nep-dem New Economics Papers
on Demographic Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒20
nine papers chosen by
Michele Battisti
ifo Institut

  1. Delaying the normal and early retirement ages in Spain: behavioural and welfare consequences for employed and unemployed workers By Alfonso R. Sánchez; J. Ignacio García Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
  2. Girls for Sale? Child Sex Ratio and Girls Trafficking in India By Prakash, Nishith; Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya
  3. International Migration of Couples By Junge, Martin; Munk, Martin D.; Poutvaara, Panu
  4. Family Structure and the Education Gender Gap: Evidence from Italian Provinces By Bertocchi, Graziella; Bozzano, Monica
  5. Marital Disruption and Health Insurance By H. Elizabeth Peters; Kosali Simon; Jamie Rubenstein Taber
  6. Educational assortative mating and household income inequality By Eika, Lasse; Mogstad, Magne; Zafar, Basit
  7. Population with immigration: Turkey and the EU. Does a young population remedy to the aged? By Özdemir, Durmuş; Rosch, Angi
  8. Women’s employment makes unions more stable, if the male partners contribute to the unpaid household work By Letizia Mencarini; Daniele Vignoli
  9. Political Booms, Financial Crises By Helios Herrera; Guillermo Ordoñez; Christoph Trebesch

  1. By: Alfonso R. Sánchez; J. Ignacio García Pérez; Sergi Jiménez-Martín
    Abstract: In this paper, we explore the links between pension reform, early retirement, and the use of unemployment as an alternative pathway to retirement. We use a dynamic rational expectations model to analyze the search and retirement behaviour of employed and unemployed workers aged 50 or over. The model is calibrated to reproduce the main reemployment and retirement patterns observed between 2002 and 2008 in Spain. It is subsequently used to analyze the effects of the 2011 pension reform in Spain, characterized by two-year delays in both the early and the normal retirement ages. We find that this reform generates large increases in labour supply and sizable cuts in pension costs, but these are achieved at the expense of very large welfare losses, especially among unemployed workers. As an alternative, we propose leaving the early retirement age unchanged, but penalizing the minimum pension (reducing its generosity in parallel to the cuts imposed on individual pension benefits, and making it more actuarially fair with age). This alternative reform strikes a better balance between individual welfare and labour supply stimulus.
    Date: 2014–06
  2. By: Prakash, Nishith (University of Connecticut); Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU))
    Abstract: Illegal trafficking of women is a result of their disadvantageous position in the society that is often reflected in increasing preference for son and neglect for daughters. Multiple reports point to India as country confronted with both higher levels of illegal trafficking of girls and abnormal child sex ratios in favor of boys. In this paper we examine if a skewed sex ratio and shortage of girls is associated with their illegal trafficking in India. Using panel data of 29 Indian states from 1980-2011, we find that 100 unit increase in child sex ratio is associated with 0.635% increase in illegal trafficking of girls. We find the association to be heterogeneous by female empowerment, crime against women and party rule in the state. We find that association between child sex ratio and illegal trafficking of girls is stronger and larger in magnitude in states with greater female empowerment. Overall, it appears that the results are driven by both greater reporting and greater incidence of illegal girls trafficking. Contrary to popular belief, the results do not vary differentially by states with larger share of schedule tribe population or states bordering Nepal and Bangladesh. Our results survive variety of robustness checks.
    Keywords: child sex ratio, girls trafficking, India
    JEL: J10 O12 R23 Z12
    Date: 2014–06
  3. By: Junge, Martin (DEA (Danish Business Research Academy)); Munk, Martin D. (Aalborg University); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich)
    Abstract: We present a theory on migration of dual-earner couples and test it in the context of international migration. Our model predicts that the probability that a couple emigrates increases in the home-country earnings of the primary earner. The effect of the home-country earnings of the secondary earner may go either way. We test our theory using population-wide Danish administrative data from 1982 to 2010. We analyze migration decisions separately for couples in which men earned more and couples in which women earned more. The empirical results for dual-earner couples are in line with the theory. The elasticity of the probability of emigration with respect to the primary earner's income is very large. When analyzing emigration for 5 or more years the elasticity of the probability of emigration varies between 1.6 and 3.6 for groups with female primary earner and between 2.4 and 3.1 for groups with male primary earner. The elasticity with respect to the secondary earner's income varies in sign and is generally small. Primary earners in couples are more strongly self-selected with respect to their income than singles. This is a novel result that runs against the intuition that family ties weaken self-selection. Secondary earners in couples, on the other hand, are more weakly self-selected with respect to their income than singles. College education of either partner makes couples more, and having children makes couples less mobile. Power couples are most likely to emigrate, but also most likely to return.
    Keywords: education, family migration, international migration, gender differences, dual-earner couples
    JEL: F22 J12 J16 J24
    Date: 2014–07
  4. By: Bertocchi, Graziella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Bozzano, Monica (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia)
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of the education gender gap in Italy in historical perspective with a focus on the influence of family structure. We capture the latter with two indicators: residential habits (nuclear vs. complex families) and inheritance rules (partition vs. primogeniture). After controlling for economic, institutional, religious, and cultural factors, we find that over the 1861-1901 period family structure is a driver of the education gender gap, with a higher female to male enrollment rate ratio in upper primary schools being associated with nuclear residential habits and equal partition of inheritance. We also find that only the effect of inheritance rules persists over the 1971-2001 period.
    Keywords: education gender gap, Italian Unification, family types, inheritance, institutions, religion, convergence
    JEL: E02 H75 I25 J16 N33 O15
    Date: 2014–07
  5. By: H. Elizabeth Peters; Kosali Simon; Jamie Rubenstein Taber
    Abstract: Despite the high levels of marital disruption in the United States, and substantial reliance on family-based health insurance, little research is available on the consequences of marital disruption for insurance coverage among men, women, and children. We address this shortfall by examining patterns of coverage surrounding marital disruption. We find large differences in coverage across marital status groups in the cross-section. In longitudinal analyses that focus on within-person change, we find small overall coverage changes but large changes in type of coverage following marital disruption. Both men and women show increases in private coverage in their own names, but offsetting decreases in dependent coverage tend to be larger. Dependent coverage for children also declines after marital dissolution, even though children are still likely to be eligible for that coverage. Children and, to a lesser extent, women show increases in public coverage around the time of divorce or separation. The most vulnerable group appears to be lower-educated women with children because the increases in private, own-name, and public insurance are not large enough to offset the large decrease in dependent coverage. As the United States implements federal health reform, it is critical that we understand the ways in which life course events—specifically, marital disruption—shape the dynamic patterns of coverage.
    JEL: I13 J12
    Date: 2014–06
  6. By: Eika, Lasse; Mogstad, Magne; Zafar, Basit (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: We investigate the pattern of educational assortative mating, its evolution over time, and its impact on household income inequality. To these ends, we use rich data from the United States and Norway over the period 1980-2007. We find evidence of positive assortative mating at all levels of education in both countries. However, the time trends vary by the level of education: Among college graduates, assortative mating has been declining over time, whereas individuals with a low level of education are increasingly sorting into internally homogenous marriages. When looking within the group of college educated, we find strong but declining assortative mating by academic major. These findings motivate and guide a decomposition analysis, where we quantify the contribution of various factors to the distribution of household income. We find that educational assortative mating accounts for a non-negligible part of the cross-sectional inequality in household income. However, changes in assortative mating over time barely move the time trends in household income inequality. The reason is that the decline in assortative mating among the highly educated is offset by an increase in assortative mating among the less educated. By comparison, increases in the returns to education over time generate a considerable rise in household income inequality, but these price effects are partly mitigated by increases in college attendance and completion rates among women.
    Keywords: assortative mating; education; inequality; household income; marriage
    JEL: D31 I24 J12
    Date: 2014–08–01
  7. By: Özdemir, Durmuş; Rosch, Angi
    Abstract: Annual population growth rate in Turkey is as high as 1.1 per cent, while many EU countries have shrinking, and hence ageing, populations. In this paper we consider an age-structured population that consists of female natives and Turkish immigrants into the EU. Immigrants’ fertility and mortality schedule may differ from that of EU natives, their children may adopt it. We apply a discrete-time Leslie-type model which allows for immigration and the study of its long-run effects. We examine the contribution of EU natives and Turkish immigrants to the EU population in terms of age-specific reproductive values which measure the value of one female of a given age as a seed for future population growth. Genealogies are derived in terms of the realisations of a corresponding Markov chain running backward in time.
    Keywords: Turkey and the EU; ageing populations; immigration; stochastic demography; stable populations; discrete-time Leslie-type model; age-specific reproductive values; Markov chain; genealogy
    JEL: J11 J15
    Date: 2005–05–09
  8. By: Letizia Mencarini (Università di Torino & Collegio Carlo Alberto); Daniele Vignoli (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze)
    Abstract: A new generation of studies has called into question standard microeconomic predictions of a positive association between women’s economic independence and union dissolution, and suggests that it is necessary to include information about both partners’ contributions to paid and unpaid work when conducting empirical tests of the impact of women’s employment on union stability. In this study, we follow this strand of research and use data on couples from the 2003 and 2007 waves of the Italian “Family and Social Subject” survey, with the aim of investigating whether and how the gender division of labor channels the causal impact of women’s employment on union disruption. Utilizing techniques of mediation analysis, we suggest that women’s employment does not have a negative effect per se on union stability, and that women’s paid work becomes detrimental to the stability of the union only if the male partner’s contribution to unpaid work is scarce. We found that the impact of women’s employment on union dissolution is positive only when 70% or more of the housework is performed by women.
    Keywords: Marital dissolution; Women's employment; Men's contribution to unpaid work; Italy; Mediation analysis
    JEL: J00 J12
    Date: 2014–07
  9. By: Helios Herrera (Department of Applied Economics, HEC); Guillermo Ordoñez (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Christoph Trebesch (Department of Economics, University of Munich and CESifo)
    Abstract: We show that political booms, measured by the rise in governments’ popularity, predict financial crises above and beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in emerging economies. We show that governments in emerging economies are more concerned about their reputation and tend to ride the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies that would help prevent potential crises. We provide evidence of the relevance of this reputation mechanism.
    Keywords: Credit Booms, Reputation, Financial Crises, Political Popularity, Emerging Markets
    JEL: D81 D82 E44 E51 E58 G01 N10 N20
    Date: 2014–07–23

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