer, Jr.; Steven D. Levitt; John A. List
  4. Income and Earnings Mobility in U.S. Tax Data By Larrimore, Jeff; Mortenson, Jacob; Splinter, David
  5. Childhood Homelessness and Adult Employment: The Role of Education, Incarceration, and Welfare Receipt By Cobb-Clark, Deborah A.; Zhu, Anna
  6. Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada By Compton, Janice; Tedds, Lindsay
  7. Trip-timing decisions and congestion with household scheduling preferences By André De Palma; Robin Lindsey; Nathalie Picard

  1. By: De-Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
    Abstract: A vast literature has sought to explain large cross-country differences in fertility rates. Income, mortality, urbanization, and female labour force participation, among other socioeconomic variables, have been suggested as explanatory factors for the differences. This paper points out that cross-country differences in fertility rates have fallen very rapidly over the past four decades, with most countries converging to a rate just above two children per woman. This absolute convergence took place despite the limited (or absent) absolute convergence in other economic variables. The rapid decline in fertility rates taking place in developing economies stands in sharp contrast with the slow decline experienced earlier by more mature economies. The preferred number of children has also fallen, suggesting a shift to a small-family norm. The convergence to replacement rates will lead to a stable world population, reducing environmental concerns over explosive population growth. In this paper we explore existing explanations and bring in an additional factor influencing fertility rates: the population programs started in the 1960s, which, we argue, have accelerated the global decline in fertility rates over the past four decades.
    Keywords: fertility; macro-development; population policies
    JEL: O10 O11
    Date: 2015–08
  2. By: Mohammadi, Ali (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Shafi, Kourosh (Department of Management, Economics, and Industrial Engineering, Politecnico di Milano)
    Abstract: The scholars and popular news has argued that new form of investment through online platform known as equity Crowfunding increases the gender equality in financial market for both entrepreneurs and investors. In this paper we investigate whether there are gender-differences in the behavior of investors in firms seeking equity financing in comparison with other settings (e.g. stock market, pension saving). Using data from Swedish equity crowdfunding platform– Fundedbyme, we find that only 20% of investors are female. We also find female investors are less likely to invest in the equity of younger firms, high-technology firms, and those firms with higher percentage of equity offerings. This pattern seems consistent with more risk-aversion of female investors compared to male ones. Furthermore, women are more likely to invest in projects in which proportion of male investors is higher. Overall our result shows that there are not major in pattern of investment between equity crowdfunding and other traditional investment settings.
    Keywords: Equity crowdfunding; Gender; Herding; Observational learning; Risk-aversion
    JEL: G02 G11 G20 M13
    Date: 2015–08–21
  3. By: Roland G. Fryer, Jr.; Steven D. Levitt; John A. List
    Abstract: This article describes a randomized field experiment in which parents were provided financial incentives to engage in behaviors designed to increase early childhood cognitive and executive function skills through a parent academy. Parents were rewarded for attendance at early childhood sessions, completing homework assignments with their children, and for their child’s demonstration of mastery on interim assessments. This intervention had large and statistically significant positive impacts on both cognitive and non-cognitive test scores of Hispanics and Whites, but no impact on Blacks. These differential outcomes across races are not attributable to differences in observable characteristics (e.g. family size, mother’s age, mother’s education) or to the intensity of engagement with the program. Children with above median (pre-treatment) non cognitive scores accrue the most benefits from treatment.
    JEL: I20 J01
    Date: 2015–08
  4. By: Larrimore, Jeff (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Mortenson, Jacob (Georgetown University); Splinter, David (Joint Committee on Taxation)
    Abstract: We use a large panel of federal income tax data to investigate intragenerational income mobility in the United States. We have two primary objectives. First, we explore the determinants of two-year changes in individual labor earnings and family incomes, such as job or industry changes, marriage, divorce, and geographic mobility. Second, we evaluate how federal income taxes stabilize or destabilize post-tax income changes relative to pre-tax changes. We find a relatively high degree of income mobility, with almost half of workers exhibiting earnings increases or decreases of at least 25 percent, and two-fifths of tax units experiencing income changes of this magnitude. Male and female labor income mobility patterns are remarkably similar, though marriage is associated with earnings gains among men, but is associated with modest earnings declines among women. We also observe that large income gains are most likely among families that add workers - either through marriage or through a second family member entering the workforce.
    Keywords: Administrative data; income mobility; post-tax income
    JEL: D31 H24
    Date: 2015–07–30
  5. By: Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Melbourne); Zhu, Anna (University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the long-term consequences of children experiencing homelessness. Our primary goal is to assess the importance of the potential pathways linking childhood homelessness to adult employment. We use novel panel data that link survey and administrative data for a sample of disadvantaged adults who are homeless or at risk of homelessness. We find that those experiencing homelessness for the first time as children are less likely to be employed than those who were never homeless as a child. For women, this relationship is largely explained by the lower educational attainment and higher welfare receipt (both in general and in the form of mental illness-related disability payments) of those experiencing childhood homelessness. Higher rates of high-school incompletion and incarceration explain some of the link between childhood homelessness and men's employment, however, childhood homelessness continues to have a substantial direct effect on male employment rates.
    Keywords: employment, homelessness, welfare receipt, education, incarceration
    JEL: J1 J2 I2
    Date: 2015–08
  6. By: Compton, Janice; Tedds, Lindsay
    Abstract: It is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. While historically this seasonal pattern has been linked to exogenous factors, modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice. If birth month of a child is at least partially chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy. This paper explores the effect that the 2001 extension of paid parental leave benefits had on birth seasonality in Canada. Overall we find strong results that the pattern of birth seasonality in Canada changed after 2001, with a notable fall in spring births and an increase in late summer and early fall births. We discuss the potential effects of this unintended consequence, including those related to health and development, educational preparedness and outcomes, and econometric modelling.
    Keywords: birth seasonality, policy determinants, parental leave, Canada
    JEL: H30 J13 J38
    Date: 2015–08–25
  7. By: André De Palma (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X, ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan); Robin Lindsey (Sauder - Sauder School of Business [British Columbia] - University of British Columbia); Nathalie Picard (THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - Université de Cergy Pontoise - CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X)
    Abstract: Most traffic congestion models assume that agents make trip-timing decisions independently and receive payoffs at the origin and destination that do not depend on whether other agents are present. We depart from this paradigm by considering a variant of Vickrey's bottleneck model of the morning commute in which individuals live as couples and value time at home more when together than when alone. We show that the costs of congestion can be higher than for a comparable population of individuals living alone. The costs can be even higher if spouses collaborate with each other when choosing their departure times. To calibrate the model we estimate trip-timing preferences for married and unmarried men and women in the Greater Paris region. Jel Classifications: D11, D70, R41.
    Date: 2015–02–17

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